Phil Perry: Mac Jones has the most at stake in the Germany game
Phil Perry of NBC Sports Boston joins Zolak & Bertrand in studio ahead of the Patriots matchup against the Colts in Germany on Sunday. While much of the narrative has surrounded the job security of Bill Belichick, Perry says someone else has more at stake this weekend:
‘Nobody has more at stake this week’
“I wonder how you guys feel about some of the commentary this week on on Mac Jones, especially after that game against the Commanders. Because my initial takeaway from that game, and not to say that Mac Jones played well because I didn’t think that he played well. My initial reaction was, ‘Oh my God, if they just had someone who could actually catch the football, they might have actually won a game here today.'”
“Jalen Reagor drops a 50-plus yard touchdown. JuJu Smith-Schuster drops a late game, obviously ends up getting picked, but that puts you in a field goal range. It’s a tied game. Who knows where it goes from there? My initial takeaway from that game was the quarterback held you back again. It’s ‘look at what is around the guy’. That’s the initial takeaway. I know how some people in the building feel about him and have felt about him for the vast majority of the season. But it feels like nobody has more at stake this week in Germany than Mac Jones, and that includes Bill Belichick. Because I really feel Bill Belichick is not going to get dismissed mid-season.”
Phil also feels like a poor showing from Mac Jones in Germany could result in the quarterback giving way to either Bailey Zappe or Will Grier and taking a seat on the bench. To hear more of the conversation, check out the full segment here:
Another country, another matchup: Patriots vs. Colts What To Watch For
Stop the run
CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – NOVEMBER 05: Jonathan Taylor #28 of the Indianapolis Colts carries the ball during the second quarter of the game against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium on November 05, 2023 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Eakin Howard/Getty Images)
The Colts’ plan to win the game is simply, run the ball. It’s been there identity all year – they’re averaging 134 rushing yards per game in their wins, and 114.8 in their losses. For the season, their 4.3 yards per attempt rank 11th in the league. Since the return of all-pro running back Jonathan Taylor in Week 5 they rank ninth in that category.
Taylor was a problem for the Patriots in that 2021 matchup rushing for 170 yards on 29 carries, including a 67-yard run to ice the game in the fourth quarter. Last year Taylor missed the Patriots matchup, and without him the Colts ran for just 78 yards on 22 carries.
With Taylor, the key it to hit him early and not let him build steam. This year he’s averaging more yards after first contact per carry (2.3) than before (1.8). He’s also breaking a tackle on average every 7.8 carries – a career best.
For the Patriots to get to Taylor early, they’ll need to win at the line of scrimmage. That puts defensive tackles Christian Barmore and Davon Godchaux in the spotlight.
As much as the Patriots’ defense struggled last week, Barmore and Godchaux were the lone bright spots. Barmore, in particular, has been arguably the Patriots’ best player for the last month. Meanwhile, they’ll be going against a Colts interior offensive line that has struggled this year. In particular, four-time All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson hasn’t been himself this year – especially against the run. His 56.3 PFF run blocking grade to this point is a career low.
If the Patriots can win up front and slow down the running game it will force the Colts to put the ball in the hands of backup quarterback Gardner Minshew (starter Anthony Richardson is out for the season). While Minshew is one of the league’s best backups, he hasn’t been able to consistently win games throwing the ball in his career.
Minshew has thrown for over 300 yards eight times in his career, and is 0-8 in those games. When throwing for over 250 yards, he’s 3-11. Even with their banged-up secondary, it would benefit the Patriots to have Minshew and the passing game decide this game for the Colts, not Taylor and the running game.
What will the wide receiver rotation look like?
Aug 10, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots wide receiver Tyquan Thornton (11) during the first half against the Houston Texans at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
Another week, another chance to see how the Patriots view their wide receiver room. Which players will get more or less of a chance compared to how much they played last week?
Just as a refresher, Demario Douglas played the most snaps of any Patriots wide receiver last week at 83 percent. Jalen Reagor was next at 77 percent, followed by JuJu Smith-Schuster at 36 percent. Tyquan Thornton played 19 percent of the snaps but those all came early in the game – he was benched four minutes into the second quarter. Additionally tight end Mike Gesicki, who Bill Belichick called the team’s “fourth receiver,” played 86 percent of the snaps as the team relied heavily on ’12’ personnel.
With DeVante Parker ruled out for the second week in a row, the personnel available is the same as last week. Will anything change though? Will Thornton’s benching carry over to another week? If it does, the Patriots may not have any choice but to finally activate rookie Kayshon Boutte. If both Thornton and Boutte don’t play the Patriots are leaving themselves very thin in terms of personnel at the position, and will have to ask for a lot from Gesicki.
A clean game from the special teams units
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – NOVEMBER 05: Brenden Schooler #41 of the New England Patriots reacts during the second half in the game against the Washington Commanders at Gillette Stadium on November 05, 2023 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
The Patriots’ special teams units have struggled all season, but last week their mistakes were magnified. While the defense was able to work around a 37-yard kickoff return to open the game, penalties on punts late in the game proved costly.
In what is likely to be a low-scoring, ball-control, field position battle against the Colts, the Patriots can’t afford to make similar special teams mistakes. This is a week the Patriots need the kicking units to be a positive, not a negative.
One other thing to watch on special teams – the scoreboard. Last week’s game in Frankfurt between the Chiefs and Dolphins saw punters hitting the suspended scoreboard at Deutsche Bank Park during warm-ups. Prior to the Patriots’ Week 4 game in Dallas we highlighted the challenges a low scoreboard can pose on special teams – those will all be in play again this week.
