The Patriots are out of excuses to lose so many close games
The Patriots have lost a lot of games in the post-Tom Brady era. Even worse, a lot of them were winnable.
From 2020-24, the Patriots had the seventh-worst record in the NFL in one-score games, at 17-25 (.405) – just behind the Jaguars, Panthers, Broncos, Bears, Cardinals, and Jets. Their post-Brady decline on offense has been especially pronounced in those late, clutch situations where Brady delivered so often in his 20 seasons. Including a rookie-year Drake Maye, his successors have come up woefully short in that department.
Since Brady’s departure, on drives in late, close, gotta-have-it situations – defined as fourth quarter, five minutes or less, trailing by a touchdown or less – the Patriots have the league’s second-worst scoring rate at 25% and the eighth-worst touchdown rate at 18.8%. They also have the 10th-highest turnover rate, at 21.9%. Their quarterbacks in that span (Cam Newton, Jarrett Stidham, Mac Jones, Bailey Zappe, Jacoby Brissett, Maye) have combined for a 61.1 passer rating in those spots, including six touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
Maye is entrenched as the starting quarterback for his second season, so he’s going to need to show improvement in his late-game performance when they get tight. But armed with more a more experienced head coach and offensive coordinator, Maye and the offense enter 2025 with promise that they’ll be better prepared to execute in those situations. Vrabel’s Titans had the ninth-best record in one-score games in his tenure, at 30-23 (.566).
Further, the Patriots’ pass-catchers haven’t delivered late in close games either. In the post-Brady era, when the Pats are trailing with under four minutes to go, their leading receiver is Kendrick Bourne, with 14 catches on 23 targets (60.9%) and two touchdowns in 53 such situations. DeMario Douglas has been their “next-best” option, with 10 catches on 24 targets (41.7%) and no touchdowns.
That’s where free-agent addition Stefon Diggs comes in. In his time with the Bills and Texans, he has combined to score more touchdowns (3) with almost as many catches (21) as Bourne and Douglas combined. He can be credited with helping elevate Josh Allen to the elite level he’s reached in recent seasons, and he’s got one of the most thrilling clutch moments in history on his resume.
Add this all up, and the Patriots have their best opportunity of the post-Brady era to come through at the end of close games. They have their most talented quarterback since Brady, their best head coach since Bill Belichick (not that it was hard), and their best No. 1 receiver since at least Julian Edelman – assuming he’s healthy. Not to mention, McDaniels is their best offensive coordinator since … McDaniels.
The only big question that remains is how they will protect Maye, with left tackle still the team’s biggest need. It’s possible that, if the Patriots still can’t close the deal in the clutch sometimes, it’s because the elite edge rushers made the play before they could.
Other than maybe left tackle, the excuse-making is over. The Patriots should be ready to turn some of these close losses into wins. It’s as close as they’ve been since No. 12 walked out the door.
Matt Dolloff is a writer and digital content producer for 98.5 The Sports Hub. Read all of his articles here.
