Zolak & Bertrand: Reacting to the James Paxton trade
On Friday’s edition of Zolak & Bertrand, the crew reacted to the live news of the Red Sox trading for James Paxton after he was DFA’d from the Dodgers.
What can Andrew Bailey do for him?
Marc Bertrand:
James Paxton coming back to the Red Sox from the Dodgers, where he got deignted for assignment. He’s 8-2, he’s got an ERA of about 4.5 or 4.6, I just had it in front of me.
Scott Zolak:
Is that breaking news sounder?
Well, yes, it is because it’s thethe Red Sox making a deal acquiring something they need, which is starting pitching. Lefty in the rotation now. Adds depth to their rotation. I was just looking up the DFA rules. I thought it was a 10-day window on DFA stuff. It’s seven days, so if you get DFA, the team has seven days to either put you on waivers or trade you. The Dodgers have elected to trade him to the Red Sox. No idea what they gave up, but it can’t be much. Can’t be a lot. So we’re waiting to find out. But Milliken, what’s your reaction? I mean, I think it’s a good thing. I just think it’s, you know, it’s not exactly making a big splash, but it’s something you need. It’s better than not making this move.
Tyler Milliken:
So, when you kind of look at why he was DFA’d, the reason they did it was they were a week out from the trade deadline. This allowed them to create room with Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw coming back. They needed the room on their 40-man roster to make it happen. The Dodgers knew somebody was going to come calling for him. The thing with James Paxton this year is that while the ERA is 4.40, the FIP is close to 5.00 and it’s because he’s lost his fastball. It’s down a full 2 mph this year compared to a year ago and his K/9 is down more than 3. But the big thing about him was against the Red Sox, while it was a really solid start, he threw his hardest fastball of the season at 96.1 mph. That’s hoping Andrew Bailey can keep clicking into that and that he’s finally, you know, closer to fully healthy than he was at the start of the season.
Listen to the full segment!
Milliken: 8 potential trade deadline targets for the Red Sox
1. Justin Turner – DH/1B/3B
Jul 10, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA; Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Justin Turner (2) scores a run during the sixth inning against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports
Over the winter, Justin Turner held out hope that he’d get to return to the Red Sox, but it was clear there wasn’t room for him once the front office wasn’t able to move Masataka Yoshida’s contract. Now, it seems like a reunion could make a lot of sense for both sides. He could fill a role similar to what Steve Pearce did for the 2018 Red Sox as a platoon option against left-handed starters at first base until Triston Casas returns, and then form a platoon with Yoshida at DH.
It’s been a rough year for Turner overall, who seems to finally be showing some signs of regression at age 39. He’s rocking a 94 OPS+ that would be tied for his worst mark since 2011, which was before he became one of the most consistent hitters in the entire sport. Still, he’s continued to handle lefties without an issue, rocking a slash line of .295/.353/.459/.812 with a 130 wRC+ over 61 at-bats in 2024.
Dating back to June 1st, Turner has been better overall despite not showing much power with a .243/.364/.318/.682 line and a 105 wRC+. He’s only hit 1 homer over that stretch and 5 total for the season, which is quite the drop off from last season’s total of 23. Adding his leadership to a very inexperienced team would have its benefits, but it’s fair to question whether he has enough in the tank to offer a legitimate upgrade down the stretch.
Turner won’t cost much due to his performance and the fact that he’s a rental. He also won’t be hard to absorb from a financial standpoint since he’s making $13 MM. Feels like the Red Sox could acquire him plus a starter from the Blue Jays and get all their shopping done with one swing.
2. Yusei Kikuchi – Toronto Blue Jays – SP
Jul 20, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Yusei Kikuchi (16) reacts to walking Detroit Tigers first base Mark Canha (21) during the sixth inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports
Since we’re talking about a potential package deal with Turner, Yusei Kikuchi fits as a perfect pairing to what the Red Sox need. He’d offer a different look from the left-side and has put together a solid season with a 4.54 ERA/3.59 FIP across 20 starts. His combo of 77th percentile fastball velocity and 91st percentile extension would seemingly fit right in with what this pitching infrastructure seems to target.
Kikuchi is also a rental, so the prospect return shouldn’t be anything that makes you flinch. Not to mention, his money ($10 MM AAV) shouldn’t be anything close to an issue either since the front office has $12.75 MM before hitting the first luxury tax threshold. This is the type of move that shouldn’t bring any significant complications moving forward.
Another bonus of what Kikuchi brings to the table is that he racked up 167 innings last season. That means Alex Cora will be able to lean on him late in the year with the expectation he’ll still be productive. I think that needs to be a major consideration for the Red Sox front office at the deadline because Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford will need to be protected down the stretch.
3. Chris Bassitt – Toronto Blue Jays – SP
Jun 29, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Chris Bassitt (40) against the New York Yankees at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports
Just like the Turner and Kikuchi package, there is one that exists with Chris Bassitt, but it would cost a lot more. That’s because Bassitt is the rare workhorse that reached the 200 inning benchmark in 2023 and was at 181.2 IP in 2022 and 157.1 IP in 2021. He provides really solid #3 numbers as well with a 3.71 ERA/3.87 FIP in 20 starts this season and a 3.43 ERA/3.89 FIP in 860 innings going back to 2019.
There’s a real financial component to this equation since Bassitt is making $22 MM in 2024 and 2025. Some may recall a few weeks back that the Blue Jays weren’t interested in moving anyone that wasn’t a rental, but like many of their leaks over the last few months, that has changed with Jon Morosi’s report a few days back. The return will all depend on how much money the Blue Jays choose to eat, which will be something to watch since they’re only roughly $10-15 MM above the first luxury tax threshold.
If you’re talking about helping save your bullpen and certain members of the rotation, Bassitt is simply the best fit. Right now, the Red Sox bullpen is 10th in innings pitched with the starting rotation coming in at 20. I don’t have a ton of confidence the front office will make this type of investment, but it’s possible without going over the first luxury tax and it would send a MASSIVE message to that clubhouse and Alex Cora that you believe in them.
4. Erick Fedde – Chicago White Sox – SP
Jun 26, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Erick Fedde (20) delivers a pitch against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the first inning at Guaranteed Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
Erick Fedde is another mid-rotation arm that fits what the Red Sox will need as they make a push for the playoffs. He’s one of the most obvious trade targets at the deadline with the White Sox making it clear to everyone they’re about to illuminate things with a firesale. In his first season since returning from the KBO, he’s been nothing short of nails with a 2.99 ERA/3.59 FIP over 19 starts and 111.1 IP.
Fedde’s stuff doesn’t jump off the page, but he keeps the ball on the ground with a 46.2% GB% due to his sinker. He also doesn’t walk guys with a measly 2.4 BB/9 and avoids barrels at an above-average clip of 7%. That type of profile is built to eat innings, which he should have no problem doing after accumulating 180 innings in 2023.
One of the positives about Fedde is that he’s only making $7.5 MM in 2024 and 2025, which is a bargain for the type of production he’s providing right now. From a financial standpoint that is right up the Red Sox alley, but it’s going to hurt more in terms of prospect capital. Teams will be swarming him at the deadline just like Kikuchi.
5. Andy Ibanez – Detroit Tigers – 1B/LF/2B
May 7, 2024; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Detroit Tigers second baseman Andy Ibanez (77) celebrates his solo home run in the first inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
When Breslow was first hired by the Red Sox, he labeled versatility as a trait he valued heavily when constructing a roster. Ibanez features just that as he’s already appeared at 5 different positions this season while also being an above-average bat (116 wRC+) with a .288/.329/.439/.768 slash line. By no means do I expect him to be a thumper, but he could offer this team depth at both first base and second base with dependable defense.
Ibanez isn’t a free agent until 2029, so he comes with a bunch of team-control. That will likely impact the price a bit, but the Tigers aren’t getting a haul for a utility player that is in the midst of his age-31 season. It’d be intriguing to see what the Tigers are asking for if they package him and Jack Flaherty together in a deal.
6. Jack Flaherty – Detroit Tigers – SP
Detroit Tigers pitcher Jack Flaherty (9) throws against Cleveland Guardians during the fifth inning at Comerica Park in Detroit on Thursday, July 11, 2024.
Speaking of Flaherty, if the Red Sox simply want to pay the price of a rental for an arm with big stuff, this would be my pick. He’s been nothing short of excellent in 2024 after regaining control of his stuff, which is evident by his 3.13 ERA/3.18 FIP. At the moment, he’s on pace to set career-best marks with a 11.4 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, and 33.4% Whiff%.
Problem is, he’s the best pure rental on the trade market right now and his $14 MM AAV is more than manageable. There’s likely going to be a bidding war between clubs like the Yankees, Dodgers, and Braves that are enamored with his ability to miss bats and limit traffic. He feels built to thrive in a big market now that he’s regained the dominant form we saw earlier in his career.
The Red Sox did get a nice look at him at the end of May when he nearly tossed a no-hitter against them. While there might be some reservations about how he’ll perform in the AL East after being a disaster for the Orioles down the stretch last year, he should be in good hands with Andrew Bailey. Injury concerns are fair considering the righty’s past, but after tossing 141.1 IP in 2023, this feels like a risk you can’t blame Breslow for taking.
7. Nate Eovaldi – Texas Rangers – SP
HOUSTON, TEXAS – OCTOBER 16: Nathan Eovaldi #17 of the Texas Rangers celebrates an out against the Houston Astros to end the fifth inning in Game Two of the American League Championship Series at Minute Maid Park on October 16, 2023 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
If you’re looking for a move that will send shocks through Boston, the return of Nate Eovaldi might just do that. Hell, that seems like the kind of move that might make Alex Cora rethink some things about his future. Currently, the Rangers are still in the gray area when it comes to their deadline plans, especially since they’re starting to get healthy, but Chris Young’s recent comments left the door open to potentially selling if they keep losing like they did last night.
Even after Eovaldi’s blow up last night, he’s still put together a very respectable season with a 3.36 ERA/3.92 FIP in 17 starts. He missed some time in May with a groin strain, but he hasn’t lost any velocity off his arsenal, with his stuff all ticking up across the board this season. That’s helped lead to his Chase% sitting at a rather elite 33.2% with a strong GB% of 49.1%.
Given Eovaldi’s postseason resume, 3.05 ERA in 79.2 IP, he’s exactly the type of arm teams will be hoping to inject into a World Series contender. But what makes things murky for Eovaldi is his looming option for 2025 ($20 MM), which will be activated if he hits 300 total innings between the prior two seasons (243 IP currently). That option for next season will also kick in if he finds a way to finish in the Top 7 for Cy Young voting.
It’s going to be interesting to see how teams navigate that potential team-control in talks, especially since 2025 will be Eovaldi’s age-35 season. The Cardinals have already been reported as a team that is expected to show interest in him if he’s available. For 2024, Eovaldi’s AAV currently sits at $16 MM, which isn’t cheap but the Rangers will likely eat that money to ensure they get the best prospect return possible.
8. Mark Canha – Detroit Tigers – LF/1B
Jul 19, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Detroit Tigers designated hitter Mark Canha (21) gets congratulated after his two run home run against the Toronto Blue Jays during the fourth inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
There aren’t many clear sellers on the market right now, so I’m circling back to another member of the Tigers in Mark Canha. While his versatility in the outfield might not offer much for the Red Sox, his ability to play first base should allow him to play a similar role as the one described for Turner earlier. It’s been a down year for him with a slash line of .229/.336/.352/.688 and 7 homers in 85 games, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him reinvigorated in a more hitter friendly environment.
Despite the recent dropoff with Canha’s bat, he’s still mauling lefties without a problem. Across 63 at-bats against southpaws, he’s been a different guy while mashing to the tune of .286/.403/.476/.879 for a 145 wRC+. There’s no point in him sticking with Detroit at this point since he’ll be a free agent at the end of the year, so if the Red Sox don’t want Ibanez, maybe they opt for the Flaherty-Canha package instead.
Just to make things clear, Canha is making $11.5 MM in 2024, so there’s no reason the Red Sox couldn’t pull off a deal like this, even if they took all of his money on plus Flaherty’s.
