Putting names and numbers to the Patriots’ roster bubble
How many spots are left up for grabs on the Patriots’ roster? Who will win them? Let’s take a closer look at the Patriots’ roster bubble.
The final week of training camp is here, which means it’s now crunch time for those players sitting ‘on the bubble’ on the Patriots’ roster. There are six practices and one preseason game left for players to prove why they belong on the team.
How many players are in that group competing to still earn a spot? And how many spots are there to be won? It’s time for our annual in-depth look at the Patriots’ roster bubble, where we put names and numbers to the concept that is generally talked about in the abstract.
First, let’s look at the ‘bubble’ itself. When it comes to narrowing down the 53-man roster from 90 players, it’s not simply just picking the 53 best players. There are certain factors that need to be factored in, such as positional depth and draft stock.
For instance, every team is going to carry at least two quarterbacks – a starter and a backup. But the backup isn’t always one of the 53 best players on the team. The same can be said for other positions as well – the vast majority of teams carry at least three running backs, four wide receivers, and on and on. That means of the 53 spots, some can only be won by players of a certain position (yes, practice squad elevations can be a temporary workaround for this, but those have their limitations).
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There’s also players who are ‘project players’ who may not contribute immediately, but the team drafted to develop over multiple years. If teams don’t want to risk losing those players on waivers, they’ll take up a spot as well.
Think about it like March Madness. It’s a 68-team tournament, but it’s not the 68 best teams in the nation. Some spots are reserved as automatic bids for conference champions, who often aren’t as good as some of the middle-of-the-standings Power 5 schools who end up getting left out. The spots in the tournament left for the non-conference-champions are given to the best teams remaining, and are called ‘at-large’ spots.
In the same way, there are ‘at-large’ spots on an NFL roster. Once the positional minimums have been accounted for, you’re left with a handful of roster spots that can truly be won by the best players left, regardless of position.
Once you’re accounting for the positional minimums, there are about 14 of those spots left. But, that number shrinks further. Teams may have more roster locks at a position than the minimum number they’re expected to keep (ex. if a team has five or six really good cornerbacks, with the minimum number being four). Roster locks can also be recently-drafted project players who are sticking around for the long-term. Dedicated special teamers also take up spots here.
The Patriots do have a few such situations where younger players put them over the positional minimums. That leaves this year’s ‘roster bubble’ in New England at somewhere between seven and 10 spots (about the same as last year, and up from two years ago), depending on what the team does with players on PUP (Kendrick Bourne and Sione Takitaki) as well as Marte Mapu, who hasn’t practiced since the first day of camp and could start the season on IR.
For now let’s call it nine spots, just to open more opportunities. How many players are in the running for those jobs?
Going off of what we’ve seen during training camp practices, preseason games, and comments from the coaches, 23 players appear to be ‘on the bubble’ for the Patriots as things stand right now. Here’s who looks to be in that group at this point…
QB Joe Milton
QB Bailey Zappe
RB JaMycal Hasty
RB Terrell Jennings
WR Jalen Reagor
WR Tyquan Thornton
WR Kayshon Boutte
TE Jaheim Bell
TE Mitchell Wilcox
OT Calvin Anderson
IOL Atonio Mafi
IOL Michael Jordan
DL Armon Watts
DL Trysten Hill
DL Mike Purcell
LB Raekwon McMillan
CB Marco Wilson
CB Shaun Wade
CB Isaiah Bolden
CB Marcellas Dial
S Joshuah Bledsoe
S Dell Pettus
Note: If a player isn’t listed here, we’re likely counting him as a roster lock. Check out our latest Patriots roster projection for reference.
Now, not all of these players currently have equal chances to make the roster though. Some are ahead of others, for any number of reasons. For one thing, some have simply performed better than others this summer, giving them the inside track on current positions.
Positional needs will come into play here too. For instance, the minimum number of quarterbacks teams typically keep is two, but the Patriots – from everything we’ve heard – seem more likely to keep three. That creates and extra spot for Milton or Zappe, who are both on the bubble. For the other one to make the roster as a fourth quarterback though, they’d have to prove to be one of the best seven or eight players of the 21 remaining.
Other positions that could get some help in similar fashion are offensive tackle and cornerback. At tackle, Anderson is basically trying to prove he’s worth keeping, over the team going out and making an external addition at tackle. Meanwhile at cornerback, not all four of Wilson, Wade, Bolden, and Dial will be cut as the team likely wants to keep at least five cornerbacks for depth (especially given the injury history of some of the guys ahead of them). Still, making the team beyond that fifth spot becomes more of an at-large conversation.
Then it comes down to players who are simply out-performing others. For instance, players like Jalen Reagor, Trysten Hill, Raekwon McMillan, and Marco Wilson have all had strong summers and should have the inside track on some of those at-large spots. Meanwhile, heading into the final week it feels like players such as Tyquan Thornton, Mitchell Wilcox, Atonio Mafi, and Armon Watts have a gap to close.
At the same time, players can be battling for a specific spot on the roster but not be on the bubble. That’s the case at kicker this year, where Joey Slye and Chad Ryland are competing for the Patriots’ starting job. Only one will get it, but the other most likely won’t factor into the remaining 23 spots because it doesn’t make sense for the team to keep two kickers. Going back to the March Madness analogy, think of the kicker battle as a smaller conference championship, where neither team has the resume for an at-large bid.
So, that’s the math for the next week-plus in New England, before rosters have to be down to 53 players on Tuesday Aug. 27 at 4 p.m. ET. Who will make it from the bubble onto the Patriots’ roster? We’ll know soon enough.
