Patriots Mailbag: Looking forward after the loss to the Cardinals

• Matty B🎄🎅🏻 on X (formerly Twitter): "If the Patriots play like how they did yesterday against Buffalo twice and LA is this the end of the Jerod Mayo era? / X"

  If the Patriots play like how they did yesterday against Buffalo twice and LA is this the end of the Jerod Mayo era?

  Not surprisingly there were a number of questions along these lines, so apologies if yours didn’t get picked but the answers all would have been similar/the same.

  The goal this year for the Patriots was always progress. Be better at the end of the year than at the beginning. If the team does that, Jerod Mayo and the coaching staff have that momentum to point to heading into 2025. Instead, the opposite happened on Sunday. The fact that performance came off the bye week, with extra time to prepare, makes the loss looks even worse.

  With the opponents only getting tougher from here, similar outcomes could be in store. If that happens and the Patriots actually end up looking worse to close out the season, that certainly could be a driving force behind a potential coaching change.

• Mark Hughes on X (formerly Twitter): "How realistic is a complete overhaul? Coaching & Front office ?? / X"

  How realistic is a complete overhaul? Coaching & Front office ??

  If the Patriots do move on from Jerod Mayo any new head coach is likely going to want to bring in his own staff around him. If Mayo stays, it’s tougher to say, but that would probably suggest less turnover (but that doesn’t mean all of the coordinators would be safe).

  As for the front office, it comes down to how much Drake Maye is tied to Eliot Wolf in the eyes of the decision-makers. There is the take that the Maye pick was ‘obvious,’ but that may be oversimplifying things a bit (I took way too many calls and questions about J.J. McCarthy, Marvin Harrison Jr., Joe Alt, and trade downs to say it was the consensus decision). The roster building beyond may left plenty to be desired, but adding a potential blue-chip franchise quarterback should hold weight.

• Dave on X (formerly Twitter): "Do you think Dan Lanning can build a great NFL program? And should the patriots target him? / X"

  Do you think Dan Lanning can build a great NFL program? And should the patriots target him?

  This is the second week in a row we’ve had a question about Dan Lanning, who is currently the head coach at Oregon. As I said last week, I’m a big fan of Lanning and think he’s the best coach in college football in the post-Nick Saban era.

  That being said, the list of lifetime college coaches who successfully transferred to the NFL is a short one. Just in recent years we’ve seen coaches like Kliff Kingsbury, Matt Rhule, and Urban Meyer fail in the pros. Going further back there are examples like Chip Kelly, Greg Schiano, and even Saban fail to stick.

  Since 2000, 12 coaches were hired from the college level as first-time NFL head coaches (per The Ringer). Of those 12 only two (Jim Harbaugh and Bill O’Brien, with O’Brien having spent considerable time in the NFL prior) have NFL records over .500. Meanwhile, six of those coaches have an NFL winning percentage under 40 percent.

  If the Patriots were to target a college coach, Lanning would be the best option. I believe that if anybody can make the jump right now, it’s him. But given the history of college coaches in the NFL overall, I’d rather see them go after someone with experience in the league.

• LordSavageOfTheDark on X (formerly Twitter): "I've heard some people talking about how AVP needs to stay for continuity for Maye even tho his play calling is uninspired - could AVP just be slotted into the QB coach role and give Maye continuity of development despite getting a new O-Coordinator? / X"

  I've heard some people talking about how AVP needs to stay for continuity for Maye even tho his play calling is uninspired - could AVP just be slotted into the QB coach role and give Maye continuity of development despite getting a new O-Coordinator?

  There’s no rule preventing Alex Van Pelt from moving from offensive coordinator to quarterbacks coach, but it’s not likely to happen. Coaching demotions are incredibly rare in the NFL. Plus, with the job Van Pelt has done with Drake Maye, it wouldn’t be surprising if he’d have other opportunities if the Patriots did try to change his role like that.

  Still, that doesn’t mean the Patriots can’t add offensive input. Promoting or hiring a coach to a role like ‘passing game/running game’ coordinator could be a way to get another set of eyes on things, while still keeping Van Pelt in his current role.

• David Winitzer on X (formerly Twitter): "I'm conflicted on the direction the pats take in the draft... poor top OT class, based on the terrible defense do they go best front 7 player? What would you do? / X"

  I'm conflicted on the direction the pats take in the draft... poor top OT class, based on the terrible defense do they go best front 7 player? What would you do?

  It’s too early to definitively answer this question. A lot of it will have to do with what happens in free agency. If they can address at least one of their two major offensive needs (wide receiver, tackle) through the veteran market, a defensive player at the top of the draft would make a lot more sense. It will also depend on how the board falls, and with a handful of the top projected picks playing in the College Football Playoff there’s still more evaluation to be done.

• If we play like that for the remainder of the season, EVERYTHING should be on the table right?Also, how do we guarantee to get both Abdul Carter AND Josh Simmons in this draft?

  — Phil 💙 Webstor (@webstor-phil.bsky.social) 2024-12-16T18:49:49.449Z

  Penn State linebacker Abdul Carter and Ohio State tackle Josh Simmons can probably both be in play for the Patriots in this draft without any significant maneuvering. Given Simmons is coming off of a significant knee injury in late October, there’s likely a ceiling as to how much he’ll rise up the board.

  That being said, the knee injury is a factor for Simmons. While he was playing well before he got hurt the Patriots need a player who can make an immediate impact at tackle. That might not be the case for Simmons, and there will also be questions about how well he’s moving coming off the injury. Those concerns might have the Patriots also needing to sign a bridge tackle – at which point it may make more sense for them to start the bridge player and address tackle in the draft next year.

  If you’re somebody looking for the Patriots to take a tackle with their second pick, Simmons is a name to know but there may also be a better option. That brings us to…

• Given where the team currently is, do the Pats have enough ammunition to take a non-tackle (McMillan, Carter, etc.) at 3 and then trade up to take Connerly? I'm torn with sticking and picking a top prospect, or trading down a bit so we can trade up later and grab Connerly in the late 1st.

  — Timmer (@timmer753.bsky.social) 2024-12-16T18:55:55.213Z

  Josh Conerly Jr. from Oregon. The top-ranked high school recruit in a class that also included Will Campbell and Kelvin Banks, Conerly doesn’t have the overwhelming experience those two do (he’s a two-year starter instead of three) but has plenty of potential. With the Ducks in the College Football Playoff Conerly will have a chance to continue to boost his stock – especially if he performs as well as he did against Abdul Carter in the Big Ten Championship Game.

  Conerly will likely go higher than Josh Simmons, but should still be in play for the Patriots’ second pick. That’s especially true if the Patriots trade down slightly at the top of the draft, then use part of that return to move up from their second round pick back into the late first.

• MMckenzie73 on X (formerly Twitter): "Is there any way to get out of The awful Dugger contract? / X"

  Is there any way to get out of The awful Dugger contract?

  Not in the immediate future. According to OverTheCap.com, the Patriots will have $23.3 million dollars in dead cap with no cap space gained if Kyle Dugger is cut before June 1, with a post-June 1 cut leaving them with $14.3 million in dead cap while picking up just $1.2 million in space. The numbers get more favorable in the 2026 offseason, but still include significant dead money.

  That being said, it still looks like Dugger is impacted by the ankle injury that cost him time earlier this season. Rather than take that massive cap hit, the team would probably be better off at least seeing if he looks rejuvenated in training camp next year.

• David Jacobs on X (formerly Twitter): "Should we expect to see Strange and Wallace for the next 3 games? / X"

  Should we expect to see Strange and Wallace for the next 3 games?

  I would think we’ll see Cole Strange and Caedan Wallace at some point. The coaching staff has talked about wanting to evaluate younger players, and nowhere is that more important than on the offensive line – a position that could need multiple significant investments this offseason. Any boxes they can check now will help.

  With Strange activated and Ben Brown struggling last week, a switch at center is something to watch for this week. As for Wallace, he still needs to be activated. When he is the team should try him at right tackle – his natural position – even with Vederian Lowe struggling on the left side.