How many Patriots roster spots are truly up for grabs?

Author Alex Barth

August 11th, 2021 5:00 AM

In just a few weeks, the Patriots will have to trim their roster from 90 players to 53 (with stops at 85 and 80) for the start of the regular season. That task will be as difficult as ever this year, with the depth currently on the team. There are more than 53 NFL-caliber players in camp.

There’s an old Bill Belichick quote, “it’s not about collecting talent, it’s about building a team,” which becomes especially relevant this time of year. While it may be easy to think that just the best 53 players will make the team, that rarely ends up being the case.

Think of an NFL roster like the March Madness basketball tournament. It’s supposed to be most competitive field of 64 teams, but it’s rarely the top 64 teams in the country that make it. Is the best team in the Big Sky or the Horizon League better than the sixth or seventh best team in a power five conference? Probably not, but automatic bids skew the numbers, limiting the number of ‘at-large’ teams, or teams that make it without winning their conference.

How many ‘at-large’ bids are there on an NFL roster? Fewer than you’d think. The majority of spots can only be won by players of a certain position. Even at a bare minimum every team is keeping at least two quarterbacks, three running backs, three wide receivers, etc, regardless of the talent level at those positions.

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  Based on roster trends in recent years, positional minimums account for 39 roster spots. That leaves 14 'at-large' openings to go to the best options available regardless of position, whether they be the best players or young players with upside. 
  
  When it comes to the Patriots, that number is likely smaller. The league-wide number doesn't account for special teams coverage players such as Matthew Slater. In addition, due to COVID many teams are now keeping three quarterbacks, despite the average being two over the last half-decade. Factor in those elements, and the Patriots have probably have as many as 10 and as few as seven 'at-large' spots to be won on their roster.
  
  Here's an example from this year's camp - it's hard to say either Joejuan Williams or Michael Jackson Sr. have been among the best 53 players for the Patriots so far this summer. However, the team is almost assured to keep one of them (pending an external acquisition) given the lack of depth at cornerback. It's unrealistic to think they would carry just two true outside corners, especially given the fact Stephon Gilmore is coming off an injury.
  
  Meanwhile, players such as N'Keal Harry, J.J. Taylor, and Matt LaCosse have all had strong performances so far this summer. Yet they're not quite in line for an 'automatic bid' onto the roster, given the depth ahead of them at their respective positions. Have they been objectively better than Jackson and/or Williams? Yes. But the makeup of the roster dictates an easier path onto the initial 53 for the cornerbacks than those offensive skill position players.

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  As training camp rolls on and roster battles continue to take shape, it's important to remember that those battles are not always between two players at the same position competing head-to-head. In reality, there's a pool of 12 to 15 players all competing indirectly against each other for those 'at-large' spots. In addition to the names mentioned above, guys like Kristian Wilkerson, Marcus Martin, James Ferentz, Rashod Berry, Carl Davis, Montravius Adams, Terez Hall, and others are in that group as well. 
  
  Keep in mind this is a different concept than a 'roster lock,' or a player who is undoubtedly expected to make the team from the beginning of camp. A player can be a roster lock even without a seemingly 'automatic bid' spot on the roster. For instance, the Patriots have four 'roster lock' running backs (pending injuries) in Damien Harris, Sony Michel, James White, and rookie Rhamondre Stevenson.
  
  The recent historic minimum for running backs in three, so that effectively eliminates yet another 'at-large' spot. Combine both 'roster locks' and 'automatic bid' players, and the real number of spots on the Patriots roster that can truly be won by a player of any position on pure talent or potential alone may be closer to five. 
  
  Basically, this is a longwinded way of quantifying the 'bubble' that often gets brought up at this time of year. It's usually mentioned as an abstract construct, but this is what it looks like in reality. 

MORE: Patriots roster projection 1.0

Alex Barth is a writer and digital producer for 985TheSportsHub.com. Any opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of 98.5 The Sports Hub, Beasley Media Group, or any subsidiaries. Thoughts? Comments? Questions? Looking for a podcast guest? Let him know on Twitter @RealAlexBarth or via email at abarth@985TheSportsHub.com.

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