Zolak & Bertrand: The Football Card – Week 9
The crew owns a record of 22-18 after Week 8 with Beetle being the only winner. Unfortunately, Zo, T-Bone, Hardy, and Milliken were all losers.
Zo bet on the Steelers (+2.5) to keep it close against the Jaguars. Beetle put his faith in the Lions (-8.5) to dominate the Raiders. Hardy missed badly by throwing his money on the 49ers (-4) beating the Bengals. T-Bone fell victim to the Patriots (+9+ . Lastly, Milliken lost his second straight by thinking the Texans (-3.5) would handle the Panthers.
One of the biggest questions we get each week is what betting lines do we make our picks from. In past years, sports betting wasn’t allowed in Massachusetts, but that barrier has finally been broken down. Check out Bet MGM to see the exact same lines the guys are looking at.
Scott Zolak (4-4): Dolphins @ Chiefs (Germany) – UNDER 50.5
GLENDALE, ARIZONA – FEBRUARY 12: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates after beating the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium on February 12, 2023 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
Just a week before Zo leaves for Germany, he’s betting on that travel playing a big part in this matchup on Sunday. He thinks this game will be a slog for both sides, even with the Dolphins offense always being on the verge of putting up points. Not to mention, the Chiefs offense hasn’t been as explosive this season as it has been in past years.
Beetle (7-1): Bills @ Bengals – Bengals (-1.5)
CINCINNATI, OHIO – OCTOBER 15: Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals throws the ball during the first half against the Seattle Seahawks at Paycor Stadium on October 15, 2023 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
Last week, Joe Burrow and the Bengals finally looked like the team that was in the AFC Championship a year ago. As the Bills continue to be a bit of a disappoint, this is a tough matchup going on the road for their injured defense. Seems like the Bengals locker room is pretty fired up for this game as well, after the Bills tried to excuse away their loss in the divisional round last season.
Hardy (4-4): Dolphins @ Chiefs (Germany) – Chiefs (-1.5)
MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA – OCTOBER 29: Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins signals for a first down during the second quarter against the New England Patriots at Hard Rock Stadium on October 29, 2023 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
Hardy is joining Zo in betting on this game, but he thinks the Chiefs take care of business against the Dolphins. Tyreek Hill could be a wild card if he goes off, but this Chiefs defense should be able to somewhat contain Mike McDaniels’ offensive gameplan. At that point, you have to put your money on Patrick Mahomes over Tua Tagovailoa.
T-Bone (5-3): Giants @ Raiders – Raiders (-1.5)
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – OCTOBER 15: Maxx Crosby #98 of the Las Vegas Raiders pumps up the crowd during the first quarter against the New England Patriots at Allegiant Stadium on October 15, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Getty Images)
T-Bone is ready to capitalize on the firing of Josh McDaniels, Dave Ziegler, and Mick Lombardi. Different players on the Raiders have been hyping the team up all week, saying this is the start of a new era. This should be a nice spot for them to pop the Giants as they travel to Las Vegas and Daniel Jones looks to find his rhythm after being hurt the last month.
Milliken (2-6): Commanders @ Patriots – Patriots (-3)
Oct 29, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (10) leads the team to the field prior to the game against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Milliken is sitting at 2-6 this season, so he’s putting his money on a 2-6 team in the Patriots. Commanders moved off Montez Sweat and Chase Young earlier this week, which should only make a bad defense worse. Sam Howell is tied for second in the NFL in interceptions, which should allow for the Patriots defense to create a few turnovers and let the offense cook.
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Check out R.J. Bell’s thoughts on our picks!
Familiar spot, unfamiliar faces: Patriots vs. Commanders What To Watch For
Despite trades, Washington still poses a test up front
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – OCTOBER 22: Chase Young #99 and Montez Sweat #90 of the Washington Commanders celebrate after a fumble recovery in the fourth quarter of the game against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium on October 22, 2023 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images)
While the Patriots stood pat at this year’s trade deadline, the Commanders were the league’s biggest seller. They moved on from two of the top edge rushers in the league (both of whom were on expiring contracts), sending Montez Sweat to the Chicago Bears for a second-round pick and Chase Young to the San Francisco 49ers for a third-round pick.
So great, the Patriots’ next opponent just moved on from two great pass rushers. That’s surely a great sign for this week’s matchup, right? Right?
Well, even without Sweat and Young the Commanders still have a dominant defensive front. Their defensive tackle combination of Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne is if not the best, one of the best in the NFL. Heading into Week 9, Allen ranks fifth among all interior rushers with 28 pressures this season, while Payne ranks 27th overall with 17 – both in eight games.
Washington’s trades this week mean the Patriots’ pass protection won’t be tested as much on the edge, this will still be as tough of a game as any for the Patriots’ interior offensive line since the opener. Look for center David Andrews to play a key role working with young guards Cole Strange, Sidy Sow, and Atonio Mafi, who were all rotated through the two guard spots last week.
Which Commanders defense shows up?
LANDOVER, MARYLAND – SEPTEMBER 24: Head coach Ron Rivera of the Washington Commanders looks on during the first half of a game against the Buffalo Bills at FedExField on September 24, 2023 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
If the Patriots can manage to get things blocked up the middle though, they should have chances to move the ball. Despite all of its individual talent, the Commanders’ defense ranks towards the bottom of the league in many major categories, highlighted by them placing 29th in yards allowed and 31st in points allowed.
When this defense is on, it’s on. However, when they’re off they’re off. In eight games this year Washington has held opponents under 20 points three times, In the other five, they’ve allowed 33 points or more.
In their off games, the Commanders have given up the most through the air. Starting cornerback Kendall Fuller has been solid this season but hasn’t had much help around him, with first-round pick Emmanuel Forbes struggling out of the gate.
Yes, the Patriots will be significantly shorthanded at wide receiver. But given Washington’s secondary, there should be chances for players stepping into bigger roles (Tyquan Thornton, Jalen Reagor, Kayshon Boutte) to prove themselves. If the Patriots can give Mac Jones time to throw (admittedly a big ‘if’), there should be receivers open.
Covering everybody
DETROIT, MICHIGAN – SEPTEMBER 18: Jahan Dotson #1 of the Washington Commanders (L) is congratulated by Terry McLaurin #17 after making a catch for a two-point conversion against the Detroit Lions during the fourth quarter at Ford Field on September 18, 2022 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
The Commanders’ offense is highlighted by wide receiver Terry McLaurin, who Bill Belichick called “clearly one of the top players in the league” earlier this week. McLaurin is the Commanders’ leading receiver so far this year with 42 catches for 495 yards and two touchdowns in eight games.
However, McLaurin is hardly their only threat, which Belichick also highlighted. “McLaurin is a great player, but the tight ends, the running backs, [Jahan] Dotson, [Curtis] Samuel, the receivers – he [quarterback Sam Howell] uses all of them,” Belichick noted.
Indeed, Howell has done a fantastic job of spreading the ball around in his first season as a full-time starter. The Commanders have five players with at least 20 catches this year, and eight players with over 100 receiving yards.
The impact first-year offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy has had on Howell and the Commanders is apparent. Bieniemy joins Washington from Kansas City, where he built the offense Patrick Mahomes ran early in his career. A key concept of this offense is to stretch the defense as thin as possible by having multiple players that can catch the ball at all three levels.
Defending this sort of offense will be a tough task for a Patriots’ secondary that is dealing with a number of injuries. Cornerbacks Jonathan Jones and Myles Bryant are on the injury report this week. That leaves J.C. Jackson, Jack Jones, Shaun Wade, and recently-signed Alex Austin as the team’s healthy cornerbacks.
Will the Patriots be able to cover across the board, and will they adjust when Howell finds a matchup he likes and repeatedly exploits it? That will be a key question. Don’t be surprised if the Patriots throw multiple looks at Howell early and spin the dial on him in the back end to prevent him from finding a rhythm.
