While the majority of the league’s general managers and players are out there squeezing up the last remaining moments of the summer, the Tampa Bay Lightning and forward Brandon Hagel put pen to paper Tuesday, with Hagel signed to an eight-year, $52 million contract extension set to kick in after the 2023-24 season.
The contract, which will come with a $6.5 million cap hit, will make Hagel the third-highest paid Lightning forward behind the dueling $9.5 million cap hits of Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point, and will make the 24-year-old Hagel the sixth-highest paid Bolt behind Point, Kucherov, Andrei Vasilevskiy ($9.5 million average annual value), Mikhail Sergachev ($8.5 million average annual value), and Victor Hedman ($7.875 million average annual value).
It also comes on the heels of a 2022-23 campaign that featured career-high marks in goals (30), assists (34), and points (64) for the 6-foot-2 Hagel. The lefty-shooting wing also established single-season highs in hits (68), blocked shots (58), shots (178), and his 18:39 of time on ice per night was also a career-high.
The extension was by all means a deserved one for Hagel.
And it may have also set the ideal contract comp for the Bruins and winger Jake DeBrusk ahead of a contract year for the sides.
TAMPA, FLORIDA – NOVEMBER 21: Jake DeBrusk #74 of the Boston Bruins shoots during a game ` at Amalie Arena on November 21, 2022 in Tampa, Florida. (Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
And shows what a difference a year — and a change in your deployment in the lineup — makes.
“It was obviously a crazy year ago at this point in time and even before that,” DeBrusk recalled back in May when asked about his trade request (which was ultimately rescinded last year) and if he was happy to instead see it through with the Bruins. “I did feel lucky. I felt lucky to be [in Boston] every day. Even just with the start that we had as a group. With the guys in this locker room, it just felt special, and I tried to take every moment I could of any day that I was here, and I was just really grateful for the opportunity.”
Moved to the right side of Boston’s top-line, one-two punch of Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand, DeBrusk grew and grew and grew for the Bruins. That happened under both Bruce Cassidy and Jim Montgomery (remember it was Cassidy who made the decision to put DeBrusk in that spot back in Feb. 2022).
Skating to the right of Bergeron and Marchand almost exclusively beginning on Feb. 24, 2022, DeBrusk totaled 43 goals and 75 points in 96 games played. His 43 goals were the second-most on the Bruins over that span (David Pastrnak led all Boston scorers with 74 goals), and were actually the 43rd-most in the entire NHL. 36 of those 43 goals have come at even-strength play, too, making DeBrusk the league’s 22nd-highest even-strength goal scorer over that span.
And when you factor in the injuries that put DeBrusk on the shelf for a month and a half last year, those are some undeniably elite numbers as a goal-scoring threat.
Apr 8, 2022; Tampa, Florida, USA; Bruins left wing Jake DeBrusk (74) hip checks Lightning center Brayden Point (21) off of the puck as Bruins goaltender Linus Ullmark (35) looks on at Amalie Arena. (Reinhold Matay/USA TODAY Sports)
But how do DeBrusk and Hagel compare when up against one another?
Starting from the date of Hagel’s move from Chicago to Tampa Bay (Mar. 18, 2022), and focusing on their five-on-five numbers, DeBrusk holds an edge over Hagel in goals per 60 (1.26 compared to 0.94), points per 60 (2.14 for DeBrusk and 1.88 for Hagel), and DeBrusk also holds the edge in individual scoring chances per 60 (9.05 to 8.14), and individual high-danger chances per 60 (5.02 compared to 3.94).
When assessing these rates, it’s important to note that Hagel has played almost 400 more five-on-five minutes than DeBrusk, and that DeBrusk average more offensive-zone faceoffs, increasing his odds of making an impact on the scoreboard.
Both players benefitted from playing with all-world talents, too, as DeBrusk skated with Bergeron and Marchand while Hagel played on a line with Kucherov and Point.
Delving deeper than their scoring rates and chance-generating rates, Hagel was one of the more ferocious players to go against a year ago, as his 92 takeaways were the second-most in all of hockey. Hagel also averaged 1:58 of shorthanded time on ice for a Bolts shorthanded group that finished in the top half of the league.
DeBrusk also contributed on the penalty kill, though not at a necessarily comparable clip, with Hagel averaging over a half-minute more than DeBrusk on the kill. (DeBrusk’s 1:22 of shorthanded time on ice per game was still a career-high, however, and was a staggering 40-second per night increase from his previous career-high, set in 2021.)
In other words, these guys are awfully close.
Mar 25, 2023; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning left wing Brandon Hagel (38) and Boston Bruins center Pavel Zacha (18) battle for the puck during the second period at TD Garden. (Bob DeChiara/USA TODAY Sports)
Now, one interesting wrinkle here is that Hagel’s production can be considered the ‘new norm’ for him, especially with Kucherov and Point also locked in for the long haul with the Lightning.
DeBrusk, meanwhile, may have to ‘re-establish’ himself as the elite scoring threat he’s been for the last season and a half now that Bergeron, a player who always made his linemates better, is out of the picture.
DeBrusk could still play with Marchand, sure, especially if the Bruins view that as their ‘pair’ on the first line opposed to a center-wing pair. That duo had chemistry on their own, and Marchand’s positive influence clearly helped bring out the best in DeBrusk. But it’s also possible, if not likely, that they tinker with moving DeBrusk back to his natural left wing position following the summer departures of Taylor Hall and Tyler Bertuzzi.
Bruins president Cam Neely alluded to as much just two months ago (and before Bertuzzi officially left the club).
“We have some options,” Neely said following the 2023 NHL Awards back in June when talking about replacing Hall. “The good thing is Jake [DeBrusk] can play either side, so if we get a player on either side, righty, or lefty, I don’t think we’re predisposed to say it has to be a lefty or it has to be a righty. That’s fortunate for us in that regard, so we can move the pieces around, we can allow the internal competition to bubble up while we continue to look outside to see if we can complement something in that group.”
Mar 19, 2023; Buffalo, New York, USA; Boston Bruins left wing Jake DeBrusk (74) reacts after scoring a goal during the first period against the Buffalo Sabres at KeyBank Center. (Timothy T. Ludwig/USA TODAY Sports)
It’s also worth watching to see just how aggressive the Bruins get when it comes to retaining DeBrusk.
While it may vary on a case-by-case basis, Bruins general manager Don Sweeney is clearly not afraid of letting negotiations bleed into the regular season (see: the entire David Pastrnak saga last year), nor does it happen that he operates with hard deadlines. But Sweeney has also made it a habit of locking up guys early when possible in an attempt to save on the future sticker price, doing so with Marchand in 2016 and Charlie McAvoy in 2021.
Now, given the relative uncertainty surrounding DeBrusk — where he plays in the lineup, who he plays with, and whether or not his numbers stay the same without No. 37 helping drive his line — there’s a legitimate case to be made for the Bruins waiting this out and seeing how 2023-24 unfolds for all parties involved. (There’s also a case to be made for the price simply being what it is with an evolving cap and the B’s buying in on DeBrusk’s prime.)
And barring an absolutely insane ask for the pending unrestricted free agent, money should not be an issue for the Bruins when it comes to retaining DeBrusk, as the Bruins are currently slated to enter the 2024 offseason with $28.5 million in projected cap space. That is not factoring in what many expect to be a sizable cap increase, too.
So while where the negotiations go remain an unknown, the Bruins and DeBrusk can take comfort in Tampa Bay providing the sides with a potential starting (or landing) point in their discussions.
