Crunching the numbers on the Patriots’ roster bubble

We've reached crunch time when it comes to New England Patriots training camp. On Tuesday the team will begin the final week of training camp practices, leading into the final preseason game of the year against the Tennessee Titans on Thursday. For players 'on the bubble,' this can be a make-or-break week for landing a spot on the initial 53-man roster.

That 'on the bubble' term gets thrown around a lot this time of year. It refers to players who have about a 50-50 shot at making the team, and project to be either on the fringe of the roster or among the toughest cuts. It's often talked about in the abstract, but there's actually a way to concretely quantify it as well.

READ MORE:

-- Patriots roster projection 3.0
-- Ups & Downs from Saturday night in Green Bay
-- 12 takeaways from the Patriots' preseason matchup with the Packers

When it comes to building a 53-man NFL roster from a 90-man training camp roster, it's not as simple as just picking the best 53 players. There are other factors that come into play, such as positional depth and draft stock. For instance, the backup quarterback may not be one of the 53 best players on the 90-man roster, but every team is going to need to keep a backup quarterback. That might bump the 53rd best player off the roster. There's also players who are 'project players' who may not contribute immediately, but the team drafted to develop over multiple years. If teams don't want to risk losing those players on waivers, they'll take up a spot as well.

Think about it like March Madness. It's a 68 team tournament, but it's not the 68 best teams in the country. Certain spots are held for automatic bids for conference champions. Then you have 'at-large' spots, that can be given to any team.

In a way, there are 'at-large' roster spots on an NFL roster too. After accounting for positional minimums and roster locks, the 'at-large' roster spots are what remain.

How many 'at-large' roster spots are there? Not a lot. Based on NFL rosters from the past few years, every team is going to keep at least two quarterbacks, three running backs, etc. Subtract those spots from the 53 total roster spots, and it leaves a background, league-wide number of 13 spots that can go to the best player available.

But the number shrinks beyond that on a team-by-team basis, when accounting for roster locks. For instance, the positional minimum at linebacker is five players, but the Patriots currently have six players that project as locks. That takes a spot away. The same is likely true at wide receiver, where Demario Douglas' incredibly high chance at making the team puts the Patriots at five players, one over the minimum. The original subtractions also don't count for special teams specific players like Matthew Slater, who takes another spot.

When it's all put together, this year's Patriots team projects to have eight or nine 'at-large' roster spots up for grabs - depending whether or not Michael Onwenu comes off PUP for the start of the season (the Patriots are over the positional minimum for interior offensive linemen, so Onwenu not being on the active roster would open up an at-large spot). That's actually up from last year, when the projected number was five or six.

So we know how big the Patriots' roster bubble is. Now the other half of the equation - who is on it? Based on what we've seen so far in camp, there are 24 players competing for those nine spots, with another five who aren't healthy right now but would enter the mix if cleared to play in time. Here's a look at that group, in order of position...

So this is the math of the next week and a half in New England. For players in this group to make the team, they basically need to prove they're among the nine best

Granted, some players 'on the bubble' are closer to the roster than others. They're not all starting from the same spot, as their entire body of work throughout camp factors in.

For instance, the team seems to have a plan in place for Malik Cunningham. He's probably as close of a lock as there is on that list. Kayshon Boutte is another rookie who has definitely made a case.

Others such as Daniel Ekuale, Anfernee Jennings, and Calvin Munson have been regularly involved so far this summer and figure to be on, but the Patriots have made moves in the past that suggest they're not quite locks just yet. Some who have been here in the past like those players listed above as well as guys like Brenden Schooler, Mack Wilson, and James Ferentz might also have an edge.

Some may also get a bump based on position. The Patriots project to be under the positional minimums at running back, offensive tackle, and defensive lineman based on who appear to be roster locks right now. So for players at those positions, they may be able to be 'outside' that nine-player threshold and still make the team, if they can just beat out the other players at their position.

Then there's the case of Nick Folk. Kickers, punters, and long snappers rarely end up on the 'at-large' bubble. They're usually competing at their own position, as those aren't spots where teams keep 'depth' on the active roster. However, this year's kicker situation in New England is unique.

Chad Ryland is projected as a roster lock, given he's looked like an NFL kicker in camp and the Patriots have never released a healthy fourth-round pick in the Bill Belichick era (per Miguel Benzan on Twitter). Yet the Patriots are still giving Folk reps like he's competing for an active roster spot. They also have both kickers working with rookie Bryce Baringer - who looks like he's won the starting punting job - as a holder.

While it's possible they're showcasing Folk as a trade piece, he's a well-established veteran teams should be familiar with. It looks more like the Patriots are giving Folk a chance to earn a spot as the second kicker on the active roster behind Ryland. That would likely look like a college setup, with Folk the short field goal kicker and Ryland the long field goal and kickoff specialist.

Overall, there's still a lot of moving pieces on the Patriots' roster, and a lot can happen in a week. But as we enter the final stretch, all of this is what "on the bubble" means in New England in 2023. In the meantime, here's where the roster projects to stand now with our latest roster projection...

With another New England Patriots preseason game in the books, it's time for a new roster projection. After a week in Green Bay consisting of two joint practices and a preseason game, what's changed since we last checked in on the roster following the preseason opener against the Houston Texans?

At this time of year, it's important to remember that not every training camp practice is valued the same when it comes to player evaluation and making roster decisions. A non-padded practice in the first week of camp doesn't carry nearly as much weight as joint practices later in the summer. The Patriots' two joint practices this week represented the most high-intensity, highly-scrutinized reps the players have seen so far. With next weeks' joint practices with the Titans being canceled, they should end up as the most important non-game reps of the summer.

READ MORE:

-- Patriots issue positive update on injured rookie cornerback Isaiah Bolden, cancel joint practices
-- Ups & Downs from Saturday night in Green Bay
-- 12 takeaways from the Patriots' preseason matchup with the Packers

Of course, game reps are important when it comes to figuring out the initial roster as well. Unlike last week, the Patriots played the majority of their roster in this game - as did the Packers. So not only did we get to see players fighting for depth chart spots as well as roster spots, but we got to see them against comparable competition.

Given all of that, where does the roster stand heading in to the final week of training camp? Which players put themselves in the best position with one preseason game left to play? And who could get left on the outside looking in? Let's take a look with Roster Projection 3.0.

Note: Players are listed alphabetically by position, not as a projected depth chart. Rookies are in italics.

--Malik Cunningham
--Mac Jones
--Bailey Zappe

Still no changes here. Although we didn't get to see Cunningham at QB in Saturday night's game, we played plenty of wide receiver and got a chance to return a kickoff as well. That, combined with his continued involvement during joint practices as a package player makes it clear the Patriots do have a plan for him in 2023. We just don't know what it is yet, and won't until the regular season begins.

Changes from Roster Projection 2.0: None

--Ezekiel Elliott
--Rhamondre Stevenson
--Pierre Strong

Last week we went a little off the grid and included a 'TBD' running back in the projection. That turned out to be the right call, as we can formalize Elliott into that spot this week.

After Elliott and Stevenson though, this group is one of the toughest to project. Strong still gets the nod because it's rare for a fourth-round pick to be cut after just one season, and he adds a much-needed speed element the other two backs here don't. However, if he can't get healthy soon he could face a challenge for that spot.

That could come from fellow 2022 draft pick Kevin Harris, although his skillset overlaps heavily with Elliott and Stevenson. There could also be a case made for J.J. Taylor, who does have more of a passing-down skillset and was one of the Patriots' best players on Saturday night. At the same time, given the fact that the Patriots could probably get Taylor, Harris, or even potentially Ty Montgomery to the practice squad, it's still very possible they're initial cuts and then brought back later on as practice squad elevations or signed if players go on IR.

Changes from 2.0: Replaced 'TBD running back' with Ezekiel Elliott

--Kendrick Bourne
--Kayshon Boutte
--Demario Douglas
--DeVante Parker
--JuJu Smith-Schuster
--Tyquan Thornton

The entire week in Green Bay, but Saturday night especially, was a strong affirmation that the idea the Patriots could keep six wide receivers is alive and well. They certainly have six NFL-caliber wide receivers, it's just a matter of making the numbers work with the rest of the roster - which we've done here.

Boutte and Douglas both flashed significantly against the Packers. Meanwhile, Thornton suffered a shoulder injury on Thursday that resulted in him not dressing for the game, and his injury has since been qualified as "week-to-week." It would be surprising to see Thornton get cut given his status as a second-year second-round pick, but his spot on the depth chart is slipping and will continue to slip if he continues to miss time. If Thornton needs to spend time on IR, that should almost guarantee both rookie receivers make the team.

Changes from 2.0: None

--Mike Gesicki
--Hunter Henry

Despite Gesicki's shoulder injury that could put his Week 1 status in doubt, we're sticking with just two tight ends on the initial roster. Why? Because none of the depth tight ends have shown enough where the Patriots would risk losing them trying to get them on the practice squad. Whoever ends up winning the third tight end battle (Anthony Firkser seems to have the edge for Matt Sokol right now) could be released and brought back on the practice squad, or brought back outright after another player is placed on IR.

Changes from 2.0: None

--C David Andrews
--C/G Jake Andrews
--T Trent Brown
--G Atonio Mafi
--T Conor McDermott
--G/T Mike Onwenu
--T/G Riley Reiff
--T/G Sidy Sow
--G Cole Strange

Sow is back on our roster after plugging in at right tackle for the majority of the week since that Houston game. If the plan isn't for him to start at right tackle, the Patriots seem to at least want him to factor in there somehow.

The other big question here is what happens with players still on the inactive lists with the season quickly approaching. We have Onwenu on the roster right now despite the fact he's still on PUP. If he begins the season on that list, it could mean either the Patriots keeping eight offensive linemen or potentially open up a spot for 2022 sixth-round pick Chasen Hines, who has looked good.

At tackle, Calvin Anderson remains on NFI. If he is activated in time and is in game shape, he could push McDermott for the third tackle spot.

Changes from 2.0: ADDED Sidy Sow

--Christian Bamore
--Daniel Ekuale
--Davon Godchaux
--Lawrence Guy
--Keion White
--Deatrich Wise

We reach the position of another player right on the Patriots' roster bubble - nose tackle Carl Davis. One one hand, the Patriots struggled against the run on Saturday night which could be a sign they need more big bodies in the middle of their defensive line. On the other hand, Davis was on the field for many of those plays, and struggled to close lanes at the point of attack.

Davis is still very much in the picture to earn a roster spot with the Patriots. But for now, we have him just off the roster and a likely candidate to come back via a veteran practice squad spot.

Changes from 2.0: None

--Ja’Whaun Bentley
--Chris Board
--Anfernee Jennings
--Matthew Judon
--Marte Mapu
--Jahlani Tavai
--Josh Uche

There's very little overlap between the skill sets of players in this group, which is how so many linebackers end up making the roster. The Patriots would probably like to have Mack Wilson too as a potential backup/insurance plan for Mapu, but the cuts have to come somewhere. He ends up just off the initial roster.

Changes from 2.0: CUT Mack Wilson

--Myles Bryant
--Christian Gonzalez
--Jack Jones
--Jonathan Jones
--Marcus Jones

The Patriots are clearly trying to find an answer for a third true boundary corner behind Gonzalez and Jack Jones (that role is currently held by Jonathan Jones, who should return to being the team's top slot corner this year). Shaun Wade and rookie Ameer Speed are in contention for that spot, as was Isaiah Bolden before Saturday night's injury. One of those players could hold that spot from the practice squad and be elevated as needed, but to this point nobody has impressed enough to win the spot with a 53-man roster placement.

Changes from 2.0: None

--Joshuah Bledsoe
--Kyle Dugger
--Jalen Mills
--Jabrill Peppers
--Adrian Phillips

Bledsoe sneaks on the roster here. for now He played wire-to-wire in the Patriots' preseason opener then was second on the team in snaps Saturday night with 41. The Patriots clearly like him, and he sticks around.

Changes from 2.0: ADD Joshuah Bledsoe

--K Nick Folk
--K Chad Ryland
--P Bryce Baringer
--LS Joe Cardona

That's right, the two kicker talk isn't going anywhere. The Patriots split the reps evenly between Folk and Ryland on Saturday night, a sign that the competition still exists. Yet it is highly unlikely they'll part ways with Ryland - every healthy Patriots fourth-round pick in the Bill Belichick era has made the initial roster as a rookie. That all leaves the possibility of the team initially keeping two kickers - Folk as the short field goal kicker and Ryland as a kickoff and long field goal specialist - on the table.

Meanwhile, Baringer bounced back from a rough couple of days in Green Bay with a very good performance in Saturday night's game. He's still the leader for the punter job.

Changes from 2.0: None

--Calvin Munson
--Brenden Schooler
--Matthew Slater

On one hand, the Patriots seem ready to carry less dedicated special teams coverage players than usual after releasing Jourdan Heilig and DaMarcus Mitchell last week. At the same time, Munson has been getting a ton of run not only with the special teams units, but also the top defensive units as a reserve linebacker. He's another player the Patriots clearly have a plan for, so expect him to stick around.

Changes from 2.0: ADD Calvin Munson, CUT Jourdan Heilig, DaMarcus Mitchell

Last 3 on:

--K Nick Folk
--OT Conor McDermott
--S Joshuah Bledsoe

Last 3 off:

--LB Mack Wilson
--DL Carl Davis
--RB J.J. Taylor

Alex Barth is a writer and digital producer for 985TheSportsHub.com. Any opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of 98.5 The Sports Hub, Beasley Media Group, or any subsidiaries. Thoughts? Comments? Questions? Looking for a podcast guest? Let him know on Twitter @RealAlexBarth or via email at abarth@985TheSportsHub.com.