Mike Giardi: Bill Belichick’s future in focus if Patriots lose critical sunday showdown against Jets
During his weekly hour-long segment with Toucher & Rich, Boston Sports Journal’s Mike Giardi was asked about the potential consequences if the New England Patriots were to lose on Sunday. Giardi suggests that the main story would revolve around Bill Belichick’s future as the head coach. He mentions that if the Patriots were to start the season with an 0-3 record, it would be a significant concern, and Robert Kraft might not be pleased. Regardless of the outcome, Mike doesn’t believe Belichick would be fired mid-season and acknowledges that the pressure on Belichick might increase, even though he previously didn’t think Belichick was on the hot seat. Additionally, Giardi suggests that if the Patriots struggle early in the season, they might need to consider their quarterback situation, potentially raising questions about Mac Jones as the starting quarterback.
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – SEPTEMBER 17: Head coach Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots walks on the field prior to a game against the Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium on September 17, 2023 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)
TRANSCRIPT:
Rich Shertenlieb: What’s the story if the Patriots lose on Sunday (against the Jets)?
Mike Giardi: Well, I would imagine the story is about Bill Belichick. How much longer does he get to start? Three would be based on the way I think they felt that I know the way they felt about their team. They felt a lot better about their team than the rest of us did based on how they felt about the AFC. I think they felt like there were some opportunities there in the division in particular. So you start 0-3. I mean, that’s unimaginable to them, I think. And I’m sure that the owner would not be pleased to be in that spot. And then like, look, I don’t think he’s getting there, pulling the plug on Bill Belichick in-season. But I think all of a sudden your timeline there sped up because I’m one who didn’t believe that he was on the hot seat. I don’t. I didn’t see that. I know people have talked about it. I thought, you know, essentially if they don’t, if the season didn’t tank and he goes 6-11 or 5-12, that Bill would be back again next year if he wanted to be. But if you start on three, maybe the conversation starts to intensify. And to me, that would be the big story. And then the other part of that is whether it’s fair or not. Mac, are you back in the market for a quarterback? If you start in three, you start those conversations.
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Lack of offense leaves Patriots short again: 8 takeaways from Sunday night's loss to the Dolphins
Offensive line struggles continue
Sep 17, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (10) throws a pass against Miami Dolphins linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel (43) in the second quarter at Gillette Stadium. Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
The Patriots’ offensive line was shorthanded again in Week 2, but in a different way. Guards Cole Strange and Mike Onwenu were back, although Onwenu was also pulled in the second half for rookie Atonio Mafi. Meanwhile, starting left tackle Trent Brown out with a concussion, with recent trade acquisition Vederian Lowe stepping in for him.
Collectively, it was a rough night for the group as a whole. But most of the issues came from the right tackle spot. One of only two linemen to start both Weeks 1 and 2, Calvin Anderson struggled. Dolphins linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel beat him early and often, and was a regular in the Patriots’ backfield recording three quarterback hits including a key sack late in the game.
In the run game, things didn’t look much better. Outside of an 18-yard scramble by Mac Jones in the fourth quarter, the Patriots averaged just 2.9 yards per carry. Even in key spots the unit couldn’t rise to the occasions, with runs coming up short on a 3rd & 1 and 3rd & 2 in the second half.
Those issues up front also seemed to be reflected in the play calling. When running, the Patriots often ran to the outside, counting on pulling linemen and tight ends to set key blocks rather than linemen coming out of their stance. When that didn’t work they turned to a screen game to simulate the run, which also fell flat (for reasons beyond blocking, which we’ll get to in a minute). Even in the passing game, the calls were all set to get the ball out of Jones’ hands as quick as possible. Those calls worked in that regard, but limited the Patriots’ ability to gain chunk plays – especially without one of their top YAC players (again, see the next topic).
Demario Douglas benched (?)
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – SEPTEMBER 17: Demario Douglas #81 of the New England Patriots fumbles the ball against Bradley Chubb #2 of the Miami Dolphins during the first quarter at Gillette Stadium on September 17, 2023 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)
One of the Patriots’ best players early in this game was rookie wide receiver Demario Douglas. In the first quarter he had two catches for 19 yards, creating after the catch in both instances.
However, he got a little too creative on the second one. After breaking the initial tackle Douglas was tracked down from behind by Dolphins linebacker Bradley Chubb, who punched the ball out and forced a fumble – which the Dolphins recovered – on the final play of the first quarter. Douglas didn’t play another offensive snap in the game, although he did return two punts.
Look, turnovers are bad. There’s no away around that. But they do happen. That’s especially true for rookies, who often need to make mistakes in order to get better. For Douglas though, as least on Sunday night, he didn’t get another chance to prove himself.
While it certainly looked like a benching, Bill Belichick downplayed that after the game. “Look, we had a lot of production on offense. [DeVante] Parker had a good day. [Mike] Gesicki had a good day. Hunter [Henry] had a good day, JuJu [Smith-Schuster], KB [Kendrick Bourne]. So, you know, a lot of good players. Can’t play everybody,” Belichick replied when asked about Douglas’ usage. “Look, we could talk about this every week. And there will be somebody that played less than somebody else. We’ve got a lot of skilled players.”
Whatever the reason Douglas didn’t play (it sure looked like a benching), the Patriots certainly missed his explosiveness. For instance, early in the game he took a screen pass off an orbit motion for a nine-yard gain and a first down. Later in the game the Patriots tried a similar play with JuJu Smith-Schuster – who doesn’t have the same quickness Douglas does, and it went for a loss. The Patriots also tried getting DeVante Parker – another player who isn’t typically a YAC guy – involved in the screen game as well, with similar results.
For this Patriots offense to be as good as it can be, Douglas needs to be involved to some extent. Whether or not he’ll get another shot next week against the Jets will be an important question.
Missing Jon Jones
Sep 17, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Miami Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill (10) celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the first half against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports
The Patriots also felt the impact of a player missing on the defensive side of the ball. Cornerback Jonathan Jones, who was added to the injury report on Thursday with an ankle injury then didn’t practice on Friday, was ruled out just before the game.
Going back to Tyreek Hill’s time with the Chiefs, Jones has been the Patriots’ answer for Hill’s speed and quickness. Without Jones available, the coverage matchups became a major question.
In the end, the Patriots kept Hill relatively in check. He caught five passes on nine targets for 40 yards, including a goal-line touchdown. Generally considered a home-run hitter, his longest play of the game went for 15 yards.
Despite managing to cover Hill without Jones, Jones’ absence was still apparent – and became even more telling when Marcus Jones left the game early with an injury as well. Because while the team cover Hill, it was because they allocated extra resources to stopping him they likely wouldn’t have had Jones been in the game. That opened the doors for some of Miami’s secondary and even tertiary targets to make an impact. Jaylen Waddle was Miami’s leading receiver with four catches for 86 yards, but wide receivers Braxton Berrios and River Cracraft, tight end Durham Smyth, and running back Salvon Ahmed all had key catches on an important two-minute drill drive for the Dolphins just before halftime.
Allocating extra resources in coverage also left the Patriots thin up front to defend the run. Miami took advantage, rushing for 145 yards on 30 carries. That included a 43-yard jaunt by Raheem Mostert in the fourth quarter, which ended up being the difference-making touchdown.
A questionable challenge
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – SEPTEMBER 17: Head coach Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots argues with line judge Jeff Seeman #45 during the second quarter against the Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium on September 17, 2023 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
Back to some questions for the coaching staff, and one that probably went under-discussed in the aftermath of the game. With 1:26 to go in the third quarter, Bill Belichick challenged the spot after a one-yard run on 3rd & 2 from Miami’s 25. The challenge was unsuccessful, costing the Patriots a timeout that would have been incredibly valuable late in the game.
There are a few reasons this challenge stood out as an odd decision. Mainly, the next play was 4th & inches. That’s a high-rate conversion, especially with the Eagles’ “tush push” QB sneak the Patriots adopted for this game. Perhaps the coaching staff was concerned about the offensive line, as mentioned above, but they’d converted QB sneaks earlier in the game.
It’s also about the play itself that was challenged. Those third and fourth down spot plays are some of the least-overturned in the game. Getting incontrovertible evidence on those plays is difficult when a player is under the pile (which made the late-game reversal on the booth review all the more puzzling).
Even after losing the challenge and picking up the fourth down the Patriots still failed to score on the drive, with Mac Jones being intercepted by Xavien Howard two plays later. The real cost here was the timeout though. Because the Patriots only had two timeouts late in the game, they had to be more urgent on their final drive. If they’d had the flexibility to give the ball back to Miami and trust the defense with three timeouts, they may have been able to call plays differently in the closing minutes.
Bill vs Tua, Round 5
Sep 17, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) passes the ball during the first half against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Credit: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports
In the aftermath of this game, the ‘Bill Belichick has never beaten Tua Tagovailoa‘ takes are bound to resurface. Yet Tua’s win in this game came as so many of his others against the Patriots – with his defense doing most of the work.
The 24 points scored by the Dolphins on Sunday night were the second-most in a game against Belichick with Tagovailoa under center, after a 33-point performance in the 2021 season finale. In his five starts against Belichick, Tagovailoa has led the Dolphins’ offense to just 23.2 points per game. Meanwhile, the Patriots have scored just 15.2 points per game in those games. So when these teams meet again later next year, it’s more about the Dolphins’ defense against the Patriots’ offense than visa versa.
Backs against the wall
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – SEPTEMBER 17: Head coach Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots walks on the field prior to a game against the Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium on September 17, 2023 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)
No season should ever be ruled ‘over’ in Week 2. That being said, the Patriots have some strong historical context working against them right now.
Since 1990, 270 NFL teams have started 0-2 (not including the 2023 season). Of those 270, only 31 (11.5 percent) have gone on to make the playoffs. Last year the Cincinnati Bengals (who have significantly more margin for error than the average 0-2 team given their roster talent) were the first team to make the playoffs after an 0-2 start since 2018.
That’s not to say it’s impossible to make the playoffs after starting with an 0-2 record. But generally, that record ends up being indicative of what a team is. Outside of the Bengals, six teams were winless through two weeks last season. They finished with an average of 5.7 wins.
Now 0-2 for the first time since 2001, will the Patriots be an anomaly? The quest to buck the trend beings next week in New York, in what will be their first road game of the year.
