I’m not sure if I’ve read something over the last few years that has made me more excited as a Red Sox fan than Sam Kennedy’s conversation with Michael Silverman at the MLB Owners Meetings. It was almost like someone decided to formulate a Red Sox fanfiction that perfectly depicted the type of “extreme urgency” that has been lacking from the organization in recent years. Add in the phone call from David Ortiz to Kennedy about Juan Soto and all seemed too good to be true… but guess what, I’m buying the cheese. Munching all on it. Slobbering even.
Heading into last offseason, the message from a majority of the national media was that the Red Sox were expected to spend. Hell, Shohei Ohtani was even hyped as a possibility by multiple reporters. But it didn’t take long for Alex Speier to quickly rain on that parade, with Chris Cotillo doing an incredible job of reporting that agents weren’t seeing a change in the Red Sox spending habits.
Fast forward to this offseason, and I’ve yet to see a single piece of media locally or nationally that even hints at the Red Sox not being serious in their approach to elevating the big league roster. That ranges from Speier recently mentioning that he expects the Red Sox to hand out a contract worth over $100 MM this winter, to Sean McAdam’s report about the front office’s interest in Garrett Crochet, and even the rumblings Cotillo heard about Tanner Scott at the start of the offseason. Which is before taking into account why Alex Cora signed his extension, his mention of this being the last struggle year, and Craig Breslow’s quote of turning the “dial” from the future to the present.
Jul 12, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; President and CEO of the Boston Red Sox Sam Kennedy applauds before a game against the Kansas City Royals at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports
It’s fascinating to even look at the change in Kennedy’s words from the end of year press conference to this past week. He went from not wanting to discuss financials whatsoever to now hinting at possibly going over the first CBT threshold and being open to handing out another mega-deal. Say what you will about “full throttle” last season, but talking like this is doing 10x times that, especially when there was plenty of positive PR already surrounding the Red Sox right now.
Truth is, there’s a certain portion of this fanbase that isn’t going to believe in change until something is actually done, which is more than fair. Kennedy has brought that upon himself, especially after the Red Sox waited until the season ticket renewal deadline to reveal their plans for the 2024 season. Still, there’s a clear difference between the reporting this offseason, the entire organization preaching a change in how they operate, and the way agents are talking about the intentions the Red Sox have right now.
I won’t let Juan Soto hurt me, but I’m optimistic.
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – JULY 27: Juan Soto #22 of the New York Yankees hits a two-run home run against the Boston Red Sox during the first inning at Fenway Park on July 27, 2024 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Brian Fluharty/Getty Images)
Do I believe Juan Soto will be dawning a Red Sox uniform in 2025? No. Do I have more hope than I ever imagined (11%) having at the start of the offseason? Definitely. As you’ve probably heard a million times, he grew up a Red Sox fan because he fell in love with Dominican Republic heroes like David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, and Pedro Martinez. That was reportedly a big part of the Red Sox presentation to Soto and like every other meeting the lefty has had with teams, it seemed to go well. Even better, Ortiz is close with Soto’s family since they live in the same complex and has regularly been speaking to them throughout the process.
Over the last few days, Ortiz has done a series of interviews talking about how serious the Red Sox have been in this process, which is good to hear. He was even asked to attend the first meeting between the two sides, but couldn’t because of a health situation with his dad. Who knows, that might be a play the Red Sox lean on later in the process if possible.
Right now, the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Blue Jays have all had a confirmed meeting with Soto. The hope is Soto chooses the Red Sox because he wants to be the face of the franchise and he falls in love with the organization being at the start of what could be a huge window of contention. Unlike the Yankees and Mets, where Lindor and Judge are captains of their clubs and nearing the end of their primes, Rafael Devers is only 28 and should be a perfect partner in crime for the majority of both of their contracts.
Even as Soto exits his prime years, the likes of Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer, and Kyle Teel would be in the midst of their own. As Hal Steinbrenner recently mentioned, the pipeline and future of each organization has been a key component to what Soto has been asking about. Still, it’s hard to envision money not being the deciding factor whenever this sweepstakes reaches a conclusion, and it feels like Steve Cohen is rubbing his hands in anticipation.
Jun 15, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; New York Yankees left fielder Juan Soto (22) is greeted in the dugout after hitting a home run during the seventh inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
Heyman reported a few days back that a strong relationship with the owner is another pivotal factor for Soto in his decision. Steinbrenner wasn’t able to form that relationship in his one year with the Yankees, but Cohen comes off like a perfect match in that sense. John Henry has yet to meet with Soto, as he sent Tom Werner to represent ownership in the initial meeting between the two sides.
The most terrifying chunk of news I’ve seen for the Red Sox in their pursuit of Soto? Not Jon Morosi saying he’d be shocked by him choosing Boston, but Michael Kay saying Cohen is willing to throw $50 MM on whatever the best offer for Soto is. I hate to say it, but if it turns out to be true, that’s such a ballsy stance to have and exactly what Cohen should be doing as the richest owner in the sport with a future Hall of Famer looming in free agency at age 26.
I expect the Red Sox to be in the ballpark of whatever final offers are out there for Soto. You don’t get involved in this if you aren’t willing to pony up that type of money. But getting picked over the Yankees and Mets is another story, so you have to hope those factors mentioned above are what stands out.
Jeff Passan alluded to the hunt for Soto being wrapped-up by the end of Winter Meetings, which will run from December 9th to the 12. The first set of offers from teams are expected to come in this week, so it doesn’t look like that timeline has changed. It wouldn’t hurt for the Red Sox to land a top of the rotation arm before he makes his decision, just to show how serious they are about competing.
While nothing would signal the Red Sox being more back than landing Soto, it’s not my expectation. My expectation is that this team will at least spend close to the $241 MM luxury tax threshold and maybe beyond it. This team needs at least one top of the rotation starter, an impact right-handed bat, a back-up catcher, and a high-leverage reliever or two (preferably a lefty and righty) to ensure the bullpen doesn’t meltdown in the second-half again.
Is Nolan Arenado a fit with the Red Sox?
Sep 11, 2024; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado (28) reacts after hitting a solo home run against the Cincinnati Reds during the fourth inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-Imagn Images
This has been the latest rumor circulating the Red Sox community after McAdam reported that a trade for Nolan Arenado could be a potential “Plan B” for the front office this offseason. First off, McAdam confirming that there’s been internal dialogue about moving Devers off of 3B is a major piece of news within itself, since we’ve all been speculating on the topic since Ken Rosenthal floated the idea back in September. But there’s now some solid smoke on that front with the Red Sox being connected to Alex Bregman and Willy Adames at different points this offseason.
First things first, you won’t hear me pushing any narrative that Devers is even average at third base. He racked up -9 Defensive Runs Saved and -6 Outs Above Average at the position this past season. To be fair, he was dealing with a number of injuries throughout the year and didn’t have Trevor Story to his left for a majority of the season, but I do believe Devers is what he is at this point.
Devers will be 28 going into next season and is still owed $284 MM over 9 years. Definitely not the easiest pill for the Red Sox to swallow by turning him to a DH, but it shouldn’t be something they rule out simply due to the money owed to him. More importantly to me would be how it impacts Devers on and off the field.
At least in my view, any idea of moving Devers over to first baseman and just assuming he can handle it seems extremely risky. For Devers, a player who typically has concentration issues defensively, has struggled to move on from errors in the past, and has a history of getting banged up, it worries me to think he’s going to be involved in every play in the infield. I’m not saying the idea is impossible, but in this scenario you’re choosing to move off of Triston Casas, who has already shown the ability to be an elite bat and has had flashes of at least being an average defender at first base.
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – APRIL 16: Masataka Yoshida #7 of the Boston Red Sox reacts after striking out against the Cleveland Guardians during the eleventh inning at Fenway Park on April 16, 2024 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Brian Fluharty/Getty Images)
Many keep floating Masataka Yoshida as a contract the Cardinals could take on that might make the money work for both sides. Yoshida is owed $55.8 MM over the next 3 years, but is currently rehabbing from labrum surgery that should allow him to be ready by Opening Day at the plate. Arenado on the other hand would roughly be on the books for a little less than $17 MM over the next 3 seasons, thanks to the Rockies eating $5 MM in 2025 and 2026.
Now, you may ask, why would the Cardinals want an injured Yoshida on their books as they try to shed payroll and let a young core find their footing at the big league level? You have to hope Chaim Bloom, who is set to replace POBO John Mozeliak after 2025, still believes in the guy that he paid a few years back. If I was Bloom, I wouldn’t want a reminder of what went wrong in Boston, but hey that’s just me.
Maybe Ryan Helsey factors into the package and the Red Sox look at him as a solution at closer. He has one more year of control remaining before free agency and has posted a ridiculous 1.83 ERA/2.35 FIP over the last 3 seasons. Just to make this very clear, I’d be hesitant to deal any prospects with the Cardinals right now since Chaim Bloom knows this farm system as well as anyone in the game.
If there’s not a contract swap with Yoshida and Arenado, it’s extremely hard to sell me on this deal. I think the offensive concerns with Arenado are not something to ignore, even if he moved to Fenway Park, where his expected home run total was only 12. Not to mention, he doesn’t help much with your weakness against left-handed pitching, which is something to keep an eye on with Tyler O’Neill likely departing (2nd-best OPS against LHP in MLB, minimum 100 PA).
The future of Marcelo Mayer is also a factor in this as well. If he’s still in the organization after this offseason, he’s going to need a spot in the infield by the end of 2025. Right now, he could be the reason why Devers moves to DH, with a potential infield of Mayer, Story, Campbell, and Casas setting you up for the foreseeable future.
It’s hard to envision all these pieces fitting together until moves start to happen. Some of the smoke about improving the infield defense does make me wonder if they’re heavily into signing Max Fried and his 96th percentile GB%. Still, Fried has made it work with Austin Riley at 3B, who’s been a serious negative at the position outside of what he did in 2023.
