Our 2024 Patriots NFL Draft positional preview has reached the final position on defense (but not the final position we’ll cover all-together). It’s time to take a look at this year’s safeties class.
As the college game evolves to more zone-heavy and Cover 4 defenses, the kinds of players coming into the NFL have reflected that reality. Recent draft classes have skewed heavily towards box safeties, strong safeties, or free safeties with limited experience with deep half or full field assignments. This class is different, with true free safeties up and down the board.
—Mock Draft Mailbag 3.0
—Matt Dolloff’s final Patriots mock draft
—2024 NFL Draft positional preview: Cornerbacks
That has the potential to work out very well for the Patriots. Yes, the Patriots re-signed Kyle Dugger to a long-term contract last week, but in a way that actually should increase the urgency with which they try to add a true deep safety.
After playing primarily near the line of scrimmage in his first three NFL seasons, the Patriots moved Dugger to the back end more often in 2023 following the retirement of Devin McCourty. Dugger simply wasn’t as impactful in that role. The same can be said for the Patriots’ other start safety, Jabrill Peppers. In order to maximize the impact by both of those players, it would help if the Patriots had a deep safety on the roster to allow those two to both play their primary roles.
While filling that role through free agency could be an option (Justin Simmons is still available), drafting a player could set the Patriots up with a more long-term, sustainable option. So, as we go through this year’s safety class we’ll mainly be looking at the free safeties, but touch on some of the top box safeties as well.
Top 100 safeties
Aug 31, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers defensive back Tyler Nubin (27) celebrates a stop against the Nebraska Cornhuskers during the fourth quarter at Huntington Bank Stadium. Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
Right off the bat, we get into the free safety prospects. Tyler Nubin from Minnesota, a projected second-round pick, is the consensus top safety in this class has the kind of center field upside not found as often in modern safety prospects. He played almost exclusively on the back end for the Golden Gophers and was highly productive with nine interceptions and eight pass breakups over the past two years.
Nubin has the size, ball skills, and instincts teams want in a deep safety. The one question teams will have is about his straight-line speed. Obviously that’s an important trait at this position, but on tape his instincts and explosiveness allow him to cover ground quicker than the physical testing suggests he can.
If the Patriots are worried about Nubin’s speed – or simply don’t want to draft a safety in the top 50 – there are a couple of projected third-round picks they could target as well. Calen Bullock was a two-year starter for USC primarily playing free safety but also mixing in as a nickel safety and clot corner. While he’s more on the athletic side than Nubin, he does have a tendency to get too aggressive which can lead to him getting baited out of position.
Dadrion Taylor-Demerson from Texas Tech has the athleticism and instincts to play deep safety, and also has experience playing split and nickel. A three-year starter, he brings plenty of experience, but his size (5-foot-10, 197 pounds) could knock him down boards a bit.
Other safeties expected to go in the top 100 are hybrid free safety/slot cornerback Javon Bullard from Georgia, and strong safeties Cole Bishop from Utah and Jaden Hicks from Washington State.
Kam Kinchens
MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA – NOVEMBER 18: Kamren Kinchens #5 of the Miami Hurricanes intercepts a pass intended for Jamari Thrash #1 of the Louisville Cardinals during the first quarter of the game at Hard Rock Stadium on November 18, 2023 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
Miami’s Kam Kinchens gets his own tier because it’s very difficult to project exactly where he’ll go in the draft. Initially projected as the top safety in this class and a potential first-round pick, Kinchens was highly productive as a two-year starter for Miami recording 11 interceptions over the last two seasons. A rangy and instinctive player, he appears on tape to be the kind of back-end defender the Patriots should be targeting in the draft.
However, Kinchens had a very rough day at the NFL Combine. What he doesn’t on tape doesn’t come close to reflecting his testing numbers, which suggest a limited athlete. While he wasn’t expected to break any records at the Combine, he just needed to show he was athletic enough where his instincts would bridge the gap – and that’s not what happened.
That leaves Kinchens in a weird spot. What will teams value more, what he did during the season or his Combine testing? The good news for the Patriots is they have some extra insight into Kinchens, with former Miami staffer Alonzo Highsmith joining their from office this offseason.
Day 3 safeties
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – NOVEMBER 11: Dominique Hampton #7 of the Washington Huskies celebrates his interception against the Utah Utes during the fourth quarter at Husky Stadium on November 11, 2023 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
Dominique Hampton from Washington is a read-and-react safety who handles deep responsibilities for the Huskies this year. However, his tackling ability is a question, and that’s an important trait for a player who is going to be the last line of defense. He’s a projected mid-Day 3 pick.
Moving to more onto hybrid safeties, Tykee Smith from Georgia is a player I’ve had on my radar for the Patriots for a few years – but he kept returning to school. Smith projects as a true Swiss Army Knife kind of defensive back with the ability to play box safety, free safety, and slot corner. In the NFL, he’ll likely play mostly in the slot. If the Patriots want to find a player to replace Myles Bryant’s skillset one-for-one, Smith would be a logical target.
Evan Williams from Oregon is an example of a player who began as a box safety, but last year after transferring from Fresno State played much more on the back end. Williams was one of the top players at the Senior Bowl, showing impressive range and instincts in the deep part of the field. More of a project player, he’s expected to go later on Day 3.
One of the most unique players in this draft is Sione Vaki from Utah. Not only is he a multi-positional defensive back, he also played some running back for the Utes and was asked to work out at the position at the Combine. In the NFL he’ll likely be mostly a nickel safety and more of a depth running back than anything else, but as a true three-phase player he certainly has value on Day 3.
There are a few more box safeties worth knowing that have been connected to the Patriots. James Williams, like Kam Kinchens, has the Alonzo Highsmith connection from Miami. Josh Proctor from Ohio State had a pre-draft meeting with the Patriots.
UDFAs
Sep 2, 2023; Laramie, Wyoming, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders defensive back Tyler Owens (18) against the Wyoming Cowboys during the second quarter at Jonah Field at War Memorial Stadium. Credit: Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports
Tyler Owens from Texas Tech brings great size and ton of athletic ability to the defensive backfield. However, how he’ll use those raw traits remains a mystery. He started just 12 games for Texas Tech, and played only 961 total snaps in college. His game is very raw, to the point where it’s tough to pinpoint exactly what his best position will be as a defensive back. An intriguing project, he’ll likely get to the UDFA market but be one of the top players in it.
Jason Maitre from Wisconsin is another name Patriots fans should know. The team hosted him at their local pro day.
