So the Red Sox have improved their pitching – or at least tried to – and that is good. But the acquisition of Garrett Crochet comes with good and bad, and only time will tell whether the Red Sox won the trade, lost it or – far more likely – fell somewhere in between.
So, for all the understandable comparisons to the Chris Sale deal back in 2016, let’s make something clear: at the moment, this is really nothing like it.
Back then, of course, was amidst a run of consecutive years as top-five finisher in the American League Cy Young voting, which is to say he was established. There was no real uncertainty about his place as an elite starter. Between 2012-16, Sale went 70-47 with a 3.04 ERA and 1,133 strikeouts, numbers that made him quite comparable to Jon Lester (70-50, 3.36, 967K). But aesthetically, Sale and Lester couldn’t have been more different: The twiggy, 6-foot-6 Sale whipped the ball to the plate with a slingshot delivery while the meaty, 6-foot-4 Lester was a prototype.
Today, Crochet feels like the exact opposite. Physically, he’s built far more like Lester, 6-foot-6 and 245 pounds. But stylistically? Well, his arm lags behind his body (like Sale) and he throws across his body. Most importantly, he doesn’t have anything close to Sale’s track record and comes with a history of physical problems.
Now, in first discussing this trade yesterday, let me make an admission: I was going largely on memory. And when I looked at colleague Matt McCarthy’s face a couple of times, I saw some curious looks. So I went back and did a little more research this morning and now I understand why. McCarthy – along with Tyler Milliken and many of the relatively few, young fans who truly love baseball – has a better understanding of many young players than I do. For your sake – and for the game’s – that’s a good thing.
Before we get into the particulars, let me say this: I’m glad the Red Sox are trying to improve their pitching. But Crochet, in particular, comes with no guarantees. There are things about him I like and things that I don’t. The same is true of most every player I’ve ever watched, read or heard about, including Kyle Teel and Braden Montgomery, the two first-round picks the Red Sox sent to Chicago for Crochet.
In the end, here’s how I feel: was Crochet worth the risk? Sure. If the Red Sox land another proven starter to go with him – say, George Kirby (by trade) or Corbin Burnes (via agency) – I’ll like the deal a lot better. If they don’t, the ultimate verdict of Crochet-for-Teel and Montgomery could go either way.
Now some of the particulars:
Crochet’s delivery and mechanics
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – JUNE 07: Starting pitcher Garrett Crochet #45 of the Chicago White Sox throws in the first inning against the Boston Red Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field on June 07, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)
Look, I’m not pitching expert or, to borrow a term from Craig Breslow, biomechanist. But something about the above photo does look right. Crochet’s arm is dragging behind his body and the angle looks off. That said, lots of pitchers have had screwy deliveries and had good careers. Sale was one of them. Injuries often get them all, which is why the Red Sox are so reluctant to invest big pitching dollars into starting pitchers. Crochet is projected to earn somewhere around $3 million this year. Sale, at the time, was also cheap, though that all increases the price in terms of prospects.
Is Crochet’s delivery a disaster? No. But he throws across his body and, at times, appears to muscle the ball. In some ways, he’s a little raw. But the power of his fastball is real and he walked just two batters per nine innings in 2024. That’s good. Earlier in his career, in the minors, his walk totals were more than double that. Am I worried about him breaking down? Yes. He doesn’t have what I would call a pitcher’s body. He feels a little too bulky. That said, there aren’t many guys out there like Lester, who possessed excellent size but wasn’t musclebound. All of this is on the list of things to watch with Crochet as he embarks on his Red Sox career.
If the Red Sox can find another pitcher to put behind or alongside Crochet, it will help mitigate some of the risk. A rotation core of, say, Crochet, Tanner Houck and Kirby/Byrnes would look pretty good. If two of those guys stay healthy, you should be in the playoffs or better. If all three stay healthy … well, let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
The cost of Kyle Teel and Braden Montgomery
Kyle Teel chases a popup. (Courtesy: USA Today.)
I’ve said this a million times over the years and I’ll say it a million more: I believe in the advantage of a good offensive catcher. Can you win without one? Sure. But having one gives you a major leg up on the competition. During the time that I’ve covered baseball, baseball has been littered with teams that won multiple championships (or made multiple runs at titles) with a catcher who could at least hold his own in the lineup. Jorge Posada (Yankees), Jason Varitek (Red Sox), Pudge Rodriguez (Tigers, Marlins and Rangers), Yadier Molina (Cardinals) and Buster Posey (Giants) are all among them. Is Teel destined to be on the same list them? Damned if I know. But in his first 138 career minor-league games at Single-A, Double-A and Triple-A, he batted a combined .301 with an .848 OPS, 15 home runs, 29 doubles, 15 stolen bases, 101 RBI and 103 runs scored. Catchers can be slow to develop – especially with regard to game-calling – and Teel has rocketed through the Boston system. (Varitek was 27 when he finally broke out.)
All of that said, the 6-foot, 190-pound Teel has frame that feels a little small and is more Blake Swihart (6-foot, 185) than Varitek (6-foot-2, 230). But you get the idea. If Teel turns into a legitimate, two-way, All-Star-caliber catcher, that is hardly a small sacrifice in the deal. You certainly have to give something to get something, and this trade will serve as Exhibit A on whether the Red Sox administration led by Craig Breslow can accurately evaluate its own players.
Now, as for Montgomery (who was drafted this year), my recollection yesterday was that he had absurdly high strikeout numbers in college. I was wrong. While Montgomery lacked plate discipline early in his college career, his command of the strike zone improved dramatically after he transferred from Stanford to Texas A&M. (He has yet to play in the minors.) What does that mean? Hard to know. But he wasn’t a throw-in by any means. One year after Keel with taken with the 14th pick of the 2023 draft, Montgomery was taken 12th in 2024.
One final note: Montgomery is a switch-hitter, but many scouts project that he will end up hitting from just the left side. The Red Sox have a truckload of lefty bats in their system, including outfielders Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu, both of whom have shown the ability to start in the major leagues. As such, Montgomery feels expendable.
What happens next?
BOSTON, MA – JULY 31: George Kirby #68 of the Seattle Mariners pitches against the Boston Red Sox during the first inning at Fenway Park on July 31, 2024 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo By Winslow Townson/Getty Images)
For years now, particularly under the guidance of Chaim Bloom, we’ve criticized the Red Sox for putting too much emphasis on the long term and not enough on the short. Given Crochet’s age (25) and experience, that really hasn’t changed a lot. As such, what happens from here will give us much greater context.
Shortly after news of the Crochet deal leaked, the Red Sox were linked to, among others, right-hander George Kirby of the Mariners, right-handed free agent Corbin Burnes and right-handed international free agent Roki Sasaki, though the last feels like a longshot. How the Sox proceed will tell us a great deal. Sasaki is the cheapest and comes with questions of durability. Burnes is the most expensive and former Cy Young Ward winner. Kirby is the best combination of age and credentials whom the Sox would need to acquire by trade, perhaps for a package built around someone like Triston Casas, Jarren Duran, even Marcelo Mayer.
Me? I like Kirby, who has walked just 64 batters in 89 career starts. Truth be told, the Sox could acquire Kirby or the 29-year-old Burnes (north of $200 million) and Sasaki given how inexpensive the latter will be. (It’s complicated, so we’ve just Googled it for you.) Now that would be something.
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – AUGUST 30: Alex Bregman #2 of the Houston Astros hits an RBI double during the fourth inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on August 30, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Paul Rutherford/Getty Images)
Regardless, the lineup, too, would need to still be addressed, which is why trading Kirby might make more sense. Remember: the Sox pursued outfielder Juan Soto at more than $600 million and backed off left-handed starter Max Fried at more than $200 million , which suggests they might be more comfortably investing in a position player than a pitcher. So, if we’re playing the fantasy game, what if they traded Casas for Kirby, then signed either Teoscar Hernandez or Alex Bregman? Such a revamped roster would give the Sox both a better, deeper rotation and better lineup balance.
And for the first time in a long time, the baseball season in Boston would look far, far more interesting.
