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Patriots Mailbag: What can we learn after the bye week?

• David Jacobs on X (formerly Twitter): "How much can we actually learn from the rookies, Cole Strange and Alex Austin in these last 4 games? / X"

  How much can we actually learn from the rookies, Cole Strange and Alex Austin in these last 4 games?

  Overall, these final four games should be valuable for the purpose of evaluation for the Patriots. Three of the games are against teams in playoff position heading into Week 14, while the Arizona Cardinals are the first team out of a Wild Card spot (and a game out of the division lead) in the NFC.

  However, the players can only prove what they can or can’t do if they’re on the field. For a player like Alex Austin, yesterday was encouraging. He played a significant role on defense for the first time this season, and should have earned more playing time down the stretch.

  Jerod Mayo has said he expects Cole Strange to play at some point this year, and the team will have to activate him before the next game. The question is, where will he play? Does the team bump Ben Brown, who has had a few solid weeks, from center? Or does the coaching staff put left guard Layden Robinson back on the bench despite clearly wanting to get a closer look at him?

  Elsewhere on the offensive line, it would be great to get more of a look at Caedan Wallace, who has been out since Week 4 with an ankle injury. He hasn’t returned to practice yet, so time is running out for him.

  Meanwhile, rookie wide receivers Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker continue to play limited roles. Having gotten a somewhat extended look at Polk earlier this year the Patriots may feel they have more of an understanding of what’s going on with him. As for Baker, while it would be great to see more of him he seems on track to need to prove himself next spring and summer.

• Ed Helinski 🇺🇸🇵🇱 on X (formerly Twitter): "What percentage of the roster or number of current players should be turned over for next year? Are we talking more or less than 50 percent? / X"

  What percentage of the roster or number of current players should be turned over for next year? Are we talking more or less than 50 percent?

  At the end of last season the Patriots had 71 players under contract between the 53-man roster and IR. Of hose 71, 31 of them (43 percent) were on the active roster for Week 1 of this year. A few more began this year either on IR, PUP, the practice squad, etc.

  The big difference this year is the Patriots only have 11 pending unrestricted free agents. Other players will end up getting cut when it’s time to trim the roster down too, but there’s less built in turnover. By the time we get to Week 1 of 2025 I’d expect the rate of turnover to be about the same as last year, around 40 percent.

• Will Malone on X (formerly Twitter): "What are your thoughts of the offensive playing a little safe? Even when ahead it doesn't feel like they are playing to win, just not to lose? Eg. The last 3 and out... / X"

  What are your thoughts of the offensive playing a little safe? Even when ahead it doesn't feel like they are playing to win, just not to lose? Eg. The last 3 and out...

  I’d say that’s a safe assessment of the offense at this point. In key situations – both in terms of time on the clock and/or where the ball is on the field – it does feel like they’ve leaned on the run game a disproportionate amount. That includes that three-and-out (their only one of the game) after the Christian Gonzalez interception that could have been a dagger of a possession.

  Some of the conservative play calling has felt like it’s a result of Alex Van Pelt managing the personnel – especially the offensive line. Assuming Van Pelt is back next year, it will be interesting to see if that changes with better players on the field.

• Maverick on X (formerly Twitter): "Say Doball is fired then hired by the Pats as OC, what are the chances AVP stays on as QB coach? / X"

  Say Doball is fired then hired by the Pats as OC, what are the chances AVP stays on as QB coach?

  Low, for two reasons. For one, Brian Daboll should be able to do better than an offensive coordinator job on the open market. If anything, I could see it being Van Pelt staying in his current role and Daboll hired in some role above him as a sort of senior assistant (offensive or overall). It’s also incredibly rare to see in-house demotions in the NFL.

• blor2 on X (formerly Twitter): "Is Emmanuel Forbes worth taking a 5 game flyer on ? Would this be better than using a 3rd or 4th round pick on one ?Thanks. / X"

  Is Emmanuel Forbes worth taking a 5 game flyer on ? Would this be better than using a 3rd or 4th round pick on one ?Thanks.

  A little background first. Emmanuel Forbes was a first-round pick by the Washington Commanders in 2023. They took him one spot ahead of Christian Gonzalez. Forbes struggled in his first year-and-a-half in the NFL, and was waived over the weekend.

  That brings us to the Patriots. Should the team take a flyer on him? It couldn’t hurt. They need boundary cornerback depth, and he is a higher-upside option to others available, even if he was over drafted in the first round. We had Forbes as a top-40 selection leading up the draft in 2023.

  Stylistically, Forbes is more of a ‘ball-hawk’ than shutdown corner. Rather than simply run with receivers and take them out of the game, he tries to lure quarterbacks into bad decisions. That style worked well for him at Mississippi State where he had six interceptions and 10 pass breakups his final year, but it didn’t play as well at the NFL level.

  The Patriots have had success developing ball-hawking cornerbacks in the past – J.C. Jackson a comp for Forbes coming out of college. Trying to have similar success with Forbes could make sense, but it’s also possible they saw enough of him in Washington to realize he’s just not an NFL cornerback.

• Jalen💫 on X (formerly Twitter): "Positionally what direction would you want the patriots to go in the first 3 rounds? / X"

  Positionally what direction would you want the patriots to go in the first 3 rounds?

  Right now, the ‘Big Three’ Patriots needs for this offseason are shaping up to be (in any order) offensive tackle, wide receiver, and pass rusher. While they certainly could address all three in the draft, they’d have more flexibility if they can add at one or two of those positions through free agency or a trade.

  That’s especially true at wide receiver, where they’ve struggled to develop players for a while. If there is one position where a high-profile veteran addition makes the most sense it’s at receiver (ex. Tee Higgins, D.K. Metcalf).

  Assuming they got that taken care of, cornerback would move up as the new third in the ‘Big Three’ needs. That could end up meaning a defensive-heavy draft.

• Notsohappyagain on X (formerly Twitter): "Hi, Alex. After 13 weeks of college football, How many tackles worth of a 1st round pick do you have on your list? / X"

  Hi, Alex. After 13 weeks of college football, How many tackles worth of a 1st round pick do you have on your list?

  Overall, I’m currently looking at five tackles as legitimate first-round picks – Will Campbell and Emery Jones of LSU, Kelvin Banks and Cameron Williams of Texas, and Aireontae Ersery of Minnesota. However, of those five only three (Campbell, Banks, Ersery) are true left tackles.