Zolak & Bertrand: Is the Ceddanne Rafaela extension good business?
On Tuesday’s edition of Zolak & Bertrand, Matt McCarthy and Joe Murray discussed their outlooks on whether the Ceddanne Rafaela extension was good business.
Is this fair to Rafaela?
Joe Murray: 8-year deal, 50 million. How is this fair to him? What I mean by that is $6.5 million a year? 6.5 million in 5 years is not going to be a lot of money.
Matt McCarthy: Guaranteed money up front. It makes sense. It makes sense for him.
Joe Murray: I like that they’re spending, by the way, that’s not what I mean. For him, $6.5 million in a couple of years? That’s nothing. It’s chump change in baseball.
Matt McCarthy: He’s not going to see $6.5 million in total for another four years at this point. He took the money right away. Listen, if he turns into a star player when he hits arbitration, he’s going to make more than $6.5 million. But the attitude is this is going to even out. I’m going to take the security now. He’s still young. He’ll hit free agency eventually and he’s got $50 million in the bank. I understand why a player like him would take that money, particularly given a player like him who we don’t know if he can hit. So if he can’t hit, he might never make more than $6.5 million in a season. Even $7 million, or $8 million when he’s a veteran player. So take the money up front. It makes sense for him. And I love that the Red Sox did this. Sure, is there some risk involved? Yeah. We don’t know if Rafaela can hit at the big league level, but it’s $50 million bucks over the course of eight years. That’s nothing for the Red Sox. This is exactly what they should be doing. It’s what they did not do under Chaim Bloom. This is exactly what you want to see. Good job by Craig Breslow. Good job by the Red Sox on this one.
Mar 30, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; Boston Red Sox center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela (43) catches a line drive against the Seattle Mariners during the fourth inning at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Listen to the full segment!
Milliken: 5 thoughts on where the Red Sox go without Trevor Story
1. Should Ceddanne Rafaela get time at shortstop?
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – MARCH 30: Ceddanne Rafaela #43 of the Boston Red Sox reacts to scoring during the tenth inning against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on March 30, 2024 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Alika Jenner/Getty Images)
Rafaela was the first name that came to mind Friday night as the shock of Story’s injury settled in. I was heavily against using Rafaela regularly in the infield throughout the spring, especially after some crowds pushed for him to fill Vaughn Grissom’s role at second base, because of how special he is in center field. But when looking at a platoon of Reyes and Hamilton at shortstop, I don’t have much faith in either being able to hold things down for months at a time.
Hamilton claims his defense wasn’t impacted by his thumb injury, which is a bit concerning, since he posted -2 Outs Above Average in 89.2 innings at shortstop last year. It’s not like Reyes looked smooth at the position on Saturday either, with a few balls hit to him that should’ve been turned into outs but weren’t. While Rafaela might not be a Gold Glove winner at shortstop one day, he offers a higher floor and ceiling defensively than either of those options.
Going this route fixes the current logjam in the outfield with Wilyer Abreu and gives the infield at least one above-average defender. The outfield defense will be taking a hit without Rafaela, but there’s no doubt it’s still improved from last season with Abreu, Duran, and O’Neill holding things down. It feels crucial to have a dependable option at shortstop after seeing the impact Kike Hernandez had last year.
In terms of lineup construction as well, it’s hard to argue against Abreu’s potential at the plate. Even with a rough spring and start to the season, it heavily outweighs what Hamilton and Reyes could offer you. Especially if Abreu looks anything like the guy who hit .316/.388/.474/.862 with a 132 OPS+ down the stretch.
The only thing Abreu can’t help with is the loss of another right-handed bat. Romy Gonzalez could maybe offer some help in that department after starting the season on fire in AAA (233 wRC+), but Cora wanted Hamilton since he makes more sense as a platoon option with Reyes. There isn’t an easy solution to any of these problems, but if I were the Red Sox, I wouldn’t shut down the idea of Rafaela getting some time at shortstop even in a limited capacity.
2. Tyler O’Neill is your best hope for an impact right-handed bat.
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – MARCH 31: Enmanuel Valdez #47 of the Boston Red Sox shakes hands with Tyler O’Neill #17 after hitting a three-run home run during the fourth inning at T-Mobile Park on March 31, 2024 in Seattle, Washington. The Boston Red Sox won 5-1. (Photo by Alika Jenner/Getty Images)
First things first, O’Neill has been nothing short of incredible in his first 8 games with the Red Sox. He’s batting .360/.500/.840/1.340 with 4 homers for a 267 wRC+ and has easily been their best right-handed bat. If you don’t include Story, the only other right-handed hitters on the team are Connor Wong, Bobby Dalbec, and Pablo Reyes, who are all the definition of fringy bottom of the lineup bats.
For now, you need to do whatever it takes to keep O’Neill safe. He’s been left to anchor an extremely lefty heavy group that is still weeks away from reinforcements. Rob Refsnyder and Vaughn Grissom should both help a bit in this department, but neither have started a rehab assignment yet.
It’s hard not to hold your breath when thinking about O’Neill because of his injury history and the calf issues he dealt with during spring training. This is where you really miss the consistency that came with a bat like Justin Turner, who was so easy to plug into the middle of the lineup on a nightly basis. Turner has been on a tear since landing with Toronto, posting a .936 OPS and 173 wRC+ in 9 games.
Just another point to add to the Rafaela conversation as well, is that Refsnyder offers a platoon partner for Abreu once he returns. It’s not ideal to lean on Refsnyder as anything close to an impact bat, but he’s known as a lefty killer for a reason. Last year, Refsnyder posted a 133 wRC+ against lefties and was even better in 2022 with a ridiculous 177 mark.
3. Is Vaughn Grissom an option at shortstop?
Feb 20, 2024; Lee County, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox shortstop Vaughn Grissom (5) poses for a photo during media day at JetBlue Park. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
Mom, pick me up. I’m scared. Grissom has been floated as a potential option at shortstop for the Red Sox because of his history at the position, but this seems like a path to having the worst infield defense in baseball.
In just 158 innings at shortstop last year, Grissom was nothing short of atrocious with -7 Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average. Add in Enmanuel Valdez as Grissom’s double play partner most days and Rafael Devers at third base and the pitching staff might revolt. This is simply setting nobody up to succeed, so I don’t think it should be considered.
Not to mention, there will be a lot of pressure on Grissom’s bat to succeed, so asking him to change positions again and carry that type of defensive workload is no joke. No disrespect to Andy Fox, who is filling the shoes of Carlos Febles as the team’s infield instructor in 2024, but if Ron Washington couldn’t make him serviceable at shortstop, who can? Defense needs to be a priority if this pitching staff is going to go anywhere because simply they don’t have the stuff to get by on strikeouts alone.
On the bright side, Cora mentioned Friday that Refsnyder told him Grissom has been “dominating rookie ball pitchers” during live batting practice. No shocker there, considering Grissom put on a clinic at AAA last season with a .330/.419/.501/.920 slash line in 102 games. That also included a club record 36 doubles for the Gwinnett Stripers, so he has a chance to help a Red Sox lineup that has been rather mediocre to start the year with the 17th-best wRC+ in baseball at 93.
4. Could Marcelo Mayer be rushed? Also, is outside help an option?
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – JULY 08: Marcelo Mayer #10 of the Boston Red Sox fields a ground ball during the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game at T-Mobile Park on July 08, 2023 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
First off, there’s zero chance Trevor Story’s injury will impact the timeline Marcelo Mayer is on. Not only is Mayer just not ready for that level of competition, but the front office made it clear they’re taking things slow with him when he didn’t get an invite to big league spring training. That’s the right course of action considering he hasn’t found his footing yet at AA and has work to do at the plate.
I will say, it was refreshing to hear Mayer say he’s feeling the strongest he ever has going into this season. In a perfect world, he goes nuts this year and is kicking the door down to Boston in September. But for now, the most important thing is for his development to continue without any disruptions.
In terms of outside help, the Red Sox aren’t going to make any major additions with the outlook of this season. It’s clear 2024 is about the young guys on the Red Sox taking a step forward and solidifying themselves as part of the core moving forward. Best-case scenario feels like a small move for Paul DeJong from the White Sox.
DeJong would simply cover the Red Sox in terms of some right-handed pop and strong defense. He’s batting only .176 for the White Sox in 6 games, but has already smoked 2 homers. You only have to go back to his first 81 games with the Cardinals before the trade deadline last year to see his value, where he hit .233/.297/.410/.701 with 13 homers and a 91 OPS+.
It was a tough go of things for DeJong after being flipped to the Blue Jays, as his bat failed to ever get going and he got DFA’d. Still, he landed with the Giants because of his value on defense. That wasn’t a surprise since he ranked in the 94th percentile for Outs Above Average, which is elite.
In terms of money, DeJong doesn’t come with a much price tag since he signed a 1-year deal worth $1.75 MM in November. Obviously, the White Sox aren’t interested in competing and are looking for upside anywhere, so maybe there is a deal to be made. It’d be nice if the Red Sox could maintain elite defense at shortstop and center field while letting DeJong take advantage of the Green Monster.
Originally, I had former Marlins top prospect Jacob Amaya on this list but he was traded to the Astros last night. Next up, I’ll go with Elvis Andrus who was recently released by the Diamondbacks. Yes, he’s 35, but last year he still finished in the 90th percentile for Outs Above Average.
Defense is my priority here. That’s probably clear since Andrus only hit .251/.304/.358/.662 with 6 homers for a 81 wRC+ as a member of the White Sox in 2023. Still, he brings leadership to a young group and was a better than league-average hitter in 2022 (105 wRC+).
This team at the bare minimum needs someone who is going make sure necessary outs are recorded like Yu Chang did a year ago. DeJong resembles a poor man’s version of Story in a lot of ways. Andrus is boring, but his glove hasn’t slipped, even with his speed continuing to trend down.
5. We have no clue what Trevor Story’s timetable is.
ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA – APRIL 05: Trevor Story #10 of the Boston Red Sox reacts after being injured going after a ball hit by Mike Trout #27 of the Los Angeles Angels in the fourth inning during opening day of a Major League Baseball game at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on April 5, 2024 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images)
I understand wanting to formulate a timetable for Story, but his absence will be decided by whether there’s ligament and/or labrum damage. Just last year, Miguel Bleis dealt with a shoulder subluxation that led to him getting shut down in June for the season and needing surgery to stabilize the joint. Fernando Tatis Jr. is a more popular example of someone who suffered a similar injury with a partial labrum tear in April 2021.
Tatis Jr. fought off surgery for almost two full seasons, but he suffered multiple recurrences before getting his shoulder operated on in September of 2022. Still, there’s plenty of better-case scenarios like Rockies’ starter Kyle Freeland who had his shoulder pop in and out last season and was back pitching in less than 3 weeks. Reliever Tim Mayza returned in just 16 days after his subluxation as well, so it’s hard to put an estimate on anything, but I’d be lying if I thought it would be a somewhat
Alex Speier listed Jacoby Ellsbury’s right shoulder subluxation in early April of 2012 as another example, where he returned in the middle of July. It’s hard not to overreact to Story’s down demeanor last night, but he did emphasize his hope of returning at some point this season. For his sake alone, that would be huge considering how little he’s played over the last few seasons, even if the Red Sox aren’t competitive at that point.
It would be a tough blow if Story’s recovery resembles Garrett Mitchell’s 5-month timeline from last year, but he’s locked up for at least 3 more seasons at $72 MM total. There’s still time to turn this contract around even if it doesn’t feel that way right now. The last thing the Red Sox need is a situation that resembles what happened with Tatis Jr. and the whole process gets dragged out.
Best wishes to Story as we find out more information in the coming days.
