Mike Reiss: I give Drake Maye a 20% chance of winning the starting job for Week 1

Zolak and Bertrand are live from Patriots Training Camp and are joined by ESPN NFL Nation Reporter Mike Reiss, who shares his prediction about the franchise’s quarterback situation.

Bertrand: I think they're committed to starting Jacoby Brissett Week 1, though.

Reiss: You think there's nothing that can happen?

Bertrand: I don't think they're going to move off that spot, and I think they're committed to that. I think the only question is, how soon are they willing to move off of that?

Zolak: Feels like they're coming off it more than—

Bertrand: No, once the season begins. After week one, how soon are they willing to move off Jacoby Brissett?

Zolak: The more practices you get, and Drake Maye looks that much better, like I said, you can't fool the team. That's the problem.

Bertrand: Mike, you talk about pressure, and I think it's an important point. You don't want to put too much pressure on him. He's a kid. He's brand new to the league. He just got drafted. This is all new to him. The pressure of starting Week 1 is so much more than the pressure of competing in a training camp. I think you're right. I think they are trying to keep the pressure off him, which is why I think they're committed to not playing him in Week 1.

Reiss: So you're 100-0, no chance on Drake (to start). So not to sit on the fence, I'm going to give my numbers. I'm going to say 80-20. I think it's Jacoby 80 percent, like I lean toward you, but I do give 20 percent of the pie that there is a chance that if Drake does it. I might be influenced a little bit by seeing Mac (Jones) couple years ago in that joint practice. If you have a day like that, Zo, it starts to tilt in our numbers game.

Bertrand: Let me ask you this because I think what you're describing is interesting. You go back to the Mac Jones, and we all remember that practice when Mac Jones lit it up. We're like, 'That's it. You've got to go with this kid.' That was partially because Cam Newton had been so bad the year before and was so bad in periods in that camp. Jacoby Brissett, to me at this stage to compare where he is now to where Cam Newton was at the end of his career. He's more competent at taking the easy stuff. Taking what's in front of you. Not throwing a ball five yards wide of the intended target. I mean, he's in better physical condition right now than I think Cam was with his arm and his elbow issues at the end of his career. So I think we had that fresh in our mind. This is at least a professional, a guy who can do the basics.

Zolak: You gave him eight million bucks. You convinced him to come here and have an opportunity to sort of revive his career and jump-start it and have another opportunity at starting because I think he's earned that. Cam was just sitting out there at the end of June when they picked him up, like just sitting on the street. Bill (Belichick) gave him a million bucks. We don't know what the deal was there, but I'm with (Reiss) more on the 80-20 part of it, but Jacoby would have to go out and fall on his face every day. Like have bad picks every day. And then Drake would have to stack together the 14-16 days, and that's where the turnover would happen.

Reiss: And one thing to build off Beetle's point is, I think in addition the coaching staff's background with Jacoby. I feel like Alex Van Pelt, the [offensive coordinator], is invested in him from having had him in 2022 with the Browns. I think they would feel like it has to be decisive. That's why I'm 80-20 to Jacoby being the starter. Not 100-0 because I do leave open the possibility that if the light comes on for Drake, and it happens fast, and it's so obvious to the players, you owe it to the other players on the team to give yourself the best chance to win, if that's Drake Maye and decisively shows that in camp. 

As training camp approaches, there’s always a lot of talk about ‘surprise cuts.’ Which players on the Patriots roster are fans expecting to make the team, but might not? 

However, today we’re going to look at this from a different point of view. Which players are currently under the radar, but could end up in the conversations for roster spots by the time training camp comes to a close?

It’s not unheard of for players to make this kind of push during camp. The most notable for the Patriots in recent history came in 2019. Fullback Jakob Johnson was originally signed as an International Pathway Program (IPP) player, meaning the Patriots could have just left him on the practice squad without him counting against the roster. However he showed enough for the Patriots to remove his IPP designation when placing him on the practice squad, keeping him eligible to play during the 2019 season. That happened a few weeks later after an injury to starting fullback James Develin. 

(Click here to subscribe to Patriots Audio on 98.5 The Sports Hub.)

Other players who either made the initial roster, or were signed to the practice squad only to be elevated early in the season include running back J.J. Taylor (2020), safety Joshuah Bledsoe (2022), specialist Brenden Schooler (2022), and cornerback/specialist Ameer Speed (2023). 

With a new coaching staff and front office in place this year, there’s more of a chance than usual for these kinds of players to emerge during camp. Who will make a surprise run at the Patriots roster? Here are some names to watch this summer.

Keep in mind, this isn’t to say all six of these players will make the team (that would be more than a surprise). But one or two could make their way onto the initial roster or be early practice squad elevations if things go their way over the next month and a half.

The Patriots have a lot to figure out at guard, especially with Cole Strage expected to miss the start of the season due to injury. Sidy Sow will likely get one of the two spots, but pending Mike Onwenu moving back inside the other is up for grabs.

Veteran Nick Leverett and fourth-round pick Layden Robinson most of the reps this spring, but Jordan worked in the rotation as well along with 2023 fifth-round pick Atonio Mafi. What Jordan has going for him is experience. He’s only 26, but his 29 career NFL starts (and 55 games played) are among the most of the Patriots’ current guard group. If the team wants more experience up front, he could angle his way into a backup spot with a solid summer.

After signing late in April, Wilcox was another player that got a good amount of attention in the spring. He didn’t have a ton of balls thrown his way, but the four-year NFL vet was on the field a good amount.

After Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper, there isn’t really any clarity on the Patriots’ third tight end spot - if they keep one at all. Seventh-round pick Jaheim Bell is an interesting project player but he is more of a gadget Swiss Army Knife-type than a true tight end. Plus at 6-foot-4, 250 pounds Wilcox brings a blocking element the other tight ends don’t.

If the Patriots want to have a blocking tight end on the roster - which would make sense for a team that projects to be run-heavy - Wilcox is the best fit for that role currently on the team. Of course, he could do that initially through practice squad elevations, and be added to the roster later.

The battle for the final few cornerback spots is going to be a close one in training camp this year. Coming out of the spring there was plenty of talk about more well-known players like Marco Wilson, Shaun Wade, Isaiah Bolden, and rookie Marcells Dial competing for the reserve roles behind Christian Gonzalez, Jonathan Jones, Marcus Jones, and Alex Austin.

Hearn also belongs in that conversation. After spending most of last season on the Patriots’ practice squad as a UDFA, Hearn is back and showed noticeable improvement this spring. Helping his case is the fact he has experience not just on the boundary at 6-foot-1, 204 pounds, but also in the slot and a little bit at safety as well. He’s got as much competition ahead of him at his position as any player on this list, but he certainly made the most of the opportunities he got this spring.

Most of the Patriots’ top edge rushers didn’t take part in spring practices, opening the door for players further down the projected depth chart to get more opportunities. One of the players who appeared to make the most of those chances was Ximines, a late free agent signing who played in 48 games with nine starts for the New York Giants over his first five NFL seasons.

While the Patriots’ top-end stand-up pass rushers are set in Matthew Judon, Joshua Uche, and Anfernee Jennings, there aren’t any clear-cut backups right now - especially if Keion White continues to play as a defensive end rather than stand-up linebacker. Ximines will have a chance this summer to prove he’s worth a roster spot to provide that depth. He’s also a likely special teams contributor, having played regularly in the kicking game while in New York.

This will be McMillan’s fourth season with the Patriots, but in two of the first three he was on IR before final roster cuts. Last year he suffered a partially-torn Achilles tendon in late May. Still, the Patriots liked him enough to sign him to a contract extension just a few months later, re-upping him for 2024.

Now healthy once again, does McMillan have a place on this year’s team? The team lost Mack Wilson in free agency, after he played a valuable role as a sideline-to-sideline passing-down middle linebacker. McMillan has the athleticism to play a similar role - assuming he’s fully healthy. He also has plenty of special teams experience.

Free agent signing Sione Takitaki figures to play a similar role, and probably has the edge on McMillan. But given McMillan’s special teams potential, with a strong showing this summer as a depth option he could work his way onto the roster.

Reagor finished last year on the Patriots’ active roster, so maybe he’s not the biggest ‘surprise’ on this list. Still, some may not realize just how realistic his path to a roster spot is.

Assuming health, the Patriots are going to have four roster locks at the wide receiver position in Kendrick Bourne (assuming he’s healthy for the start of the season, which sounded like the plan at the end of the spring), Pop Douglas, and rookies Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker. K.J. Osborn is a near-lock as well.

Now down to the sixth wide receiver spot, any player hoping to make a run at the roster from here is going to have to contribute in other ways. That’s where Reagor has a significant advantage. Not only does he profile as an effective kick returner, but he’s taken some reps at gunner as well. None of the other wide receivers competing for this spot (mainly JuJu Smith-Schuster and Tyquan Thornton) have near the special teams experience or upside Reagor has.

Whether or not the Patriots keep a sixth receiver will be the real question, and goes back to the idea of ‘at-large roster spots.’ If they do though, Reagor has a great chance to be the guy.