Zolak & Bertrand: What should the Red Sox do with Marcelo Mayer?

On Wednesday's edition of Zolak & Bertrand, the guys question whether they should deal for Marcelo Mayer.

Tim McKone: 

What do you do with Marcelo Mayer? Did you ride it through Milliken? What do you think? 

Tyler Milliken: 

I do think if you're talking any of the prospects here and anyone who wants to call Marcelo Mayer a bust, I'm not saying John Tomase is doing that, but there has been some of that pushed out there that this guy is going to break down. At the end of the day, he tore up AA this year at 21 years old. He was leading the Eastern League in doubles. He hadn't even played for a month until two days ago. So, while the power isn't anything special, I don't think he's Bobby Witt Jr. or Gunnar Henderson or anything like that. I think he's closer to a Xander Bogaerts. But what stands out about a guy like Xander Bogaerts, who was never the best shortstop in baseball, was the fact that he posted constantly with that durability. For a player like him that may not have the highest ceiling of, you know, a top five player in the sport, that really sticks out to me. I think when you talk about Roman Anthony, while maybe Baseball America and MLB Pipeline don't have them as the number one guy in the system, there's a reason does Sox Prospects. At 20 years old, he's tearing up AAA right now. He looks incredible out there in his first 13 or 14 games, so I think he needs to be here no matter what. He's not available in trades. Considering Connor Wong and how bad he looks defensively, I think that should tell you all you need to know about the Red Sox catching situation moving forward. He needs to be that guy hopefully in the next 12 months. And this is where now, it's not a Big 3 anymore. It's a Big 4 with Kristian Campbell with what he's doing at AAA right now as well, tearing it up next to Roman Anthony. Unlike Mayer, who is also a lefty, Campbell's a righty. He can play second base. You still have Trevor Story under contract for multiple years here. There is an infield you could put together of Story at short, hoping he stays healthy. Campbell at second with Rafael Devers at third and Casas at first, that could be pretty special. But if you're going to talk about possibly moving a guy, yeah, I don't think you rule Mayer out. 

Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, and Kyle Teel. Around this time a year ago, the Big 3 was coming into focus as the trio collided at Double-A and established themselves as the premier talent in the Red Sox farm system. That hype has continued to build with their recent promotion to Triple-A, but another name has entered the chat after a meteoric rise in 2024, and that’s Kristian “Barry Bonds” Campbell.

Relax. I know being nicknamed Barry Bonds is absolutely insane, but that speaks to the ridiculous numbers that Campbell has put up over the last 4+ months. Not to mention, if Anthony is raving to reporters about how special of a talent you are, you’re not correcting him.

“We call him Barry Bonds. What he’s done here so far, we’re just like, it’s Barry Bonds. The video looks like it’s in fast motion, like it’s sped up with how hard he swings and with how hard he hits the ball.”

Campbell was selected in the 4th-round of the 2023 draft out of Georgia Tech and signed for exactly slot at $492,700. He featured some of the best bat-to-ball skills in college baseball with a 90% contact rate in his sophomore season, but wasn’t able to tap into much power with 4 homers in 45 games. Despite strong results in his first taste of minor league ball (.309/.441/.471/.911, 1 HR in 22 games), the Red Sox decided to rework his swing over the offseason to help him do more damage at the plate.

To Campbell’s credit, he spent almost the entire offseason incorporating these changes down in Fort Myers. It wasn’t the easiest transition either, which he made clear to Alex Speier in a recent episode of the “310 To Left” podcast. Spring training and even the early parts of the season showed him struggling with more swing-and-miss than ever before, as he tried to increase his bat speed and lift the ball more frequently.

Despite some growing pains, Campbell was able to produce as he made these adjustments, which led to a .306/.418/.558/.976 slash line with 8 homers in 40 games at High-A for a 171 wRC+. His 26.6% K% was a controversial part of his game though, which left certain scouts concerned about whether he’d have success against more advanced pitching. Still, he was showing the ability to draw plenty of walks with a 14.7% BB%, while posting elite exit velocity numbers within the system.

Once Campbell was promoted to Double-A, he somehow took his game to another level as his mechanics became more routine. He raked to the tune of .362/.463/.582/1.045 with 8 homers, 17 doubles, and 3 triples for a 194 wRC+. It led to him bringing home Eastern League Player of the Week twice and earning a promotion to Triple-A after only 56 games, which was basically half the amount of time Mayer, Anthony, and Teel spent there.

Arguably the most impressive part of Campbell’s recent stretch at Double-A was he stopped piling up strikeouts. His K% dropped to a measly 14.9% and his BB% was still strong at 13.7%. It’s rare to see a guy unlock significantly more power without any long-term drawback, but he seems to have cracked the code.

On the defensive side of things, Campbell has had his hands full as well. He was introduced to center field entering 2024, so there’s been an obvious learning-curve on that end. Most of his time has been spent between there and second base, but he’s also appeared at shortstop and third base, so his profile carries plenty of versatility.

Ultimately, the expectation is that Campbell will end up at second base or a corner outfield spot, but that’s a problem the Red Sox can figure out later. His ability to do damage from the right side of the plate makes him stand out when compared to Mayer, Anthony, and Teel. If he can keep tapping into that pull power, he could be a 20+ homer bat while playing half of his games at Fenway Park.

Campbell isn’t some slouch from an athleticism standpoint either. While he may never be an above-average defender, he has plus speed that’s allowed him to steal 20 bags in 26 attempts between both levels. That would play with how the Red Sox have been operating on the basepaths this season.

Following all the major publications updating their Top 100 prospects list at the mid-season mark, Campbell has started to get his proper due on a national scale. Baseball America has him at #98, MLB Pipeline at #79, Kiley McDaniel (ESPN) at #54, and Keith Law at #46. SoxProspects.com currently has him ranked as the #5 prospect in the system, with Braden Montgomery being the only thing separating him from Mayer, Anthony, and Teel at the top.

There have been some critiques of Campbell’s swing, which is a bit unorthodox. It’s drawn comparisons to Hunter Pence and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. from various outlets, but neither is a perfect match. The important thing is he’s continued to handle velocity well, which was a concern when he was drafted and again with his new mechanics at the plate.

It was fascinating to see some scouts in the Eastern League recently tell Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe that they believed Campbell was the best prospect in the system. To be fair, Campbell’s slash line at Double-A outperformed the trio, but he’s also older than both Mayer and Anthony. Teel is only a couple of months older than Campbell, but he plays a premium position with Campbell’s defensive home up in the air.

Just going down the list, it seems like every corner of the baseball world is acknowledging Campbell as one of the more intriguing talents in the minors. Prospect evaluators in the media, scouts in front offices, and even his own teammates can’t help but rave about his ability. That should make it clear to everyone that the Big 3 has been put to rest and it’s officially the Fantastic Four.

It’s rare to have so many impact position players on the verge of starting their big league career, but it only points to how bright of a future the Red Sox have right now, even if things have started to crumble during the playoff push. Considering how fast Campbell has moved through the minors, it can’t be ruled out that he’ll beat Mayer, Anthony, and Teel to the majors. Either way, no matter how the timeline plays out, it’s refreshing to see a major prospect breakout for the Red Sox farm system in back to back years.

With Campbell in the mix, there’s no reason why the Red Sox shouldn’t have one of the most talented young cores in the sport for the rest of this decade. If that doesn’t come to fruition, he could serve as a key piece in a deal that brings over an ace or a middle of the order bat from the right side. I’ll leave that up to Craig Breslow, who’s going to have a lot of tough decisions to make this winter as he tries to construct the next World Series contender in Boston.