Patriots prospect watch: End of the College Football regular season

Catching up with the top projected Patriots targets in the 2025 NFL Draft after the end of the college football regular season.

The 2024 College Football regular season is officially in the books. While the conference championships and College Football Playoff still remain, for many prospects the book is now closed on the biggest part of the pre-draft process – actually playing the games. With the end of the season, some who aren’t getting postseason action have already started declaring for the 2025 NFL Draft.

It’s been about two months since our last prospect check-in. Since then not much has changed in terms of the Patriots’ draft outlook, but new needs have emerged for the team and the players themselves have played significantly more football. 

With four games left to go in their own season, the Patriots are currently slated to pick fourth in the upcoming NFL Draft. At this point it’s hard to see them falling beyond the top 10, so we have a pretty good idea of which prospects will be in play with their first-round pick. 

Given that, let’s take a look at where some of the top prospects sit as their season comes to a close, or who has the most room to move in the CFP? We’ll have plenty of time to get into Days 2 and 3 in the coming months, but for now let’s go position-by-position through the top of the board – starting with arguably the Patriots’ biggest need…

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• Left tackles

  

  Scott Kinser-Imagn Images

  Sep 14, 2024; Columbia, South Carolina, USA; LSU Tigers offensive tackle Will Campbell (66) warms up before a game against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Williams-Brice Stadium. Credit: Scott Kinser-Imagn Images

  14 weeks later and it’s still the same two names on top of the board at this position – LSU left tackle Will Campbell, and Texas left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. Both had their rough patches this season but ultimately did what they needed to do to remain in the top 10 discussion.

  Campbell seems to be in line for a third consecutive All-SEC season. While the sack he allowed in the season finale went viral on social media, it’s worth noting it’s the first and only one he allowed all year. Not only that, it’s just the third of his career in 1,593 pass blocking snaps. He allowed one in his first game, one in his last game, and just one in between (which also came in his freshman year). He allowed just 14 pressures in 557 snaps this year – the fewest among blockers with at least 500 such snaps.

  Beyond that one sack, Campbell did have his battles against some of the top pass rushers in the nation – particularly against Texas A&M and South Carolina, but he won more than he lost. If there is a major on-field concern with Campbell from 2024 it’s penalties – he was flagged a career-high nine times.

  The other question about Campbell will be his arm length. NFL teams generally use a benchmark of 33-inch arms for tackles – players with shorter arms play guard. Some expect Campbell to come in under that number when he measures in at the Combine in late February.

  If he’s well under, he’ll be a guard. But if it’s close, teams will have to weigh the traditional viewpoint against the talent he brings to the position. That benchmark has been reset before – Rashawn Slater measured in with exactly 33-inch arms three years ago. Could Campbell reset it again?

  As for Banks, he allowed just six pressures on 418 pass blocking snaps – tied with Josh Conerly Jr. of Oregon (a projected second-round pick) for the fewest by a player with at least 400 such snaps. Mykel Williams of Georgia – a projected first round pick – was the only rusher to give him significant trouble.

  Unlike Campbell, Banks still has a chance to change his draft stock with Texas playing in the SEC Championship and College Football Playoff. He’s currently dealing with an ankle injury he suffered last week, so that’s something to keep in mind.

  The final tackle Patriots fans should know is Aireontae Ersery, who is projected later in the first round and a potential trade down/double-dip candidate. At 6-foot-6, 330 pounds Ersery has a rare combination of size and athleticism, but is still very raw technically. He had a solid showing against Penn State’s Abdul Carter which highlights his upside, but the consistency isn’t there…yet.

• Wide receivers

  

  Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

  Oct 19, 2024; Tucson, Arizona, USA; Arizona Wildcats wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan (4) against the Colorado Buffalos at Arizona Stadium. Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

  Just like at tackle, it’s still pretty much the same names at the top of the wide receiver board as it was when we last checked in. The consensus top player outright at the position (make sure you read this all the way to the end) is still Tetairoa ‘Tet’ McMillan from Arizona.

  McMillan showed some incredibly high highs this year. From putting up 304 yards in the season opener against New Mexico, to a 10-catch, 202 yard performance against West Virginia and a nine-catch, 115-yard performance against a TCU team that allowed just 192.7 passing yards per game for the season. McMillan finished the year with 84 catches for 1,316 yards and eight touchdowns.

  However, McMillan’s numbers don’t reflect the hot-and-cold nature of his game. 50.4 percent of his receiving yards this year came in just three games – against a 5-7 New Mexico team and two of the three worst pass defenses in the Big 12 in Texas Tech and West Virginia. Half of his touchdowns came in the season opener.

  McMillan didn’t totally disappear in those other games. He had at least 68 yards in all but three of his games this year. Without much talent around him on the Arizona offense, opposing defenses were able to key in on him. It’ll be up to teams to see through that for their ultimate evaluation.

  Simply put though, when he’s on, he’s on. McMillan is built like a 50/50 ball receiver at 6-foot-5, 212 pounds. And yes, he can go up and get it thanks to his outstanding body control. But he’s as much if not more of a threat underneath, using his size to create natural separation and then pull away from defenders with the ball in his hands and ability to make tacklers miss.

  Along with McMillan, Luther Burden III from Missouri was the other top projected receiver. A five-star recruit coming out of high school who was first-team All-SEC in 2023, Burden had a ton of momentum coming into this season.

  Unfortunately, that momentum didn’t fully translate into results. Quarterback Brady Cook didn’t take the step forward he was expected to (he more so took a step back) and the entire offense was impacted. Burden finished the year with just 61 catches and 676 yards in six games, nearly halving his production from last year in just one fewer game.

  Still, the talent is apparent on tape. He has the skills to be a plus ‘Z’ and/or slot receiver in the NFL between his reliable hands, and ability to separate from defenders before and after the catch.

  Burden’s draft evaluation will be a case of how much teams are willing to look at past seasons and weigh them against the most recent. He should still be a first-round pick, but the question is how far will he fall?

  One player who had a similar pre-draft outlook was Jordan Addison (although he is stylistically a different player than Burden). Addison broke out with Pitt in 2021, then transferred to USC the next year. His production was still good, but not to the level of the previous season. Projected at one point to be a top-10 pick, he ended up going 23rd to the Minnesota Vikings.

• Defensive front

  

  Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

  Nov 30, 2024; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; (Editors Notes: Caption Correction) Penn State Nittany Lions defensive end Abdul Carter (11) pressures Maryland Terrapins quarterback MJ Morris (7) during the first quarter at Beaver Stadium. Photo Credit: Matthew O’Haren-Imagn Images

  Given the way the Patriots’ defense has regressed over the course of this season, defense looks like a much bigger need now than it did last time we took a look at the prospects. Specifically the front, which has struggled to stop the run or generate any sort of pass rush.

  If the Patriots want to focus mainly on the pass rush, the top target would likely be Abdul Carter out of Penn State. Carter has cleared players like James Pearce Jr. from Tennessee and Mykel Williams from Georgia – other projected top 15 picks – as the apparent top pass rusher in this class.

  A 6-foot-3, 252-pound outside linebacker, Carter had a slower start to the season but turned on the jets midway through. He had 24 pressures and six sacks over the final five games of the season including matchups against Ohio State, Washington, and Minnesota.

  Overall Carter recorded 45 pressures and 10 sacks in 12 games, and his 21.2% pass rush win rate ranked third in the country among qualifying Power Four rushers behind only Pearce and Michigan’s Josaiah Stewart. He also led the Big Ten with 19.5 tackles for a loss. He’ll have a chance to build on those numbers with Penn State in the Big Ten Championship Game and bound for the College Football Playoff.

  On the other hand, the best outright player up front might be Michigan defensive lineman Mason Graham. At 6-foot-3, 318 pounds Graham is a true three-down defensive lineman who can play both end and tackle. He can disrupt both the run game and pass game by breaking down the offensive line, and his violent style can free things up for players around him.

  The Patriots could pair Graham with Christian Barmore to create a dominant duo inside. At the same time, if that’s something they want to pursue but don’t want to use a top-five pick on a non-premium position they could trade down and target Deone Walker from Kentucky, a similar player projected to go later in the first round.

• Cornerback(s)

  

  Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

  Sep 14, 2024; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines defensive back Will Johnson (2) pursues a play on defense against the Arkansas State Red Wolves at Michigan Stadium. Photo Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

  The only outright cornerback (again, be sure to read to the end) at the top of the draft is Will Johnson from Michigan. It’s been a weird year for Johnson. He came into the season projected as the top defensive player in the class and potential first overall pick. However he only played in six games this year while battling a foot injury, and in those six games allowed just one fewer catch (16) than he did as a full-time starter in 12 games last season (17).

  At 6-foot-2, 202 pounds Johnson has the build and instincts to be a high-level shutdown cornerback in the NFL. Physicality will be his biggest question at the next level, but there’s also an ‘out of sight, out of mind’ element where if he’s not on the field for pre-draft workouts after missing so many games, he could slip.

  If the Patriots are confident in their evaluation of him though, Johnson’s upside is tremendous. Putting him opposite Christian Gonzalez would give the team a chance at having potentially the best boundary cornerback duo in the NFL.

  At this point there’s only one other consensus first-round outright cornerback – Shavon Revel from East Carolina. He comes with his own question marks – he played just one year as a primary starter at ECU in 2022 before tearing his ACL three games into this season. He’s a high-level project, but he is a project. Revel is a projected mid-first-round pick.

• Travis Hunter

  

  Andrew Wevers/Getty Images

  BOULDER, COLORADO – NOVEMBER 29: Travis Hunter #12 of the Colorado Buffaloes celebrates a touchdown during the third quarter against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Folsom Field on November 29, 2024 in Boulder, Colorado. (Photo by Andrew Wevers/Getty Images)

  We’ve been dancing around mentioning the best player in the draft for almost 2,000 words now, so it’s about time we get to him. In the spirit of ‘saving the best for last’ it’s time to talk about Travis Hunter.

  Hunter has somehow exceeded the sky-high expectations that were set for him coming into this season. The Heisman favorite has been the best cornerback in college football while also showing first-round wide receiver ability.

  As a cornerback Hunter can go back and forth between simply taking a receiver out of a game, to being more of a ‘ball-hawk’ and baiting quarterbacks into making bad decisions. His ratio of having four interceptions and seven pass breakups to just 38 targets in 399 coverage snaps is rare.

  The quick-twitch athleticism and skills at the catch point that allow Hunter to be such a dominant cornerback also shows up at receiver. Few cornerbacks can stick with him at the top of the route, and even when he can’t get separation he excels in contested catch situations. That’s before getting to his ability to create after the catch, which is a plus as well. He projects as a Z/Slot in the NFL.

  Still, Hunter does come with questions. The main one being, what position is he going to play in the NFL? Being a full-time two-way player at the pro level brings significant challenges. Splitting time between meetings and film study is a big one – many top cornerbacks in the NFL grind film to look for any advantage they can find on opposing receivers. Can Hunter do that while still spending enough time with the offense to get on the same page as the quarterback?

  Durability is also an issue. At 6-foot-1, 185 pounds Hunter has had trouble staying on the field in college, and the hits are only going to get bigger and more physical.

  Assuming Hunter at least focuses – if not dedicates himself – to one side of the ball, which side will it be? Will he decide, or his new coaching staff? That’s something that would need to be figured out before the draft. Whatever team drafts Hunter needs to have a plan for him before he steps in the building – taking him and simply saying “we’ll see how it goes” seems like a setup for disappointment if not disaster. That’s true for any draft pick, but especially applies here.

  Ultimately none of this may matter for the Patriots – Hunter seems on a fast track to be the top overall pick, and they still have a few teams ahead of them in the draft order. If they do have a chance to draft him he’d be incredibly hard to pass up on, but the coaching staff does need to be prepared for the challenge that will come with the immense talent Hunter brings.