Milliken: Will Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu win Gold Gloves?

While the Red Sox infield defense played a significant part in sinking the team’s playoff aspirations in 2024, the outfield is finally getting the recognition it deserves with Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu being named Gold Glove finalists. Last season, Alex Verdugo was the only member of the organization to be named a finalist for the award, but he lost out to Adolis Garcia. It’s been half a decade since a member of the Red Sox won the award, with Mookie Betts being the last to accomplish the feat in 2019.

Duran was nominated for the award in center field along with Jake Meyers of the Astros and Daulton Varsho of the Blue Jays. Before even jumping into the numbers, I think it’s important to acknowledge how much Duran has grown to even be included in this conversation. Before the 2023 season, he was a laughing stock defensively after a series of viral misplays, but he’s completely reshaped his game out there with the help of outfield instructor Kyle Hudson.

Not to mention, Duran wasn’t even expected to spend a majority of his time in center field in 2024 with Ceddanne Rafaela making the club out of spring training. Still, Duran made the transition look seamless. Not too shabby for a guy who was originally drafted out of Long Beach State with 0 experience in the outfield.

Duran finished with the second-most Defensive Runs Saved of any outfielder with 23 total in 2024 (Varsho, 29). 17 of those came in center field, with the other 7 taking place in left field. Varsho ended up tying Duran’s total in center field, but was able to do it in almost 140 less innings (810.1 innings vs. 672 innings), while Meyers was a step below both with only 6 total.

It was a different conversation when examining Outs Above Average though, with Varsho and Meyers both coming ahead of Duran. Varsho finished in the 99th percentile after racking up 14 OAA, while Meyers was in the 97th percentile with 14. Duran was no slouch, but he totaled only 11 OAA, which placed him in the 95th percentile.

In terms of outfield assists, Duran saw some real growth in that department as well. He ranked in the 87th percentile for Arm Value and 75th percentile for Arm Strength. That led to 12 outfield assists, which ended up leading all of baseball.

This should be a great test to see how heavily defensive metrics are weighed in this process. Varsho seems to have the edge if you look at DRS and OAA, but as we’ve seen in the past, it’s not always about those numbers. Especially if you had the type of breakout that Duran went through this year, where he’s now viewed as one of the best all-round players on a national level.

Jumping over to Wilyer Abreu’s case in right field, I don’t think there’s much of a conversation to be had. He played the toughest right field in all of baseball as a rookie and replaced a Gold Glove finalist without any sort of trouble. You have to be doing something special defensively if Alex Cora is campaigning for you to win the award over the final month of the season.

Even more in Abreu’s favor is that he dominated the other finalists in almost every single defensive metric. He totaled 18 DRS, 7 OAA, and 9 total outfield assists in right field. Juan Soto and Jo Adell were the other finalists and you could combine their numbers and they’d still be overmatched.

First off, Soto getting nominated alone is hilarious. He plays one of the easiest right fields in all of baseball and is viewed as a defensive liability by anyone who watches the sport. Yet, he’s a superstar on the Yankees and is on the verge of free agency, so this should help stack his accolades before his big pay day.

Soto racked up -1 DRS and -5 OAA across 1,277.2 innings in right field this season. He also played 52 innings in left field where he put together 1 DRS. Overall, the strongest part of his defense was the number of runners he threw out, with 9 coming in right field and another one in left.

Adell has more of a case than Soto, where he pieced together 6 DRS and 1 OAA. He didn’t throw out as many runners with only 3, but his metrics were significantly better than Soto despite playing only 1,001.2 innings. Either way, neither are coming anywhere close to what Abreu was able to do.

Now, if you’re old school and want to look at errors, Abreu does lead the group with 7. Adell came in with 4 and Soto had 2. Even looking at center field, Duran had 6, Varsho had 2, and Meyers finished with 1.

Those numbers definitely are part of the equation, but I lean towards the advanced metrics like DRS and OAA because they factor in more components of fielding. For example, range is a crucial aspect of evaluating any defender, especially an outfielder, because guys that cover more ground are going to create more opportunities. Plus, DRS has errors as part of their equation already, so that should say something when someone like Abreu has the most errors and is still blowing everyone out of the water.

Overall, if Abreu doesn’t bring home a Gold Glove, there should be a riot. For Duran, the conversation is a bit tougher with Varsho seemingly having the edge in both DRS and OAA. I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t rooting for Duran though, because he still doesn’t get his proper respect on defense due to the struggles he endured earlier in his career.