We’re back with the Week 10 edition of the 98.5 The Sports Hub New England Patriots Mailbag. This week, we’ll mainly be looking at the future of the team.
After a 20-17 loss to the Washington Commanders on Sunday, naturally the majority of the questions this week relate to the long-term, outlook of the team, rather than the rest of this 2023 season.
READ MORE:
—Bill Belichick is now openly facing questions about his job status
—Jack Jones’ postgame social media activity had people talking
—Full Patriots coverage
Now at 2-7, the offseason is in full focus. That includes potential moves with the coaching staff, as well as the roster?
How does the long-term outlook stack up right now? Let’s star there with this week’s mailbag…
Ryan Jame on Twitter: "It's debatable if the Patriots are the worst team in the league, but do you think they are dead last in terms of hope and the future? Feels life every position needs overhaul and a head coach that may be tricky to replace. / Twitter"
It's debatable if the Patriots are the worst team in the league, but do you think they are dead last in terms of hope and the future? Feels life every position needs overhaul and a head coach that may be tricky to replace.
This is a great question Ryan. In terms of, let’s call it a five-year outlook, I don’t think the Patriots are last in the league simply because they have opportunities ahead of them.
While the Patriots may have one of the worst records in football, they don’t have some of the long-term issues that many teams with similar records are facing. They aren’t tied into any massive, long-term contracts with poorly-performing players and still have all of their premium draft capital. That’s counter to some teams like the Broncos (gave up significant draft capital and paid Russell Wilson), Giants (paid Daniel Jones this past offseason), Rams (who are in salary cap hell with dead money), or Panthers (traded their 2024 first-round pick last year to move up for Bryce Young).
Yes the Patriots need to start from scratch, which is never an ideal place to be. But, they are in a good position right now to do so with only 43 players currently under contract for next year, a projected $92.7 million in cap space (per OverTheCap.com), and two top-40 picks likely at their disposal. That doesn’t mean the rebuild will be easy, but they’re not working through some of the road blocks other teams with similar records are.
Sam Robson Celtics fan for life banner 18 on Twitter: "When do the Patriots make a change at head coach? / Twitter"
When do the Patriots make a change at head coach?
We’re in uncharted territory when it comes to moving on from a coach like Bill Belichick, so it’s hard to get a grasp on where things stand. Some reports have Belichick coaching for his job this week in Germany, while some others say he’ll make it through the season no matter what.
There is one important thing to keep in mind though when it comes to Bill Belichick’s job status – an angle that hasn’t been discussed much to this point. There have been some rumors that the Patriots could look to trade Belichick to make room for his replacement, rather than fire him outright.
If that’s something the Patriots even want to just explore, than they can’t fire Belichick this season. The trade deadline has passed, so they can’t move him right now (and even if they could, the logistics of an in-season coaching trade would be mind-boggling) and would have to wait until the offseason. Of course, if they fire him before that, he’s no longer their asset to trade.
That doesn’t mean that Belichick’s potential trade value may ‘save his job,’ or that him not being fired by the end of the regular season means he’s a lock to be traded. It’s just another variable at play in an already-complex situation.
J Smooth on Twitter: "Hey Alex, with the recent report that Kraft's "home run choice" for head coach is Mike Vrabel how likely do you think that possibly is & what would the compensation be in a trade? What happens to Jerod Mayo in that situation too DC? / Twitter"
Hey Alex, with the recent report that Kraft's "home run choice" for head coach is Mike Vrabel how likely do you think that possibly is & what would the compensation be in a trade? What happens to Jerod Mayo in that situation too DC?
During his Patriots Hall of Fame induction weekend a few weeks back, Mike Vrabel seemed like a guy who genuinely missed the Patriots and being in New England. That’s not based on any inside information, it’s just my read on the situation.
That being said, missing New England is one thing. Shooting your way out of a stable job to come back to an unstable situation is another. Early in the season, it looked like Tennessee might be another wheel-spinning team like the Patriots. However, the emergence of rookie quarterback Will Levis may make Vrabel more inclined to stay, if he thinks it will expediate the rebuild. Stranger things have happened, but Vrabel spurring the Titans for the Patriots isn’t what I’d call a ‘likely’ outcome.
Liam Frieswick on Twitter: "Barriers aside, who should be the next HC? Ben Johnson is intriguing, if they could get Vrabel I'd love that. Although you'd need a great OC. / Twitter"
Barriers aside, who should be the next HC? Ben Johnson is intriguing, if they could get Vrabel I'd love that. Although you'd need a great OC.
When talking about external candidates to be the next head coach of the Patriots there are three names that come to mind first – Mike Vrabel, Eric Bieniemy, and Ben Johnson.
Bieniemy has done an excellent job in Washington, as Patriots fans saw this weekend. He’s certainly proved his success in Kansas City goes beyond simple proximity to Patrick Mahomes and that he can put a young quarterback in position to succeed.
As for Johnson, he is still one of the most creative offensive minds in the league right now who isn’t already ahead coach. He’s had the Lions’ offense punching well above its weight class for a year and a half now. Given how much turnover the Patriots will need on the offensive side of the ball, his ability to maximize players would be very helpful during that multi-year process.
Don't F**K With UConn on Twitter: "Let's put our preferences aside and assume we ask Bill to chose between Marvin Harrison Jr or Brock Bowers. Who do you think he picks? / Twitter"
Let's put our preferences aside and assume we ask Bill to chose between Marvin Harrison Jr or Brock Bowers. Who do you think he picks?
Joe Alt.
KG on Twitter: "Any chance JJ McCarthy is available early in the second round? / Twitter"
Any chance JJ McCarthy is available early in the second round?
Somewhere between 32-50 seems like the sweet spot for J.J. McCarthy right now. He’s shown some encouraging signs of growth this season but his overall workload remains limited (he’s averaging just over 20 pass attempts per game this season) and he’s yet to face an elite opponent this year.
This week against Penn State will be a big test, and if he plays well he could have a chance to prove he’s worth a late-first-round pick. For now though he looks to be the top Day 2 option at the position.
Jason C on Twitter: "Is there a chance Cole Strange might be decent after all? / Twitter"
Is there a chance Cole Strange might be decent after all?
Right now, Cole Strange’s biggest issue is dealing with power rushers. That shouldn’t come as a surprise given his makeup coming out of Chattanooga last year, but it’s still an area he needs to improve.
Part of the problem right now is likely that Strange missed most of the summer with a knee injury. The best way to improve the parts of Strange’s game he needs to work on is simply by taking reps, something he didn’t get to do in a coachable environment as he began his second year in the NFL.
There’s nothing that can be done about that now and both he and the team need to find other ways he can improve his game – both this year and heading into 2023 – but it certainly seems like a factor. Until he improves in that regard, his ceiling remains limited.
Bret Judkins on Twitter: "What is with Gesicki? He use to be good! He roasted NE a few times. TE or big WR who cares? He can play he can catch he can move (maybe as good or better than Parker). Why doesn't NE use him to receive instead of block? He should be a play maker. / Twitter"
What is with Gesicki? He use to be good! He roasted NE a few times. TE or big WR who cares? He can play he can catch he can move (maybe as good or better than Parker). Why doesn't NE use him to receive instead of block? He should be a play maker.
Going back to Mike Gesicki’s signing and some of what was said at the time, I wonder if the main plan for him was to use him as a red zone threat. That’s obviously been tough to do with how little the Patriots have been in the red zone – their 77 red zone snaps this year are the fourth-fewest in the NFL.
Beyond that, his skillset overlaps pretty significantly with Hunter Henry’s. While early on the Patriots tired having both of them on the field at the same time, the struggles of the offensive line have created a bigger blocking role for the tight end position. That’s why Gesicki was blocking so often early on, although that role seems to be trending more towards Pharaoh Brown at this point.
Ed Helinski 🇺🇸🇵🇱 on Twitter: "In your opinion, how demoralized is this Patriots team? If they lose to the Colts in Germany, does the organization go into tank mode for the rest of the season? / Twitter"
In your opinion, how demoralized is this Patriots team? If they lose to the Colts in Germany, does the organization go into tank mode for the rest of the season?
It feels like what we’ve seen is pretty much what we’re going to get from this team at this point. The players who would check out likely already have, and those who are still dug in probably won’t be swayed at this point. There’s not much of a difference between 3-7 and 2-8 right now in that regard.
As for ‘tank mode,’ tanking doesn’t happen at the player level. Despite the performance of the team has a whole players still need to put out good tape to earn roster spot next year, whether it be with the Patriots or elsewhere. There’s no incentive for them to purposely play worse.
Alex Barth is a writer and digital producer for 985TheSportsHub.com. Any opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of 98.5 The Sports Hub, Beasley Media Group, or any subsidiaries. Thoughts? Comments? Questions? Looking for a podcast guest? Let him know on Twitter @RealAlexBarth or via email at [email protected].
