Chad Graff: It Could Make Sense For Patriots to Trade Down
On Tuesday’s edition of Toucher & Hardy, Chad Graff who covers the Patriots for The Athletic, joined the show and explained how it could make sense for the Patriots to trade down from the team’s number three overall pick in the NFL draft.
I Think it Could Make Sense…
Fred Toucher: The Vikings have two first round picks now, they’re having a personal workout with JJ McCarthy. It looks like they’re going to try to trade up. Where do you think they would have to trade up? I want to put you on the spot because you cover the Patriots. But where do you think they would have to trade up to get a reasonable shot at McCarthy?
Chad Graff: Well, for McCarthy, I think they only have to go to five to the Chargers, and you probably have to give up less. But the bigger question is, are they willing to try to go all the way up to three or even two? Especially if they have their eyes on Drake Maye. Kevin O’Connell, their coach, a former Patriots draft pick, is a big- get the ball and get it out quick, kind of coach. Drake Maye seems to fit that. Then you add some of the connections. Kevin O’Connell just hired Josh McCown to be his quarterbacks coach. Josh McCown used to coach Drake Maye in high school. So there’s tons of connections there. Super easy to piece it all together. and while I don’t think the Patriots want to move back with the Vikings, I think they want to sit there and draft their quarterback. You know, they’ve signaled that to anybody who will listen at the same time. Like you have a plan in place until you get punched in the face. I think the Patriots have a plan in place until maybe the Vikings make you a crazy offer where you get three first round picks in a second. It’s easy to say right now. Yeah, the Patriots love the quarterback. So they’re going to sit there and they’re going to take one. And that probably is what they’re leaning. But the Vikings have positioned themselves because they have a good offense and because they have a good offensive coach. And now because they have two first round picks that they can go do something crazy, like give up three first and a second for number three. And that’s where things get super interesting.
Speaker 3: let’s go back to Minnesota. The history of the Minnesota Vikings. Yeah we’re Patriots fans, and the Vikings this reminds me a lot of the Herschel Walker trade. Like we would all agree that Kevin O’Connell is a good coach. They’re a good organization. If they’re all like, “we’re willing to give up all this draft capital for this particular player”, and you’re a fan of the team that’s giving up. Is giving up this player for all that draft capital. Are you confident if you’re the team? With a new GM and a new coach a defensive coach. Are you sure you’re the guy in the right in this deal to you?
Chad Graff: I’m not. But at the same time, like, it makes sense why the Vikings would want to go up and get a quarterback. They’ve got awesome wide receivers, the best in the NFL. They’ve got a good tight end. They’ve got a good running back. They’ve got really good offensive tackles. You look at the Patriots and they don’t have that. They have one of the league’s worst wide receiver rooms. They’ve got one of the league’s worst offensive tackle duos. Considering we still don’t know who’s going to play left tackle. So it wouldn’t be the craziest thing to me to move back and just kind of forget about quarterback altogether this year, except that you’re not going to be that good. But use all of these extra picks to build up the wide receivers, build up the offensive tackles, get better in all of these spots, and then you’ve got two first round picks next year that if you fall in love with one of those quarterbacks, then you can move up. So I don’t think that’s where they’re leaning. But to me, if you’re willing to swallow the pill of we’re going to be that again next year, I think it could make sense.
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Patriots draft preview 2024: Quarterbacks
L-R: 2024 NFL Draft quarterbacks Drake Maye of UNC, Michael Penix of Washington, J.J. McCarthy of Michigan, and Spencer Rattler of South Carolina. (USA Today Images)
It’s that time of year again! With showcase games, the NFL Combine, and the initial wave of free agency in the books, we can get underway with the annual 98.5 The Sports Hub Patriots positional draft preview series.
Just as we’ve done the last few years, we’ll highlight a different position every Tuesday and Thursday between now and the draft (we’ll also have some form of Mock Drafts every Monday). Each preview will be a little different depending on the position itself, the way this year’s draft board is laid out, and how much of a need that position is for the Patriots.
READ MORE:
—Mike Onwenu expected to stick at one position after signing new contract
—New report indicates Patriots’ preference for No. 3 overall pick
—Mock Draft Mailbag 1.0
We’ll start with arguably the position of need for the Patriots in the draft – quarterback. The past two years these quarterback previews have been pretty much secondary info, but this year this one may be the starring attraction.
Earlier this month we put out our post-Combine quarterback big board, but this class runs much deeper than just the top players who have become household names. Whether the Patriots take a quarterback third overall, wait until Day 2, or double up and take another quarterback on Day 3, it’s still very much knowing the whole class.
So, who are the quarterbacks this year? From the top of the board to names you may be hearing for the first time, let’s take a page out of Tony Mazz’s playbook and look at the ‘tiers’ of this year’s class.
Keep in mind, these tiers are based on where players are expected to be drafted, more than their expected career outcome. Again, for that check out our QB big board. This is more a look at the draft landscape itself.
‘One-of-one’ tier
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – NOVEMBER 18: Caleb Williams #13 of the USC Trojans passes the ball during the first half of a game against the UCLA Bruins at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on November 18, 2023 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
— Caleb Williams, USC
There’s been plenty of ‘prospect fatigue’ around Caleb Williams, as he’s now been in the spotlight as the presumed top quarterback in this draft for almost two years. While he maybe isn’t on the ‘generational’ level guys like Andrew Luck or Trevor Lawrence were as prospects, he still belongs in a class of his own in this draft.
Why? His carrying trait is arguably the most sought-after trait in quarterbacks in the NFL right now – the ability to, on a relatively regular basis, create something from nothing when everything else is falling apart around him. Other parts of his game need work for sure, but there’s no such thing as a ‘perfect’ prospect and assuming that skill translates Williams should be a dangerous quarterback for a long time.
‘Should be a franchise QB’ tier
ORLANDO, FLORIDA – SEPTEMBER 03: Jayden Daniels #5 of the LSU Tigers looks to throw a pass in the first quarter against the Florida State Seminoles at Camping World Stadium on September 03, 2023 in Orlando, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)
— Jayden Daniels, LSU
— Drake Maye, UNCWhile their play styles are different, both Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye have showcased the tools teams look for in a potential franchise quarterback. For Daniels, his makeup is highlighted by his athleticism and deep ball ability. Maye flexes size and natural arm talent.
However, both have bigger flaws to fix than Williams. There’s concern about Daniels durability due to his size (listed at 6-foot-4, 210 pounds but he didn’t weigh in at the Combine), which is compounded by how reckless he can be as a runner. Meanwhile, Maye’s decision-making draws serious questions, leading to significant inconsistencies. Still, those are coachable issues that a team should be able to address relatively quickly, in which case both would have franchise quarterback upside, making them likely top 3 picks.
‘Could be a franchise QB’ tier
NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA – JANUARY 01: Michael Penix Jr. #9 of the Washington Huskies throws a pass during the fourth quarter against the Texas Longhorns during the CFP Semifinal Allstate Sugar Bowl at Caesars Superdome on January 01, 2024 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)
— Michael Penix, Washington
— J.J. McCarthy, MichiganLike Daniels and Maye, both Michael Penix and J.J. McCarthy have real franchise quarterback upside. However, their ‘ifs’ are slightly more significant and can’t be simply coached away, which likely knocks them down the board a bit (but not out of the first round).
For Penix, his red flag is his injury history. He had four season-ending injuries, including two right ACL tears, in four years at Indiana before transferring to Washington in 2022. If not for that, Penix would certainly be one tier higher and would be in the conversation for a top five pick.
Penix’s pure arm talent is the best of any quarterback in the draft. Yet despite reporting at the NFL Combine that he passed all his medical testing, teams still seem weary of using a first-round pick on him based on further reports.
McCarthy, on the other hand, comes into the NFL very inexperienced, especially for a projected high draft pick. Generally, teams use 25 career college starts as the cutoff for quarterbacks worthy of high draft picks. McCarthy made 28 starts at Michigan and was truly in the passenger seat for some of them, such as an eight pass attempt game against Penn State earlier this season. He’s also very young, having just turned 21 in January.
McCarthy’s size and athleticism, plus his ability to throw on the run, certainly will be enticing for teams. His age also gives him plenty of runway when it comes to improvement. But, there’s just not enough of him on tape right now to be able to paint a clear enough picture of his future.
‘He is what he is’ tier
EUGENE, OREGON – SEPTEMBER 23: Quarterback Bo Nix #10 of the Oregon Ducks passes the ball against the Colorado Buffaloes during the second half at Autzen Stadium on September 23, 2023 in Eugene, Oregon. (Photo by Tom Hauck/Getty Images)
— Bo Nix, Oregon
The biggest question Bo Nix had to answer coming into the pre-draft process is what he’d look like outside of an Oregon offensive system that took a lot off of his plate. So far he hasn’t done great in that regard, with less than stellar Senior Bowl and Combine performances. There are still some things Nix does well – he’s got good short and intermediate accuracy and he’s not exactly a statue in the pocket – but it’s looking more and more like he’ll simply be a product of whatever system he’s put in.
That’s not necessarily a bad thing. For a team that feels it has most of its roster in place and just needs a quarterback to drive the bus, he’d make a lot of sense late on Day 1 or early on Day 2. But for a team looking like a franchise quarterback? That ceiling just doesn’t appear to be there.
‘Fringe top 100’ tier
Oct 21, 2023; Columbia, Missouri, USA; South Carolina Gamecocks quarterback Spencer Rattler (7) during the first half against the Missouri Tigers at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
— Spencer Rattler, South Carolina
This quarterback class drops off hard after the top six quarterbacks, and there’s a real chance those six above will be the only QBs to go in the top 100. As the pre-draft process has gone on though one player has emerged to possibly bridge the gap – Spencer Rattler. Rattler was the best quarterback on the field in Mobile for the Senior Bowl then followed that up with a strong showing at the Combine.
Concerns about his size (6-foot, 211 pounds), tendency to hunt big plays too often, and inconsistent accuracy in game action remain, but he has set himself apart as the top project quarterback in this class, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he ended up going late on Day 2 to a QB-needy team that misses out on the position in the initial run.
‘Lottery ticket’ tier
Tennessee quarterback Joe Milton III (7) is seen on the field during a football game between Tennessee and Texas A&M at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tenn., on Saturday, Oct. 14, 2023. (Saul Young/News Sentinel/USA Today Network)
— Joe Milton, Tennessee
— Jordan Travis, Florida StateWe’re into the pure upside players now. These guys have some exciting individual traits, but have other issues that could prevent them from getting a significant shot to show how those traits will translate to the NFL.
There’s no better example of such a player than Joe Milton. Tennessee’s 6-foot-5, 235-pound quarterback has a rocket arm and can throw the ball over 75 yards in the air, and is a plus-athlete who is a problem for would-be tacklers when he gets into the open field on a scramble.
Yet despite his video game-like physical traits, in six college seasons, including four in which he started multiple games, he showed little development in accuracy and decision making. If he was younger and had more time to develop his draft stock may be higher, but he’s already 24 years old.
Jordan Travis made strides over his four years as a starter at Florida State, leading the Seminoles to an 11-0 record this year before suffering a significant leg injury late in the season. Prior to that injury Travis was projected as a Day 2 pick, but for an undersized quarterback (listed 6-foot-1, 200 pounds) who relies on mobility, how he heals from that injury will impact what kind of player he is in the NFL. He likely will start his rookie season on NFI. He’s also an older prospect, turning 24 in May.
‘High level backup’ tier
NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA – SEPTEMBER 02: Michael Pratt #7 of the Tulane Green Wave in action against the University of Southern Alabama at Yulman Stadium on September 02, 2023 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)
— Michael Pratt, Tulane
— Carter Bradley, South Alabama
— Austin Reed, Western KentuckyThis tier is kind of the opposite of the ‘lottery ticket’ tier. These are all quarterbacks who have a higher floor because of their accuracy and decision-making, but lack the physical traits or room for athletic growth that is needed to reach starting-caliber level. That doesn’t mean they can’t become starters, but their career path will likely be catching on as a backup and waiting for their chance (kind of like Bailey Zappe or Brock Purdy).
Michael Pratt is the highlight player of this group. He was another player who some thought might sneak into the top 100, but he’s done little in the pre-draft process to help himself get there. He’ll still probably be the first of these three quarterbacks off the board and could go ahead of one or both ‘lottery ticket’ players, if a team is approaching the pick specifically to find a reliable backup.
‘Once upon a time’ tier
SOUTH BEND, INDIANA – NOVEMBER 18: Sam Hartman #10 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish passes for a first down in the first half against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Notre Dame Stadium on November 18, 2023 in South Bend, Indiana. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)
— Sam Hartman, Notre Dame
— Kedon Slovis, BYUOnce upon a time, both Sam Hartman and Kedon Slovis were viewed as potential first-round picks. However, their careers plateaued and they never were able to reach that potential. They’ll probably still get drafted, but it may be 150-200 picks lower than one-time projections from multiple years ago.
Hartman broke out with Wake Forest in 2021, throwing for 4,228 yards and 39 touchdowns (while rushing for 11 more) in 14 games. Prior to the 2022 season he was labeled as one of the top quarterbacks in football and while he didn’t regress that season, he didn’t improve much either. Rather than head to the draft he transferred to Notre Dame last year, and saw his production dip.
Slovis looked like a star during his true freshman season at USC in 2019, but was limited to six games in 2020 due to COVID and never returned to that level of play. He played for three schools in three years between 2021 and 2023 with stops at Pitt and BYU, and in 28 games went 16-12 while throwing for 33 touchdowns and 23 interceptions.
‘Interesting UDFA’ tier
Oct 7, 2023; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; Kansas Jayhawks quarterback Jason Bean (9) drops back during the second half against the UCF Knights at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Credit: Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
— Devin Leary, Kentucky
— Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland
— Jason Bean, Kansas
— Andrew Peasley, WyomingRight now, it looks like between 12 and 14 quarterbacks will be drafted in 2024. One or two of these guys may get included late on Day 3, but likely all four will go undrafted.
Among the 20-something UDFAs in this class, these four stand out for individual reasons. Devin Leary would have fit in the ‘once upon a time’ tier, but rather than his play plateauing after his breakout year in 2021 he actually regressed – in part due to injury.
Jason Bean would be a logical target for a team that wants to add a dual-threat quarterback to its roster for camp, and potentially to the practice squad for scout-team purposes. The Patriots have certainly done that before with players like J’Mar Smith and Malik Cunningham, so Bean being on their radar would make some sense.
