Taking a deeper look at the Bruins’ path to 2025 postseason play
The math does not look promising for the Bruins.
As the team sits at the 4 Nations Face-Off break, the Bruins have been given a 14.9 percent chance of making the playoffs according to MoneyPuck.com’s model, while PlayoffStatus.com has them at 26 percent. Those are mere projections, of course. But the Bruins’ struggles have also been enough for both president Cam Neely and general manager Don Sweeney — even if they’re doing it through gritted teeth and in some cases not even saying the ‘selling’ word itself — to consider the idea of the Bruins venturing down an unfamiliar path this deadline season.
But what if the Bruins do make a strong post-break push at qualifying for the 16-team dance?
And, more specifically, what would that take for the Black and Gold?
Just looking at recent history in the Eastern Conference over the last five 82-game seasons (this excludes the pandemic-shortened 2019-20 season and pandemic-delayed 2020-21 season), qualifying for the postseason has required an average of 97.2 points. The lowest point total over that span came with the 91-point Capitals a year ago, while the 107-point Bruins in 2021-22 were the top wild card club from a points standpoint over this 10-team sample. This season, current projections indicate that qualifying for a wild card spot in the East would take somewhere between 90 to 94 points.
The Bruins, by the way, currently sit with 60 points through 56 games, which has them at ninth place in the conference and on what’s currently an 88-point pace.
Taking all of that into account, some quick and unscientific math here indicates that the Bruins would need to amass at least 30 points over their final 26 games of the season. Keeping it simple, that would mean 15 wins in 26 games down the stretch. If the Bruins were to be ‘loser point merchants’ on that path, they could in theory get away with it and still qualify for the postseason with just 12 wins so long as they racked up six overtime losses over that span (12-8-6 would be the record on such a path). The Bruins aren’t exactly lagging behind in the ‘regulation win’ and regulation and overtime wins’ categories (and potential tiebreakers), so it’s not the most impossible path in this year’s race.
Of course, this is where we have to mention that the Bruins have put together just one (O-N-E) win streak of at least three games this season. That came back in December, and with a stretch that included games against the Canadiens, Red Wings, Blackhawks, Flyers. All of those clubs with the exception of the Red Wings are in the group of 12 teams with worse point percentages than the Bruins this season, and if we go back to when that stretch occurred in the first week of December, all four were.
The Bruins are also coming off back-to-back regulation losses when leading after 40 minutes — the Bruins captured 36 of a possible 40 points in that spot before capturing zero of a possible four in back-to-back losses to the Rangers and Golden Knights leading into the break — so perhaps it’s not the best time to have any sort of confidence when it comes to banking any and every point.
But! But! But!
We simply can’t what’s going in the East this season: It’s a race full of flawed teams.
The Senators, currently in the top wild card spot, entered the break on a three-game slide. The Red Wings, who are in the second wild card spot, have been on an absolute heater since making a coaching change, but whether or not that’s truly sustainable remains to be seen. Below them and around the Bruins, the Blue Jackets and Islanders are going through obvious and significant injury concerns, and the Rangers have been a team that’s been as equally flawed as the Black and Gold in 2024-25.
And here the Bruins are, waiting to return from the 4 Nations Face-Off break with the ninth-easiest schedule remaining. Of course, it’s on the Bruins to make it truly easy (something that hasn’t always been the case for them in 2024-25), but their post-break slate features multiple games against the surely-selling Sabres and Penguins, as well as additional head-to-heads with Chicago and San Jose. The Bruins will even get a potential strong start opportunity out of the gate with a home-ice head-to-head against the Ducks (11 wins in 27 road games this season) on Feb. 22.
The Red Wings, meanwhile, will return with the hardest schedule in the league. It truly is the hardest schedule in the league, too, with an entire season series worth of games to be played against the Wild, Golden Knights, and Hurricanes, as well as a pair of head-to-heads with the Panthers and Caps. Columbus will have the fifth-hardest schedule in hockey out of the break, while the Islanders and Rangers rank sixth and seventh in that spot. In fact, the only team in the hunt with the Bruins with an ‘easier’ schedule than Boston is Ottawa, whose strength of schedule sits at .530 compared to Boston’s .544.
This is all a long way of saying that while the current math is the math and paints an unfavorable picture for the Bruins, it’s math that has more than its share of positive variables for Joe Sacco’s Bruins.
Beyond the obvious of their own job security, perhaps that’s why the Bruins have been so reluctant to openly throw in the towel on pushing for a playoff spot and embracing a selloff despite countless gut-punch losses and a 56-game sample of “they are what their record says they are.”
For the Bruins, every game from here on out is a must-win. That’s no secret. But the focus will be on potential ‘four-point’ swing kind of games, which will come with post-break showdowns against the Islanders (Feb. 27), Senators (Mar. 13), and Detroit (Mar. 29). The problem is that only one will come before the Mar. 7 trade deadline, which will only complicate the decisions in front of Sweeney.
Now, whether or not the Bruins should push to be potential first-round fodder for a juggernaut is its own argument. If there’s ever been a season for the Bruins to embrace a few steps back or short-term pain for long-term gains, it’s this one.
But even with the math not looking great, the path is still well lit for the Bruins.
And for an organization that has not actively ‘sold’ in almost 20 years, that may be all that matters.
