Milliken: Life after Yoshinobu Yamamoto for the Red Sox
Well, the dream of Yoshinobu Yamamoto becoming one of the faces of the Boston Red Sox for the next decade is over. If you somehow missed it, he agreed to a 12-year deal worth $325 MM late last night to become the latest headline signing for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Must be fun.
It’s a weird feeling seeing the Red Sox miss out on Yamamoto. Hard to be overly upset, because it never felt like they were a favorite or in the thick of the race. Still, seeing the arm that could help remedy the biggest weakness in the organization for the last decade choose elsewhere just serves as a reminder of where things stand for John Henry, Craig Breslow, and company.
We’ve yet to hear about the offer the Red Sox made Yamamoto. According to Andy Martino of SNY TV, the Mets matched the Dodgers offer of $325 MM over 12 years. The Yankees didn’t go quite as far, but apparently touched the $300 MM milestone as well.
Let me make this clear. There’s no exception for the Red Sox not to be in the same range as these other clubs and near the very top. It’s one thing to not be chosen, especially considering what these other clubs have to offer right now, but it is unacceptable to have been cheap.
Just a few years back, a call was never made to Kevin Gausman as he reached free agency and the Red Sox were looking to capitalize on a surprise run to the ALCS against the Astros. In the years since, the lack of pitching in the big leagues has led to back-to-back seasons of last place finishes with a 78-84 record. If you won’t make yourself uncomfortable for a 25-year old phenom that was courted by the best organizations in baseball, you’ll never be able to compete with the likes of the Dodgers and Yankees again.
Eventually, the details of the Red Sox offer will get out there. That should distinguish whether there was ever any real push to live up to Tom Werner’s words of a “full throttle” offseason. So where do the Red Sox go from here?
Well, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are the top two remaining free agent starters. Snell seems like an unlikely fit at this point, considering the Red Sox prefer to avoid paying the cost of a qualifying offer and he prefers to pitch on the west coast. Ian Browne of MLB.com reported earlier in the offseason that Craig Breslow preferred Montgomery over both Aaron Nola and Snell, so that feels like the most likely route.
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 25: Blake Snell #4 of the San Diego Padres pitches against the San Francisco Giants in the first inning at Oracle Park on September 25, 2023 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
Montgomery feels like the exact type of arm the Red Sox have been missing in recent years. Someone who eats innings and constantly posts, making 30 starts in each of the last 3 seasons with a 3.48 ERA/3.62 FIP over 524.1 IP. He’s also done it in the AL East as a former member of the Yankees, shined for the Rangers in October just a few months back, and is spending his offseason in Boston.
Even if you choose to pay Montgomery, which won’t be cheap as it’s believed he’s looking for a similar contract to Carlos Rodon, that doesn’t meet the expectations laid out by Werner. Definitely a step in the right direction, but not something signaling that 2024 won’t be another bridge year to the likes of Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, and Kyle Teel. There’s no doubt that next year’s free agent class is full of impact arms, but can the Red Sox really afford another potential last place finish as the organization’s credibility continues to get slammed?
There are other free agent options, but they don’t fulfill the dream many had at the start of the offseason that Brayan Bello could be your #3 starter in 2024. Shota Imanaga fascinates me after his dominant run in the NPB, but there’s a wide range of evaluations out on him, especially after registering the best Stuff+ of any arm in the WBC. After him, we’re talking Lucas Giolito, Marcus Stroman, James Paxton, and a reclamation project like Frankie Montas.
Could another disappointing offseason followed by minimal progress during the 2024 season push Alex Cora away? Maybe. Then you lose one of the best managers in the sport, who has arguably become the face of the Red Sox at this point, as you attempt to persuade a bunch of big names to choose you.
On the trade market, I think there’s one name that currently stands out amongst the rest if you’re the Red Sox. It’s Corbin Burnes of the Milwaukee Brewers, who has one remaining year of arbitration left as $15.1 MM. He’s a true #1 that you could pair with Montgomery and still call it an “A” offseason for the Red Sox.
It’s fair to question whether the Red Sox will go hard after Burnes. Alex Speier reported earlier in the offseason that the Red Sox weren’t showing much interest in rentals like Burnes, Shane Bieber, or Tyler Glasnow before being dealt. But if ownership and Craig Breslow are serious about winning, there’s still a path to having a big offseason, even with the Mariners already turning you away.
Truth is, It’s going to make you uncomfortable and bring risk. That’s the reality of where the Red Sox stand. Burnes has Scott Boras as his agent, and has admitted himself he’d have to be “overwhelmed” to sign an extension.
Mar 12, 2022; Mesa, AZ, USA; Chicago Cubs assistant general manager Craig Breslow arrives during a spring training workout at Sloan Park. Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
If you believe Burnes is the #1 talent that can transform your team, you bet on showing him why Boston should be his home moving forward. The prospect capital will hurt a bit, but there’s a limit with it being a 1-year rental. It’s hard to have the luxury of just waiting for the perfect free agent to fall into your hands after the last couple of seasons.
Burnes isn’t coming off his strongest season in the bigs either, but after scuffling for the first few months of 2023, settled right back into posting a strong 3.32 ERA/3.81 FIP in 32 starts. He was dealing as the year winded down too, registering a 2.72 ERA in his final 16 starts. It marked the fourth straight season he finished in the Top 8 of Cy Young voting.
At the end of the day, you shouldn’t fear trading for a rental like Burnes if you’re serious about paying the man. It’s a chance for the Red Sox to control their destiny and not just throw their hands up in the sky after not finding a date to the dance. Some other intriguing trade options include Jesus Luzardo and Framber Valdez, who Ken Rosenthal reported were drawing interest last week.
The scary part about this point in the offseason is that there are still a number of teams starving for pitching and everybody knows the Red Sox are desperate. That’s no excuse for them to punt on this offseason once again, but it’ll reflect in whatever money is spent and which prospects are traded. Either way, the market is about to start flying and if the Red Sox don’t find a way to make some impact moves soon, they’ll deserve every ounce of anger that comes their way.
Don’t make promises to a fanbase that you can’t keep. Don’t fire Chaim Bloom and leak stories about his inability to make big decisions if you don’t plan on making those moves. Show the city of Boston and the fans of the Red Sox you still care about winning, John Henry, because it’s getting harder each day for anyone to still believe that.
Alex Verdugo takes shot at Alex Cora in first media session as Yankee
ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA – JULY 12: Alex Verdugo #99 of the Boston Red Sox looks on during a game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on July 12, 2022 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
The seemingly obvious jab here from Verdugo is that Cora did not have Verdugo’s back. And, according to Verdugo, not only did Cora not have his back, but he actually aired their problems out to the masses, and perhaps most damaging, Cora didn’t fight for his guys.
Of course, Verdugo’s view on Cora is almost certainly damaged by what happened between the two during the 2023 season. Early in the campaign, Cora pulled Verdugo for not hustling and benched him the next day. Later in the year, Cora benched Verdugo for being late to the ballpark.
Cora was so annoyed by Verdugo’s tardiness that he went as far to describe as one of his worst days with the organization. To say that about someone simply being late? Man, oh man, did it have to be absolutely heinous.
Their issues seemingly went beyond 2023, too, as last offseason was headlined by Cora citing Verdugo as the player who needed to improve the most.
BOSTON, MA – AUGUST 6: Alex Verdugo #99 of the Boston Red Sox looks on from the dugout during the seventh inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Fenway Park on August 6, 2023. (Winslow Townson/Getty Images)
This is also a bit of Verdugo letting his true feelings be known, as he said just three months ago that there were no hard feelings between himself and Cora or the organization as a whole for that matter. Back then (and with comments made public via an interview with The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey), Verdugo did note that there were things that could’ve been handled different, but repeatedly said that he had no hard feelings or ill will towards ‘AC’ or the Red Sox and that he was looking forward to the future.
Now that that future is taking place in the Bronx and not continuing in Boston, Verdugo spoke his truth.
Alex Verdugo #99 of the Boston Red Sox reacts after hitting an RBI home run in the bottom of the second inning of the game against the Minnesota Twins at Fenway Park on April 16, 2022. (Omar Rawlings/Getty Images)
Cora, meanwhile, seemingly took the high road when it came to tossing dirt on Verdugo in the wake of the trade that sent him to New York earlier this offseason.
“You cannot manage 26 guys the same way,” Cora said to MassLive’s Chris Cotillo earlier this month. “I listened to Jim Leyland the other day. If you manage everybody the same way, it’s not gonna happen. We have a good relationship. Actually, our kids are very tight. I had to explain to the boys (Cora’s twin sons), ‘Dugie is going to be with the Yankees.’ In the business side of it and the game side of it, we saw an opportunity to get better in an area that is our weakest point as an organization.
“We challenged him after ‘22 and he responded … it’s like everything else. There’s ups and downs. There were some situations that became public. I didn’t like that but it’s part of it. I think there was a good understanding from his end of what we were trying to accomplish.”
And while Cora has his own understanding, it’s clear that Verdugo, who admitted that he was ‘heated’ when he was traded to the Yankees, is taking it personal and ready to stick it to his old team however possible.
“I work out every day with a Yankee hat, to see how it looks on me, how it feels. Fresh start and it feels good,” Verdugo told reporters. “I just want to work hard and I want to prove, maybe, a lot of ‘he said, she said’ things wrong. I want to just show them, we’re all people, man, we’re all human. Yeah, we make mistakes. But how do we learn from them and bounce back from them and how much stronger do we get from that. I’m excited for this new fresh start.
“I want to win the World Series, but obviously, we’ve got to take it day-by-day.”
Verdugo will get his first shot to torch Cora and the Red Sox when the sides have a three-game, weekend series at Fenway Park from June 14 through June 16.
