Mazz: The good and bad of the Red Sox' failure to land Juan Soto

In the end, for the Red Sox, the pursuit of Juan Soto ended in failure. Nonetheless, given that fairness is indeed our middle name here on the jury of the Boston sports world, there are both good and bad news o absorb.

First, the news: According to reports that originated with Jeff Passan at ESPN, Soto has agreed to terms with the New York Mets. The final numbers came in at $765 million over 15 years with no deferred money. The annual average of $51 million is the highest in major league history. The $765 million is also the highest. Soto can opt out after five years and the deal could be worth more than $800 million if Soto meets incentives.

(Before we go on, a quick aside here: We all know how free agency works, and the most recent winner is often the highest paid. But the idea that someone could be worth more than Shohei Ohtani, who unprecedented value as a two-way player, is preposterous.)

Now, should you be surprised by any of this? No. Nor should you be surprised by the fact that Soto ended up in New York, where seemed like a high probability from the start. Soto just turned 26 and boasts a career .421 on-base percentage to go with a .953 OPS, totals that have both the nerds and traditionalists in rare agreement. Further, he is left-handed. He would have been a nightmare to pitch to at Fenway Park, something evidenced by a spray chart that looks like splatter from an art studio:

(For the full interactive version of the spray chart, click here.)

Now, does that mean this is a major blow for the Red Sox? Yes and no. In some ways – for all teams – Soto is the ideal free agent signee for the reasons specified above. And because he is a positional player rather than a pitcher, the injury risks seem less. This is undoubtedly why the Red Sox engaged in what certainly seems like a legitimate pursuit, which we’ll now get into.

Here is both the good news and the bad news of the Red Sox’ failed pursuit of Soto, now the biggest free agent signing in baseball history:

• The good news

  

  NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JUNE 26: Juan Soto #22 of the New York Yankees reacts before the game against the New York Mets at Citi Field on June 26, 2024 in the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images)

  Admittedly, free agency is a pass-fail proposition. You either get the player or you don’t. But after a stretch of six seasons during which the Red Sox have basically been a .500 team and now dipped near the middle of the pack in team payroll, we  were starting to wonder whether team ownership and management really wanted to extended itself anymore. The pursuit of Soto – and the Sox reportedly were willing to north of $700 million – certainly seems like a good sign.

  We’ve used this analogy before, but when the Red Sox acquired Pedro Martinez by trade during the winter of 1997-98, then-general manager Dan Duquette uttered the phrase that the Red Sox were “back in business.”

  This feels somewhat similar, especially after both team president Sam Kennedy and chief baseball officer Craig Breslow have essentially suggested, to paraphrase, the time is now. The obvious difference is that the Red Sox didn’t get the first player on their list.

  Want more good news? The Red Sox don’t really need Soto, at least from a baseball perspective. The organization is stocked with left-handed bats, including Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, Triston Casas, Wilyer Abreu, Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel and others. Are any of them as good as Soto? No. (If we’re talking about the pure skill of hitting, no one is.) The Red Sox finished last season ranked third in the American League and ninth in the majors in runs scored. And they should be better in 2025. Nonetheless, there is a downside to all of this, and we (as always) are here to tell you what is is:

• The bad news

  

  BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – AUGUST 30: Juan Soto #42 of the Washington Nationals warms up before the game against the Boston Red Sox Fenway Park on August 30, 2020 in Boston, Massachusetts. All players are wearing #42 in honor of Jackie Robinson Day. The day honoring Jackie Robinson, traditionally held on April 15, was rescheduled due to the COVID-19 pandemic. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

  While there is every reason to think the Red Sox could still end up on their feet – and then some – there was an obvious sequence to their off-season plan. Soto is, in many ways, the ideal free agent: he’s young (26), sturdy (6-foot-2, 225 pounds) and seemingly durable (starting in 2019, he ranks seventh in games played). Playing him in left field at Fenway Park (among the lease demanding defensive positions in baseball) was an ideal scenario. And it would have all given the Sox the flexibility to trade for pitching, which is something they would prefer over paying for it.

  Understand? If the Sox wanted to spend this offseason – and they seem prepared to – they would have rather spent it on a positional player and then traded for younger, cheaper pitchers that require greater financial risk. This would have allowed them to make judgments on the pitchers farther down the proverbial road.

  So here’s the question: are the Sox going to be as willing to extend for free agent pitchers as they were for Soto? It seems unlikely. (We’re obviously not just talking about dollars here. We’re talking about mindset.) What if the bidding for Corbin Burnes and Max Fried (two alleged targets) approaches, say, $200-$250 million? Will the Sox go there? And before you scoff at that notion, remember that the other teams to fail on Soto – the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays, both with the Sox in the American League East – now have money to spend, too.

  Again, here’s the point: for the Sox, Soto was Plan A for a reason. They preferred Plan A over other options. Are they going to be as willing and eager to spend for Plans B, C or D? And if not, how much longer will Sox fans have to wait for Anthony, Teel and Mayer, among others, to reach their full potential?

• More to consider

  

  BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – AUGUST 30: Juan Soto #42 of the Washington Nationals collects a single hit by Rafael Devers #42 of the Boston Red Sox during the sixth inning at Fenway Park on August 30, 2020 in Boston, Massachusetts. All players are wearing #42 in honor of Jackie Robinson Day. The day honoring Jackie Robinson, traditionally held on April 15, was rescheduled due to the COVID-19 pandemic. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

  One final thing – and it’s not necessarily small: the Red Sox were in on Yoshinobu Yamamoto last offseason and fell short. Not they’ve been outbid for Soto. In their search for a chief baseball executive, the Sox went through 10 or more candidates before they ultimately hired, whom they initially targeted as someone they wanted to groom under a more experienced chief executive.

  See a pattern? There were reports last week that owner John Henry was conversing with agent Scott Boras and his representatives about what it would take to close the deal with Soto. But if the money was ultimately equal and Soto chose the Mets, well, that suggests that something other than money sent Soto to the Mets.

  If that’s true, that should scare you. Whether the Sox want to admit it or not, the last six seasons have done damage to their credibility – both with their fans and throughout the game. If Teoscar Hernandez (another Sox target) wants to win, he might prefer the Lois Angeles Dodgers over the Sox. Ditto for Fried and Burnes, no matter where they end up. The Red Sox will be faced with either overpaying by a sizable margin – which they prefer to avoid, particularly with pitchers – or trading prospects they don’t really want to deal.

  Obviously, lots of dominoes remain.

  Let’s see how they fall.