What History Tells Us About First-Year NFL Coaches
Written by Joseph Medeiros
The Patriots are currently 2-6 on the season and in position to get a top draft pick in this year’s draft. There have been growing pains for the first-year Head Coach Jerod Mayo, who faced immense pressure after a deflating 32-16 loss to the Jaguars in London.
Mayo said the team was “playing soft” in the week leading up to their matchup against the Jets, which seems to have worked as the players rallied for a late win against the Jets 25-22. When looking back at other first-year head coaches, Mayo needs at least four wins this season.
The Past
There have been many coaches, both experienced and inexperienced, who have had poor seasons in the NFL. From 2000 to 2023 there have been 40 veteran head coaches who won three or fewer games in a season. Of those 40, 30 of them were fired (75%).
Considering that Jerod Mayo is a first-year coach, and they are given more leeway, it is also important to look at the first-year head coaches of that time. There were 12 first-year head coaches hired during that time who won 3 or fewer games in their first start, in which only 3 (25%) were fired after their first season.
Fired Rookies
The 3 rookie Head Coaches that were fired were:
Cam Cameron: Miami Dolphins 2007, 1-15
Steve Wilks: Arizona Cardinals 2018, 3-13
Urban Meyer: Jacksonville Jaguars 2021, 2-11
The Ones that Stayed
It is almost a certainty that coach Jerod Mayo will get a second year with the Patriots, considering the reputation he has with Robert Kraft and the team that he inherited.
The remaining nine first-year head coaches who were not fired after their first year had a combined 44.83% win rate in their second season, with only one being fired. Only three of those nine coaches had a winning record in their second season:
Raheem Morris: Tampa Bay 2009, 10-6
Leslie Frazer: Minnesota Vikings 2009, 10-6
Dan Campbell: Detroit Lions 2022, 9-8
The third season of the first-year head coach’s tenure is where we see a troubling trend, with the nine rookie head coaches’ average winning percentage dropping to 35.83%.
The only coaches to have a winning record in their third season were Zac Taylor (10-7), Dan Campbell (12-5), and Matt Eberflus (4-3). Those three were also the only three coaches to retain their jobs with the other five first-year head coaches being fired after their third season. The average tenure for coaches in this category is 2.75 years.
Why Mayo needs Four wins
It is always important to look at the outliers when using data, and Dan Campbell may very well be the outlier, which is why Mayo must win 4 games in his opening campaign.
There are a total of 30 coaches that won 4 to 6 games in their first campaign. Notable coaches are Gary Kubiak in 2006 (6-10), Jack Del Rio in 2003 (5-11), Lovie Smith in 2004 (5-11), Ron Rivera in 2011 (6-10), and Kyle Shannahan in 2017 (6-10).
This group of coaches saw their win rate increase from an average of 31.39% in their first year to 42.52% in their second year, with only 4 coaches being fired after their first season.
In the third season of their tenure, we see continuous improvement with an average win rate of 50.86%, with 6 coaches leaving after their second season.
The average tenure of the coaches in this group was 3.8 years. This group of coaches also has 4 Super Bowl appearances with Kyle Shannahan having 2, and coaches Ron Rivera and Lovie Smith each having 1.
In Conclusion
When looking at the situation coach Jerod Mayo finds himself in, a realistic win total for the Patriots is 4 wins. Coaches that find themselves in this position in their first season stay with their team for about 4 years which should be long enough to see what kind of coach Jerod Mayo is.
If Jerod Mayo established himself as a coach like Ron Rivera was for the Panthers, a coach with multiple playoff runs and even a Super Bowl appearance, it would be a successful coaching tenure. It is not every day that you see a young coach like Mike Tomlin step in for Bill Cowher and continue the culture of dominance.
Other Content Written by Me:
Worst 1-Year Boston Head Coaches: Ranked
Payton Pritchard’s Case for 6th Man of the Year
Should The Revs Move On From Porter?
Minutemen Coach talks New Season and Joe Mazzulla
The Belichick Sweepstakes: Who Does Bill Coach Next Season?
