Based on the most recent reports, the Red Sox seem quite serious about Juan Soto. So here’s the question: how much credit, if any, do they deserve if their pursuit of the player fails?
The answer: not much.
Is that on the harsh side? Perhaps … maybe just yes. But in the world of the big businesses that are professional sports, the preaching of both Yoda and Elizabeth Holmes also apply: Do or do not. There is no try. So are the Red Sox making a legitimate, bona fide attempt to sign Soto in what would be the richest contract (by far) in the history of the franchise? Perhaps. (More on that shortly.) But they should still be held responsible if they do not acquire him – and for reasons they could have better controlled.
In case you missed it, The Athletic reported today that the bidding for Soto has reached a critical stage. The bidding for the player has now reached its final stages, and the Red Sox remain clustered with their chief rivals in the American League and beyond. Among the notes of interest in today’s story is the following:
“The clubs publicly known to be most serious about Soto are the New York Mets, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers. The two people briefed on the negotiations said that all remaining contenders have made offers above $600 million.”
Wait.
What?
That’s right, the Red Sox are among the team who have offered Soto more than $600 million, an amount that would effectively double the $313.5 million the Red Sox recently committed to Rafael Devers, possessor of the biggest contract in team history. And that comes after the Sox just signed some bullpen help.
So, doesn’t that mean the Red Sox should get credit for bellying up to the bar? Well, yes and no.
First, as we all have come to learn, the devil is always in the details. When the Los Angeles Dodgers signed Shohei Ohtani to a whopping $700 million contract last offseason, the deal contained an absurd amount of deferred money. As a result, the present-day value of the contract actually came in at slightly more than $460 million. Even that number would walloped the $313.5 million Devers received, though it should be noted that Devers’ deal, too, contains deferred money. (And that means it isn’t really worth $313.5 million – the actual number is closer to $291 million.)
So here’s the question: are the Red Sox offering more deferred more than the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays and Dodgers? And if so, how much more? Beyond the financials, there is something else to consider if the Red Sox end up losing out on Soto the way they lost out on Yoshinabu Yamamoto and others during last offseason.
Their reputation.
In the last several years, it’s taken a hit.
Here’s the point: back in the early 2000s, when John Henry and his partners first owned and operated the Red Sox, Boston became a baseball superpower. The entire sport was put on notice that the Red Sox were back in business – to borrow a phrase from Dan Duquette when he acquired Pedro Martinez – and Boston became a baseball destination. Curt Schilling wanted to come here. So did Eric Gagne and others. The Red Sox didn’t just win negotiations because they spent money. They won because people took them seriously.
If there is any good to come out of the Soto pursuit, here it is: the Red Sox seem serious again. The questions is whether are others are now convinced. Twice this offseason – and we’re paraphrasing here – both team president Sam Kennedy and chief baseball officer Craig Breslow have alluded to the fact that “the time is now.” A real offer on Soto seems to be proof. But if the Red Sox’ brand has taken such a major hit in recent years that even money can’t convince someone to come, well, whom do we blame for that?
The answer: the Red Sox, for letting things deteriorate to the point they have.
Look, you should be happy that the Red Sox are serious again. In the same breath, remember that the Red Sox had to go 10-12 names deep before they hired Breslow as their chief baseball executive. Many others took themselves out of the running. In truth, the Red Sox wanted Breslow to be a chief executive-in-training when they approached him, which is to say they wanted him to first be the chief’s right-hand man. When no wanted wanted to be chief, they had no better option and so they hired Breslow.
Will Soto be a Red Sox? Time will tell. But in free agency, there is no prize for second place. You either do or you do not. There is no try.
Soto and the Red Sox
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – JULY 27: Juan Soto #22 of the New York Yankees hits a two-run home run against the Boston Red Sox during the first inning at Fenway Park on July 27, 2024 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Brian Fluharty/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 13: Juan Soto #22 of the New York Yankees in action against the Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium on September 13, 2024 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images)
BOSTON, MA – JUNE 16: Juan Soto #22 of the New York Yankees signs autographs for young Yankee fans before their game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on June 16, 2024 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo By Winslow Townson/Getty Images)
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – JUNE 15: Third base coach Luis Rojas #67 of the New York Yankees, left, celebrates with Juan Soto #22 of the New York Yankees after Soto hits a one-run home run during the seventh inning of a game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on June 15, 2024 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Jaiden Tripi/Getty Images)
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – AUGUST 30: Juan Soto #42 of the Washington Nationals talks with a scoreboard attendant working inside the Green Monster during the seventh inning of the game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on August 30, 2020 in Boston, Massachusetts. All players are wearing #42 in honor of Jackie Robinson Day. The day honoring Jackie Robinson, traditionally held on April 15, was rescheduled due to the COVID-19 pandemic. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – JUNE 14: Juan Soto #22 of the New York Yankees reacts on second base after hitting a double during the first inning of a game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on June 14, 2024 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Jaiden Tripi/Getty Images)
