Even with a league-high 74 games in the books, there’s an awful lot of uncertainty when it comes to the Bruins.
One thing that felt like a certainty, however, was the Black and Gold’s second pairing of Brandon Carlo and Hampus Lindholm. That was until Wednesday in Tampa, anyway, as Bruins head coach Jim Montgomery decided to split the duo up in the midst of what’s been a sluggish stretch for each ahead of a 3-1 loss to the Bolts at Amalie Arena.
And, again, while the case could be made that this move was a long time coming given their recent results as well as the overall strain that’s come with their deployment, it was also a shock and shake-up to what’s been the norm for this Bruins squad.
Entering Wednesday night, just 29 NHL pairings had played more five-on-five time together than the Lindholm-Carlo pairing and their 645:40 of time together this season. The Lindholm-Carlo pairing was also the most-deployed Boston defensive pairing, too, with a 70-minute edge on the second-most deployed Boston pairing (Matt Grzelcyk and Charlie McAvoy).
Among a group of 53 pairings with at least 500 five-on-five minutes together this season, Lindholm-Carlo ranked last in offensive-zone start percentage (12.97%), and last in offensive-zone faceoff percentage (22.72 percent). And despite that defense-first deployment, the pairing thrived from a results standpoint, with an on-ice save percentage of .938 (eighth-best among that group of 53), while their 28-21 goal differential gave them a goals-for percentage of 57.14 percent, which ranked 19th among that group of 53.
This was a pairing that Montgomery leaned on more than any other to this point.
But there was also no denying that the cracks were beginning to form.
Really since Lindholm returned to action on Mar. 9, this was a pairing that had been victimized more than the Bruins would prefer.
In almost 109 five-on-five minutes together since then, the Lindholm-Carlo pairing had been outscored 9-4, outshot 66-43, and out-chanced 60-40 (per NaturalStatTrick). Their (somehow increased) defensive-zone usage played a significant hand in that — they had a sub-10 percent offensive-zone faceoff percentage — but their struggles were no longer being masked by absurd goaltending either, with an on-ice save percentage of .864. This was a true bottoming out, really. Their goals-for percentage of 30.77 percent was the fourth-worst among 33 pairings with at least 100 five-on-five minutes. Their shots-for percentage was second-worst among that group, and that aforementioned on-ice save percentage was also second-worst among that group of 33 pairings.
Tuesday exposed their flaws further, too, with the Lindholm-Carlo pairing out there for two of Florida’s three goals, and with the Bruins outshot by a 12-2 mark with this pairing out at even-strength play.
It was officially enough for Montgomery and the Bruins.
So, Wednesday came with a notable change, with Lindholm to the left of Andrew Peeke on Boston’s second pairing, while Carlo was demoted to the right of Parker Wotherspoon to make up the Black and Gold’s third pairing.
How’d that go?
Speaking after the loss, Montgomery admitted that he didn’t have any real hard opinions on the changes just yet (such is often the case in the immediate aftermath of a game), but he did note that he felt that the breakouts could’ve been better from the defense as a whole (he didn’t cite any specific pairings when making that point).
In an obviously microscopic sample size, the Lindholm-Peeke pairing seems to be off to a decent start from a raw metric standpoint, as the Bruins held a 12-6 advantage in shots on goal with this pairing out there despite a mostly defensive deployment. With that pairing not on the ice at five-on-five, the Bruins, as a team, were outshot by a 22-7 mark.
Lindholm and Peeke also came through with three blocks each.
Mar 16, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Bruins left wing Danton Heinen (43) is congratulated by defenseman Andrew Peeke (52) after scoring a goal during the third period against the Philadelphia Flyers at TD Garden. (Bob DeChiara/USA TODAY Sports)
The thinking here with Lindholm and Peeke is easy to see. They’re both bigger bodies, but Peeke is similar to Carlo in the sense that the Bruins want him to use his size, range, and reach to shut down opportunities. But playing with a player with a slightly lower ceiling than Carlo, the onus is on Lindholm to make some offensive plays and push the pace the other way.
Getting Lindholm’s confidence back at the offensive end is an absolute must for the Bruins, too.
It’s also not out of the realm of possibility, either. From Dec. 31 to the injury Lindholm sustained in a Feb. 19 head-to-head with the Stars, Lindholm ranked 19th among all NHL defensemen in points, with 12 in 22 games. His plus-17 rating over that span, meanwhile, was third-best among NHL defenders, trailing only McAvoy’s plus-21 and the plus-18 from Florida’s Gustav Forsling.
If the Bruins can tap back into that version of Lindholm, and give the Bruins a balance featuring McAvoy, Lindholm, and Carlo all on different pairings and ‘driving’ their own pairing in the process, they’ll be a significantly more dangerous threat next month.
Here are some other thoughts, takeaways, and notes following a B’s loss to the Lightning…
Should Heinen be ‘7th Player’ favorite?
Mar 27, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Boston Bruins left wing Danton Heinen (43) is congratulated after he scored a goal against the Tampa Bay Lightning during the first period at Amalie Arena. (Kim Klement Neitzel/USA TODAY Sports)
If you ask me, not enough has been made about the boost that Danton Heinen has given the Bruins this season.
Danton Heinen scores the equalizer for the Bruins.
— Conor Ryan (@ConorRyan_93) March 28, 2024
1-1 game. pic.twitter.com/wP6N6nkDRqA camp invite, and willing to hang around without a contract until the end of October, the versatile Heinen has given the Bruins everything they could’ve dreamed out of a league-minimum contract worth $775,000, with 15 goals and 30 points through 66 appearances this season.
Since making his season debut on Oct. 30, Heinen has as many goals as players such as Alex DeBrincat and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and more goals than players such as Tyler Bertuzzi, Teuvo Teravainen, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Elias Lindholm, and Johnny Gaudreau. https://t.co/eKfiDhGzjU
— Ty Anderson (@_TyAnderson) March 28, 2024And if we break down Heinen’s production on a cost-per-point level, Heinen has cost the Bruins $25,833 per point, which is the fifth-most affordable figure among players with standard (meaning contracts that are not entry-level deals) in all of hockey this season. Talk about one hell of a bargain, and for a team that absolutely needed a bargain.
It should be enough for Heinen to earn the nod as this year’s Seventh Player Award winner.
Pastrnak continues on-his-back efforts
Mar 27, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Victor Hedman (77) defends Boston Bruins right wing David Pastrnak (88) during the second period at Amalie Arena. (Kim Klement Neitzel/USA TODAY Sports)
Whether it’s because of the contract, his top-of-the-world skillset, or his production, there tends to be a hyperfocus on the play of the Bruins’ David Pastrnak. But if you’ve been watching these last two games, there is absolutely no denying that these have been Pastrnak’s most complete performances of the season.
We already talked about what Pastrnak did in Tuesday’s win over the Panthers. It was a fantastic showing where Pastrnak was on the ice for all four of the B’s goals, and even created two of their goals with strong, physical plays before coming through with key defensive-zone plays to seal the deal on the victory. And on Wednesday, Pastrnak provided more of the same, as it was his forecheck that led to Boston’s only goal of the evening while he also came through with a first-period backcheck that denied the Lightning’s Nikita Kucherov of what would’ve been a tremendous scoring chance.
Pastrnak has clearly taken his leadership game to another level this season (he admits he feels more able to speak to the locker room now that some of the other veteran leaders have retired or left), and these performances were definite follow-my-lead types of efforts. It was also telling that Pastrnak was downright furious when the Bruins were unable to capitalize on their late-period power-play opportunity in the second period of Wednesday’s loss.
He has absolutely taken Jim Montgomery’s recent callout to heart, and is trying to put this team on his back.
Everything else
Feb 24, 2024; Vancouver, British Columbia, CAN; Boston Bruins forward James van Riemsdyk (21) awaits the start of play against the Vancouver Canucks during the second period at Rogers Arena. (Anne-Marie Sorvin/USA TODAY Sports)
– Bruins winger James van Riemsdyk may very well be playing himself out of the B’s playoff lineup. In his last two outings, van Riemsdyk has taken two penalties. One of them came with the Bruins already on the power play, while the other came in the attacking zone. Both are penalties you simply can’t take. The 34-year-old van Riemsdyk was also on the ice for Tampa Bay’s first goal, and didn’t really have what you’d consider a monster effort to deny the goal. At the same time, it’s worth mentioning that van Riemsdyk is still getting through a sickness, and it’s entirely possible that it’s one that’s wiped him out (like the one that got Trent Frederic in 2021) and that he’s truly starting from scratch.
– One of the biggest changes that came with the switch from Bruce Cassidy to Jim Montgomery was the Bruins’ pivot to being more of a ‘quality over quantity’ team when it came to their offensive-zone play. The Bruins will typically seek out that extra pass or two that gives them a completely open cage. But sometimes they’re a bit too selective, and Wednesday felt like one of those nights for the Bruins. With the team on the second leg of a back-to-back, the Bruins needed to play more a simplistic game to give themselves an early start and more of a prayer as the game dragged on. A perfect example of this was the Charlie Coyle non-shot that featured Coyle trying to dish it back to the slot and through traffic for what would’ve been an even prettier tic-tac-toe chance and goal for the club.
Charlie Coyle wyd??? pic.twitter.com/3VMmH651ET
— Michael Hurley (@michaelFhurley) March 28, 2024For what it’s worth, I do think this team is built for more ‘throw it on and create chaos’ kind of looks than the quality over quantity approach that paid off for them last year. They have more guys who’ll make their living around the front of the net than say finishing a sweet, one-time feed. But independent of those philosophies, that puck has to get on goal here.
– This Tampa team is surging at the right time, and I gotta say, I’m not sure that the Bruins should want a piece of them in round one, be it with Tampa moving into the No. 3 spot in the Atlantic or as the East’s top wild card. I think their final 40 minutes of hockey was a perfect example of that makes them dangerous in a seven-game series. It’s not about their offense anymore, but rather their ability to strangle the life out of the opposition in the defensive zone and Andrei Vasilevskiy’s ability to step up and downright deny the opponent any cheapies.
