Make no mistake, the Red Sox offseason has officially begun. And the Red Sox are already telling us a good deal about their intentions.
In fact, truth be told, the 2025 Red Sox season has actually begun, though not on the field. As someone once told me, Opening Day has always been a misnomer. Next season always begin on the day after the World Series, when free agency filing begins and teams are clustered at the starting line. In many ways, this is when the real work gets done.
Think about it: last winter, the Los Angeles Dodgers acquired Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow et al. They were favored to win the World Series and they won it decisively. The biggest moves in sports can happen anytime, but they usually happen when there are no games actually being played. Summer is for playing. Winter is for building.
So what does this mean for the Red Sox? Excellent question. Fan confidence in the franchise is at lowest ever for this current ownership group, lowest overall since the early 1990s. And yet, things can always change. A year after Tom Werner foolishly spat out the words “full throttle,” the Red Sox went 81-81 and continued to mingle with the groundlings at C-level. Now, with a cluster of heralded prospects all but at the doorstep of Fenway Park, president Sam Kennedy and chief baseball officer Craig Breslow are the ones telling us some variation of “The time is now,” which feels more credible than Werner’s windbaggery.
I, like you, want to believe Kennedy and Breslow. I truly like the former (and you would, too), don’t really know the latter. But we all know that sports come down to one thing and one thing only – winning – and the Red Sox haven’t done much of it in the last six years, when they’ve gone a collective 437-433 while spinning their wheels like Vincent LaGuardia Gambini in the Alabama mud.
At Fenway Park, starting in 2019, they’ve been operating as if the whole store has the flu.
So here’s another question. Even if the Red Sox do believe what they are saying … can they execute it? Are they willing? Does winning mean what it used to during the push-pull dynamic between Larry Lucchino and Theo Epstein? As we are remembering during the 20-year retrospectives on the 2003-04 Red Sox, the franchise was on a mission then. They stopped at nothing. They were far more interested in taking on the Yankees than being like the Tampa Bay Rays, when Epstein took to heart the advice his father gave him: be bold.
But now? Well, the Red Sox operate cautiously. They’re far more interested in fiscal responsibility and corporate efficiency than they are in simply winning the most games. And if you think that’s a manipulation of the facts, consider this tweet from former Sox analyst Zack Scott during the Dodgers’ win over the Yankees during the World Series:
So what happens this offseason? Again, excellent question. For all of the Red Sox’ shortcomings over the last 5-6 years, they are not as far as away as some may think. They’ve had their share of bad luck, too. Now more than ever, the Red Sox have the resources (in both cash and prospects) to essentially make any move they please. They can pay. They can trade. Their most glaring needs are on the pitching staff and on defense, areas in which they ranked among the worst in baseball over the last six years combined.
The ugly truth: from 2019-2024, the Red Sox rank 22nd in the majors in team ERA, 20th in starters’ ERA 24th in bullpen ERA. (Only nine teams have blown more saves.) Defensively, the Red Sox have committed more errors than any team in the sport – think of that – and ranked 24th in defensive runs above average. In those areas, the Sox are not C-level. They are D-ficient.
As has been the case for some time, they can change this – if they really want to.
Based on some decent developments, here are somethings to consider:
The pitching market is developing
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – JULY 29: Nick Pivetta #37 of the Boston Red Sox reacts after a home run was hit by Cal Raleigh (not seen) of the Seattle Mariners during the sixth inning at Fenway Park on July 29, 2024 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Brian Fluharty/Getty Images)
On Monday, in the first surprise of the offseason, the Red Sox extended a qualifying offer to right-hander Nick Pivetta, whose Red Sox career has been largely medicore: a 37-41 record and 4.29 ERA. Per nine innings, Pivetta has average 10.2 strikeouts, 3.3 walks and 1.5 home runs. At times, he has been dominant. Without question, he has been durable. So here’s the question: did the Sox essentially commit more than $21 million to Pivetta in 2025 because they believe in him – or because they want the compensatory selection that will come if he signs with another team? It all feels like a very expensive game of chicken. “He’s a guy that has performed well in this market, has all of the underlying metrics,” Breslow told Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. “He gets a ton of swing-and-miss. He doesn’t walk guys. He can get guys out pitching in the strike zone. So as you think about what a major league starting pitcher needs to be able to do to be successful, he has a lot of those ingredients.” For the moment, we’ll refrain from mocking the “underlying metrics” and the seeming need for everyone, everywhere, top be smarter than someone else. We’ve all seen Pivetta pitch for the last 4-5 years. We have a good idea of what he is. If Pivetta signs elsewhere and the Sox get an extra second-round pick that allows them to trade away a prospect for better pitching, fine. Kudos to Breslow. If Pivetta returns on a one-year contract for more than $21 million, fans should be further pissed.
(Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
Now, if Pivetta signs elsewhere and the Sox can use that money toward a free agent … well, score one for Breslow. Max Fried (above) has been talked up a lot because he’s among a select group of free-agents and is longtime friends with Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito, who recently lobbied for Fried to come to Boston. I like Fried because he’s left-handed and the Sox had just three games started last season by a true left-handed starter. (That would be James Paxton. Three others were bullpen games started by Brennan Bernardino.) Projections have the 30-yearold Fried signing, give or take, a six-year deal in the range of $160-million.
In this day and age, that hardly qualifies as a “megadeal.”
The Triston Casas trade rumors might be legit
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – AUGUST 29: Triston Casas #36 of the Boston Red Sox reacts after striking out against the Toronto Blue Jays during the fifth inning at Fenway Park on August 29, 2024 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
For starters, these are the facts. Casas missed much of the year with injury and the Red Sox – specifically Alex Cora – seemed frustrated that Casas took so long to come back. By his own admission, Casas is very process-oriented. Sox coaches has seemed frustrated by his close-mindedness and attention-seeking behavior. He is a gifted hitter. Over his first two years in the majors, among 20 first basemen with at least 1,500 innings at the position, he ranks 16th in defensive runs saved. The Red Sox have a surplus of young left-handed hitters.
Look, the Sox might be sick of Casas, who has yet to see a lens he didn’t crave. (Can you completely blame them?) Breslow has had every chance thus far to eliminate the idea of Rafael Devers moving to first base – and he’s continued to let it breathe. Breslow could easily declare that Devers is staying at third base. He hasn’t done that.
“The conversations I’ve had with Raffy to date have largely just been about checking in, making sure that he’s got everything he needs, seeing how he’s feeling,” Breslow told Speier. “Any conversation that we would have about [a position change] is going to happen internally before it goes external. At the same time, we saw progress [from Devers] on the defensive side, and it’s unclear to what extent the knees and the shoulders impacted his ability to defend at third [down the stretch]. But what we’re after is putting a winning team on the field. And we’ll have conversations as needed, as things go, but as of right now, that’s not where we are.”
Vaughn Grissom, we hardly knew ye
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – MAY 26: Vaughn Grissom #5 of the Boston Red Sox throws to first base to force out Jake Bauers #9 of the Milwaukee Brewers during the sixth inning at Fenway Park on May 26, 2024 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
A year ago, in the trade that sent Chris Sale to Atlanta, the Red Sox acquired Vaughn Grissom and Breslow told us that Grissom was a legitimate candidate for second base. Now, according to Speier’s interpretation, Grissom and David Hamilton are both “potential contributors” at second base, suggesting both are also “potential” (or probable) trade pieces. What could Grissom command? Good question. But with Kristian Campbell’s rapid ascension through the minors – “It’s really hard to ignore the success that he had,” Breslow told Speier of Campbell, who hit combined .330 with a .997 OPS, 24 homers and 24 steals at Single-A, Double-A and Triple-A in 2024 – he could immediately fill a bundle of needs for the Red Sox in one fell swoop.
Like Grissom, Campbell bats right-handed and he plays second base. He’s also cheap. Campbell projects as an “adequate” defender at multiple positions according to online scouting reports and, in the Sox’ defense, they made the Grissom trade before his ascension. Still, there has been (whisper) speculation about Grissom having a mental block when it comes to throwing (end whisper) and he’s now expendable. (If you ask me, he throws funny – and I’ve felt that since Day One.) So, too, is Hamilton. In fact, of Hamilton, Grissom and Ceddanne Rafaela, the Red Sox can probably trade away one or two of them. That may not land them a frontline starter, but it could probably get them some much-needed bullpen help.
Tyler O’Neill is not a big loss
BOSTON, MA – SEPTEMBER 11: As pitcher Keegan Akin #45 of the Baltimore Orioles walks towards the dugout, Tyler O’Neill #17 of the Boston Red Sox celebrates his game winning three-run home run during the 10th inning at Fenway Park on September 11, 2024 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo By Winslow Townson/Getty Images)
OK, so I need to choose my words carefully here. Do I think O’Neill is a complete bum? No. But he’s kind of a hack. Yes, he hit 31 home runs in 113 games this year, but he also finished with just 61 RBI (how is that mathematically possible) and batted .195 with runners in scoring position. (Ah, that’s why – he’s not exactly a tactician.) His defense is overrated. Would I be OK with it if he were batting seventh? Sure. But not at a price of more than $21 million, which is why the Red Sox didn’t make him a qualifying offer.
Remember: over the last four years, the Red Sox have used Hunter Renfroe, Adam Duval and O’Neill as a right-handed-hitting outfielder. During that time, the Sox have ranked seventh in the majors in OPS in right field. At the same time, while modern metrics have had the Sox ranked in the top 10 defensively, they have made more errors in right field than any team in baseball. Combined, over four years, Renfroe, Duval and O’Neill made $23.6 million, an average of $5.9 per season. So why in God’s name would anyone give O’Neill more than $21 million? They wouldn’t. Buh-bye.
Of course, the Sox have (ahem) Gold Glove winner (throat now cleared) and left-handed-hitting Wilyer Abreu penciled for right field, which is more than palatable. Depending on how all the roster maneuvering shakes out, Abreu could be a candidate to keep or trade. (He hit only .180 vs lefties this year and is at .183 for 160 career major league games.) We all like Abreu, but with the left-handed-hitting Roman Anthony at Triple-A and the left-handed-hitting Jarren Duran also in the outfield mix, the Sox need to balance out the lineup. Platooning someone like Abreu is always an option (hello, Rob Refsnyder, whose option the Sox just picked up) but he’s worth trading if the return is good.
