Mazz: Initial takeaways from the Red Sox signing of Alex Bregman
Now that the Red Sox and Alex Bregman have agreed on a three-year, $120 million contract that isn’t really three years and $120 million, let’s start with the most obvious response.
Well, it’s about f—ing time.
According to multiple reports beginning at roughly 10:25 p.m., the Red Sox agreed to terms with the free-agent infielder for what, at the outset, looks like the largest average annual salary ($40 million a year) ever paid to a Red Sox player. Bregman has opt-outs following both the 2025 and 2026 seasons, meaning this is effectively a series of one-year deals – at least from the player’s perspective.
Over the last couple of days, the Red Sox have been hinting at the likelihood of more moves, which isn’t a shock. The way baseball operates now, the offseason extends into spring training, when many signings still take place. (Former Sox pitcher Nick Pivetta similarly agreed last night with the San Diego Padres.) Nonetheless, the arrival of Bregman gives the Red Sox some much-needed credibility because he has been a credible, proven winner, two words that haven’t exactly been linked with the Red Sox for some time.
All of that said, let’s try to anticipate and answer some of the obvious questions.
Is Bregman still an All-Star-caliber player?
Probably not, but he’s still better than what they have. Frankly, Bregman has only been an All-Star twice in his career – 2018 and 2019, two years of his career that now look like outliers. That said, he is a former Silver Slugger and Gold Glove winner who has played in 99 career postseason games and been a part of two World Series winners.
Bregman has generally been a complete player with a reputation for being feisty and competitive. The Red Sox needed a veteran player to set a standard in the clubhouse and in the daily lineup, and Bregman seems to fill much of that. If that means he is as much a signing for culture and leadership, so be it. He should provide a good role model for young players like Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell, no to mention Triston Casas.
Is the contract structure good or bad?
Well, that depends on how you look at it. If Bregman has a great year and opts back into the free-agent market, you’re probably going to be agitated. If he stinks and stays here on a deal worth, let’s say, $30-$40 million in present value, you’re probably going to be more agitated. So the bottom line is that you’ll be happy as long as he plays reasonably well.
This much I know: the Red Sox are absolutely THRILLED with this contract. In fact, I wonder whether John Henry, after lighting up a cigar, went sprinting around his neighborhood in his skivvies. (OK, it’s a frightening image.) Though they have rarely executed it to this degree, the Red Sox have always said they’d rather overpay on a short-term contract than commit to a six- or seven-year deal. That’s precisely what they did here with Bregman, who could be gone in a year. By then, presumably, Campbell will be prepared to play every day – if he’s not already.
And if Bregman stays? Well, that brings us to the next question:
Where does Bregman fit in the lineup?
For starters, one must assume that Bregman will play second base and bat in the top five of the lineup, maybe as high as second, maybe as low as fifth. An opinion. Assuming that the left-handed-hitting Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers will now bat first and third, respectively, the right-handed-hitting Trevor Story and Bregman should settle in the Nos. 2 and 4 holes, in some order.
Personally, I like Story better in the 2-hole and Bregman in the cleanup position – and for a couple of reasons. First, Story is faster and more of a threat to steal. Second, Bregman is a tougher out – or at least he has been – which makes him a better option with runners in scoring position. The obvious question is whether Story can make enough contact to get on base consistently. In a championship-caliber lineup, Story really should be hitting sixth or seventh at this stage. If the right-handed-hitting Campbell blossoms, that could happen.
One final thing: part of the reason the Sox undoubtedly preferred Bregman to Nolan Arenado is his flexibility. For starters, the aging Arenado has shown more decline and less positional flexibility. Bregman can start at second base and then move to third if and when Campbell plays second or Rafael Devers transfers to another position (first base or designated hitter). If the Sox need pitching down the road, they could trade Triston Casas (unsignable?) or someone like Jarren Duran, Marcelo Mayer … whoever. You get the idea. Good players are commodities. You can always find something to do with them.
How much has Bregman declined?
That’s hard to know until we see him every day, so here are the numbers: from 2022 through 2024, Bregman’s OPS has gone from .821 to .804 to .768. As the risk of sounding like Tyler Milliken, his OPS+ (relative to other players) has gone from 134 to 122 to 118. That last number of 118 basically means that, offensively, Bregman was 18 percent better than the average player at his position. By contrast, someone like Arenado now grades as average at his position – and is sinking even faster. (In Arenado’s case, his OPS has gone from 151 to 108 to 101.)
Remember: pitchers dominated in baseball last year, which is to say that most everyone had a statistical decline. In Thursday’s Boston Globe, Alex Speier noted that Bregman had an .862 OPS in his last 95 games of the season. Of course, we can find preferable stretches to highlight for any player, so the full-season numbers should almost always take precedent.
At the end of the day, should you like the Bregman signing? Yes. But don’t take it too far. The structure of the deal doesn’t suggest that the Red Sox are suddenly back to being big spenders. And depending on how the season goes, we still need to see how much they’re willing to further invest at the trading deadline.
That said, the 2025 Red Sox are better than they were yesterday at this time – and that’s at least a start.
