Last year was an overall down year at the wide receiver position in the NFL Draft, but over the past five years the overall level of talent entering the league has been tremendous. From kids starting 7-on-7 leagues at younger ages, to the way receivers are coached and utilized in the college game, the development of wide receivers has skyrocketed.
That all being said, the 2024 wide receiver draft class takes that all to another level. There are a number of factors that led to the overall talent level of this year’s class, including the expansion of the transfer portal and the NCAA granting the extra year of COVID eligibility. For the purposes of the draft though the reasons aren’t important – it just means a lot of wide receiver-needy teams (like the New England Patriots) are in position to capitalize.
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With a class like this, it’s important to know the difference between a player being a ‘first round talent’ or having a ‘first round projection.’ The two often overlap, but not always.
First round talent is pretty self explanatory. That describes players who are worthy of a first-round pick – who can come in and make an immediate sizable impact for their new team. A player having a ‘first round projection’ is a little different. That’s a player who is simply expected to get drafted in the first round.
Not every draft is going to have exactly 32 players who are first-round talents (most drafts don’t), which is what can see a player end up in one column but not the other. Some players get first-round grades despite not having first-round talent, for reasons as simple as it’s a weak year at their position, and/or teams are desperate for help in that spot. At the same time, deeper drafts can see first-round talent players slide out of the top 32 picks.
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At wide receiver this year, there are multiple players who qualify in that second group. Just looking at the board, there are five or six players who likely would have been a top-two receiver in last year’s class, and potentially a top-20 pick. Some of those players could fall out of the top 32 in 2024.
There are currently eight receivers projected to go in the first round (plus a few more expected to go in the first picks on Day 2). But are there eight teams willing to use a first-round pick on a receiver? If not, those ‘first-round talents’ will end up falling out of the first round – much to the benefit of teams picking early in the second (again, like the Patriots).
That same pattern continues down the board. Players with typical early Day 2 talent expected to be fringe top-100 picks, and typical fringe top-100 players will go late into Day 3. That volume will continue pushing players down the board, as there are only so many wide receiver picks that can realistically be made.
So, how can the Patriots take advantage of all of this? Let’s get into it with the names to know throughout this potentially historic wide receiver class…
Top of the draft
SOUTH BEND, INDIANA – SEPTEMBER 23: Marvin Harrison Jr. #18 of the Ohio State Buckeyes in action against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the second half at Notre Dame Stadium on September 23, 2023 in South Bend, Indiana. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
It would be a surprise if at least three receivers don’t go in the top 10 this year. That top tier is made up of Marvin Harrison Jr. of Ohio State, Malik Nabers of LSU, and Rome Odunze of Washington. If the Patriots want Harrison they’d need to most likely take him third overall as he may be the best overall player in this draft regardless of positional value. They could try to trade down slightly for Nabers or Odunze, but that would be risky.
Harrison is an absolute technician, and as polished and NFL ready as any wide receiver to come through the draft in recent memory. Release, route running, strong hands, the technique is all there. There’s no such thing as a perfect prospect in terms of guarantee of NFL success, but he’s about as close as it gets.
Nabers would be the top receiver in just about any class over the last five years, but he happens to be in this one with Harrison. The next big LSU wide receiver prospect, he has the raw explosiveness, natural movement ability, and understanding of coverages to force himself open as he develops as a route-runner. He also had monster production last year, with 1,569 yards and 14 touchdowns in 13 games.
Odunze doesn’t have the overall carrying trait of Harrison Jr. or Nabers, but his game is so incredibly well-rounded, it’s easy to see it translating quickly to the NFL. He runs about as complete of a route tree as any wide receiver at the top of this class, is great at the catch point, and tough to bring down after the catch. He ran a 4.45-second 40 at 6-foot-3, 212 pounds. Odunze combines all of that with the mental makeup teams look for – he’s a former team captain that has displayed the kind of leadership and toughness GMs want to build around.
Remaining ‘first-round talents’
TAMPA, FLORIDA – JANUARY 01: Brian Thomas Jr. #11 of the LSU Tigers makes a catch during the ReliaQuest Bowl against the Wisconsin Badgers at Raymond James Stadium on January 01, 2024 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
So how about the rest of the ‘first-round talent’ on the board? This is the group of receivers that most years would be first-round locks, but could end up sweating it out this year or end up out of the first altogether. Because of that it’s tough to say whether the Patriots would be able to get any of these players at 34th overall, or potentially need to trade up slightly to land them.
This group starts with Brian Thomas Jr. from LSU, who probably is a first-round lock but isn’t quite the level of prospect as the three players mentioned above. Thomas followed up a 17-touchdown season at LSU with a very impressive pre-draft process, highlighted by his Combine performance that saw him run a 4.33-second 40 at 6-foot-3, 209 pounds. He also breezed through on-field drills. Thomas’ size and athleticism give him the ideal makeup teams look for when trying to find a leading ‘X’ receiver, but he’s just not as polished technically as the three players above him – knocking him out of the top 10.
Adonai Mitchell from Texas is a very similar player to Thomas. He’s big (6-foot-2, 205 pounds), explosive (4.34 40) and he can go get just about any football thrown remotely near him thanks to his impressive catch radius and body control. However, unlike Thomas, he only has one year of starter-level production instead of two. Most years, Mitchell would be a first-round lock but with so many receivers who were stars for two or three seasons in this class, he gets knocked down a bit.
Another fringe top 100 player is Mitchell’s teammate at Texas, Xavier Worthy. Worthy drew headlines during the Combine when he ran a 4.21-second 40, setting the NFL record. Many are quick to point to the lack of success other top 40 runners have had, but Worthy isn’t some player who came out of nowhere and is suddenly on the radar for a good 40. He was a four-star recruit and top-10 receiver in his class coming out of high school, who went on to have plenty of success at Texas. As quick as he his fast, Worthy profiles more as a YAC weapon ‘Z’ or slot receiver, similar to Zay Flowers or Demario Douglas. Like those two, there are questions about his size – he checked in at the Combine at 5-foot-11, 165 pounds.
Georgia slot receiver Ladd McConkey is a similar kind of player expected to go in this range. He’s not as fast as Worthy (but he’s still fast) but a bit more slippery.
Keon Coleman from Florida State fits the other extreme mold of a wide receiver. At 6-foot-3, 213 pounds he’s a jump ball and contested catch weapon who wins with physicality rather than athleticism.
Day 2 stars
Sep 30, 2023; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Michigan Wolverines wide receiver Roman Wilson (1) during the third quarter against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Memorial Stadium. Credit: Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports
Let’s say the Patriots stay at 34, and there is a massive run on wide receivers ahead of them. They’d still have some strong options at wide receiver.
The best player in this group is Michigan’s Roman Wilson. Throughout the pre-draft process, it’s become clear that Michigan’s run-first offense limited Wilson’s ability to display his full skillset. He was nearly uncoverable at the Senior Bowl, showcasing high-level route running ability. In a draft with so many stars, Wilson’s lack of production (his career year in 2023 featured 48 catches for 789 yards) will knock him a bit, as well his size (5-foot-11, 185 pounds). That being said, if utilized correctly he has the chance to be a matchup problem in the pros.
If the Patriots want more of a YAC option, South Carolina’s Xavier Legette has drawn comparisons to another former Gamecocks receiver, Deebo Samuel. Most of his damage comes once he gets the ball in his hands – he averaged 6.4 yards after the catch per reception last year. He has the speed to run by defenders, and the size (6-foot-1, 221 pounds) and strength to run through them. He’s not the kind of nuanced route runner that will be a traditional No. 1 wide receiver, but has a tremendous ceiling as a scheme touch player.
Florida’s Ricky Pearsall stands out on tape for how ferociously he plays the position. Everything he does, from his release to his cuts in his routes to the catch point, is done with purpose. He’s not a top-tier athlete, but certainly more than functional in that regard. But, like many receivers in this draft, he doesn’t have the sustained success that gets other players attention. Consistency will be a big question for him as a pro.
The final player in this range is Oregon’s Troy Franklin. A taller (6-foot2, 176 pounds) speed receiver, Franklin mainly handled deep assignments at Oregon. As a prospect, his makeup is similar to Tyquan Thornton. Another team may be able to maximize his skillset, but he’d be redundant to the Patriots, who have struggled to develop this kind of receiver in the past.
Rest of Day 2
CHAPEL HILL, NORTH CAROLINA – OCTOBER 14: Devontez Walker #9 of the North Carolina Tar Heels breaks away from Kamren Kinchens #5 of the Miami Hurricanes for a touchdown during the second half of their game at Kenan Memorial Stadium on October 14, 2023 in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. The Tar Heels won 41-31. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
Looking mostly at players who will go around the Patriots’ 68th pick, we’ll start with a pair of Washington Huskies in Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan. Polk is a bigger outside receiver who isn’t afraid to make catches in traffic or through contact. McMillan is more of a chain-mover than big-play hitter, who is a reliable receiver with a knack for getting open. There are certainly some similarities to Jakobi Meyers in his game.
The true ‘X’ receiver later on Day 2 is Brenden Rice, the son of Jerry Rice. Brenden is a much different player than his father. He’s a good route runner, but wins as much with size (6-foot-2, 208 pounds) and physicality as anything. Teams in need of a true outside receiver will likely have him circled, but his ceiling will come down to how he handles the increase physicality in the NFL.
Tez Walker was projected to be an earlier pick in this draft, but the UNC wideout has struggled during the pre-draft process. For those that believe in the tape above all else, he could end up being a steal as a pure deep ball threat. He’s a vertical explosive player, with much better hands that most receivers of that play style.
While Walker is more of an ‘X’ deep ball receiver, Jermaine Burton wins deep mainly as a ‘Z’ receiver. Burton plays bigger than his deep ball size (6-foot, 196), especially at the catch point. His role at Alabama was mostly vertical, but it’ll be hard for him to win just that way in the NFL so he’ll need to expand his route tree. Javon Baker from UCF is a similar player, who the Patriots reportedly have a top-30 meeting scheduled with.
Western Kentucky’s Malachi Corley is also expected to go in this range after his Combine performance came up short of expectations. Corley is a similar player to Legette, although not quite as big and athletic. He’ll need to go to a team that can maximize a gadget player.
The final Day 2 receiver to know – and maybe the most interesting receiver in this class – is Johnny Wilson from Florida State. Wilson is 6-foot-6, 231 pounds but isn’t the typical big body hybrid tight end receiver many assume. He moves really well for his size, running a 4.52-second 40 with a 4.11 second shuttle. That translates to a good route running repertoire and an ability to create after the catch. Where Wilson struggles is where many big receivers thrive, in contested catch situations. It’s tough to tell what to make of Wilson because there really are no players like him in the NFL right now. Whatever teams drafts him will need to have a development plan and role ready specific to him.
Early Day 3
COLLEGE PARK, MARYLAND – SEPTEMBER 15: Malik Washington #4 of the Virginia Cavaliers makes a catch in the first quarter against the Maryland Terrapins at SECU Stadium on September 15, 2023 in College Park, Maryland. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
The early part of Day 3 is highlighted by a group of smaller slot receivers in Malik Washington of Virginia, Jacob Cowing of Arizona, and Ainias Smith of Texas A&M. Washington is the most complete of the three, while Cowing is more of a traditional slot receiver and Smith’s game is more explosive but less nuanced. If the Patriots want some low-level insurance behind Demario Douglas, any of the three would be a fit.
There’s also a big slot option in Luke McCaffrey from Rice – Christian’s brother. Luke, a former quarterback, has helped himself a ton during the pre-draft process. He’s especially developed as a route runner, which will be key. The McCaffrey family athleticism is apparent as well, as the 6-foot-2, 198 pound younger brother ran a 4.46-second 40 with a 36-inch vertical. Because he just started playing receiver McCaffrey is still a project, but a project off to a good start.
At the ‘X’ position is Jamari Thrash of Louisville. Thrash is a pretty well rounded player that doesn’t have any standout strengths, but for the most part doesn’t have any weaknesses either. The thing is, most of the ‘jack of all trades, master of none’ players that have success in the NFL are a bit bigger than Thrash, at 6-foot, 188 pounds.
Late Day 3
PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA – NOVEMBER 4: Bub Means #0 of the Pittsburgh Panthers makes a catch in front of Renardo Green #8 of the Florida State Seminoles for a 9-yard touchdown reception in the second quarter during the game at Acrisure Stadium on November 4, 2023 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images)
For the later part of Day 3, we’re going to highlight two receivers who may be overlooked due to the situations they were in at the college level. The first is Jordan Whittington from Texas. We’ve already included two of Texas’ big play threats on this list, and tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders is an explosive weapon in his own right. With all that explosiveness, somebody had to be the chain mover. That was Whittington, who relatively quietly caught 42 passes for 505 yards (but only one touchdown) this year. That was after a 50-catch, 652-yard season in 2022.
Whittington knows how to find his way open in the short an intermediate parts of the field, and has sure hands. It’s maybe not the most high-profile role, but one that teams looking to round out an offense will need. Whittington’s toughness and willingness to take contact also suggest he could fill a special teams role at the next level.
Finally we get to Bub Means from Pitt. Means has had an interesting football journey so far. It began at Tennessee, where he was a defensive back and barely saw the field. Means then transferred to Louisiana Tech in 2021, and had a solid season after making the move to receiver. That was followed by a transfer to Pitt.
Means’ game was supposed to hit another level at a Power 5 school, but the overall disfunction of Pitt’s offense – especially at the quarterback position – capped what he could do. Still, he ended up with 41 catches for 721 yards and six touchdowns in 12 games. Means is an explosive downfield route runner who can pull away with late burst on extended routes. When he doesn’t, he excels at the catch point at 6-foot-1, 212 pounds. He also showed growth creating after the catch in 2023. Still, given the nature of the offensive he played in the last two years most of his traits were shown as flashes. That pushes him down the board, but whatever NFL team drafts him will hope he can use those skills more consistently in a more stable offensive environment.
