Jan 17, 2024; Foxborough, MA, USA; A New England Patriots helmet sits on a table prior to a press conference at Gillette Stadium. Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
When we did our first Patriots Mock Draft of the offseason back in February, there was still a lot we didn’t know. The Patriots were still in the process of filling out their new coaching staff, the team hadn’t definitively named a head of personnel, and the pre-draft process was just beginning.
Fast forward over a month, and a lot has happened. With Eilot Wolf leading the way the Patriots have assembled a full coaching staff. Meanwhile all the prospects have been through the NFL Combine and most have had their pro days.
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There was also NFL free agency, which certainly changes the landscape. In our initial mock draft we had to project some moves for the Patriots (namely signing a big-name wide receiver), most of which did not happen. Instead, the Patriots mostly retained players in free agency, making only minor targeted additions.
That strategy points to one thing – the Patriots are all in on the draft. Wolf’s Packer Way plan of ‘draft and develop’ won’t get an initial boost from free agency. Rather, the goal appears to be trying to find multiple core foundational players in this draft.
With the third overall pick at their disposal, the Patriots are in position to add at least one such player. But could they get aggressive and improve their chances at adding a second? We’ll look into that and more as we get into Patriots Mock Draft 2.0…
Round 1, Pick 3:
QB Drake Maye, UNC
CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – SEPTEMBER 02: Drake Maye #10 of the North Carolina Tar Heels stiff-arms Stone Blanton #52 of the South Carolina Gamecocks during the first half of the game at Bank of America Stadium on September 02, 2023 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
Generally, I try to not repeat players over the course of mock drafts. Yet it’s tough to do at the top of the board this year given the overall layout of the draft.
For now, it seems like LSU’s Jayden Daniels will go second overall to the Washington Commanders, which would leave the Patriots with Maye. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, with Maye projecting as a better fit in Alex Van Pelt’s offense given his ability to throw between the numbers.
Whether or not he starts immediately will remain a question, as his footwork needs improvement and he’ll need to be coached on not passing up easy good plays while hunting great plays as often. Still, once he does step on the field he has all the natural tools needed to be a quarterback that can elevate the players around him.
If Maye ends up going second and Daniels falls to third, the same all still applies, just with different adjustments needing to be made. The Patriots would likely focus on Daniels’ middle of the field accuracy while coaching him to better protect himself as a runner before exposing him to game action.
TRADE!
Feb 27, 2024; Indianapolis, IN, USA; New England Patriots director of scouting Eliot Wolf during the NFL Scouting Combine at Indiana Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Patriots get:
— 26th overall pick (1st round)
Buccaneers get:
— 34th overall pick (2nd round)
— 103rd overall pick (4th round)
— 2025 6th-round pickThis is where the Patriots start to get aggressive. Yes, there will be very talented receivers on the board at 34th overall. But with so many teams needing receivers late in the fist round (Bills, Ravens, Chiefs, and the Panthers at the top of the second), the Patriots don’t wait to see who falls. Instead, they move up to get their guy, who will hopefully turn into a true coverage-dictating ‘X’ wide receiver.
The trade here is modeled after one in 2022, when the Bucks moved down from 27 with the Jacksonville Jaguars. That trade saw the Jags send a second, fourth, and sixth that year. In order to maintain overall draft capital, the Patriots instead send next year’s sixth in this scenario.
Round 1, Pick 26 (from TB):
WR AD Mitchell, Texas
TUSCALOOSA, ALABAMA – SEPTEMBER 09: Adonai Mitchell #5 of the Texas Longhorns catches the ball for a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Alabama Crimson Tide at Bryant-Denny Stadium on September 09, 2023 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
As mentioned above, there will be some very good wide receiver talent on the board at 34. But the Patriots are chasing a potential true No. 1, so they move up to get a guy in Mitchell that has consistently flashed that kind of potential all year.
After being buried on the depth chart at Georgia for the first two years of his college career, Mitchell found his stride at Texas in 2023. In 14 games he caught 55 passes for 845 yards and 11 touchdowns. His statement performance came against Alabama, when he caught three passes for 78 yards and two touchdowns (as well as drawing a long holding penalty) working against projected first-round cornerbacks Terrion Arnold and Kool-Aid McKinstry.
Mitchell is 6-foot-2, 205 pounds and a plus-plus athlete, running a 4.34-second 40 with a 39.5-inch vertical at the Combine. On top of his athletic ability he has an excellent catch radius and body control, making him excellent at contested-catch jump balls.
So why isn’t he going higher in the draft? That’s more about the other receivers than it is him. Most years, Mitchell would probably be a top 20 pick. But with this class being as talented as it is, featuring players who are multi-year producers in college, his one year of production causes a bit of a slide – to the Patriots’ benefit. If he can prove to play at his 2023 level consistently, he should be a big play factor throughout his career.
Round 3, Pick 68:
OT Kiran Amegadjie, Yale
Oct 16, 2021; East Hartford, Connecticut, USA; Yale Bulldogs offensive lineman Kiran Amegadjie (72) blocks Connecticut Huskies defensive lineman Lwal Uguak (98) during the first half at Rentschler Field at Pratt & Whitney Stadium. Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
Because of the trade up, the Patriots have a slightly bigger gap between their second and third picks. However, they still end up with the same number of top-100 picks.
This tackle class falls off outside of the top 50, so if the Patriots don’t address the position with one of their first two picks they may struggle to find a Day 1 starter (the same is true at wide receiver, just with more high-end project players late on Day 3). However, multiple reports have indicated the team may view recent signee Chuks Okorafor as a bridge left tackle, despite the fact that he hasn’t played the position since college, lining up exclusively on the right side in the NFL.
Given all of that, it would make sense for the Patriots to wait a bit and focus more on ceiling than floor at tackle. That brings them to Amegadjie, who checks a lot of the boxes Wolf has generally looked for at tackle during his past stops. Amegadjie has an NFL frame already at 6-foot-5, 323 pounds with 36 1/8-inch arms. He has tremendous natural athleticism for a player his size. His approach is nuanced, and he can handle more complex pass rush games.
This would also be somewhat of a ‘value’ pick. Amegadjie only played in four games last year due to a quad injury, which also kept him out of the Senior Bowl and Combine. Had he been able to participate in those events, he’d likely be locked in as a top-50 pick.
Amegadjie’s development will come down to fine-tuning his technique. If the Patriots can coach him up right, he has the upside of a starting left tackle. It’s not unrealistic to think he could handle such a role at some point in Year 1, but Year 1 Week 1 might be a bit of a stretch.
Round 5, Pick Pick 137:
CB Josh Newton, TCU
Sep 23, 2023; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs cornerback Josh Newton (2) intercepts a pass intended for SMU Mustangs wide receiver Jordan Kerley (1) during the second half at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
After using their first three picks on defense last year then re-signing just about every internal defensive free agent they had this spring, the Patriots are able to focus mostly on offense in this draft. However, they mix in one pick on the defensive side of the ball here.
At this time last year, Newton was a projected first-round pick for this upcoming draft. However, he failed to have the breakout season some expected in 2023, which has caused him to fall down draft boards.
Newton is also a bit of a ‘tweener’ at cornerback making him relatively scheme-specific, which also doesn’t help his draft standing. He played on the boundary almost exclusively in college, but at 5-foot-11, 190 pounds, NFL teams may want him to move inside to slot corner. But what team is great with ‘tweener’ cornerbacks? That’s right, the New England Patriots.
In the Patriots’ defense, Newton’s instincts, press ability and physicality both at the catch point and in the run game will play well. He’d be able to give the Patriots competitive depth on the boundary initially, and realistically could become a multi-positional corner as he develops, working his way into a bigger role.
Trade!
Feb 27, 2024; Indianapolis, IN, USA; New England Patriots director of scouting Eliot Wolf during the NFL Scouting Combine at Indiana Convention Center. Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Patriots get:
— 196th overall pick (6th round)
— 213th overall pick (6th round)Rams get:
— 180th overall pick (6th round)
As of Monday morning the Patriots have 70 players (including transition-tagged Kyle Dugger) on their roster, leaving 20 spots open. While they’ll probably add a few more players between now and the draft, that’s a lot of open roster spots for this time of year – potentially an indication the Patriots plan on having a bigger rookie class that usual. Given that, we have them moving back here to add an extra pick.
Round 6, Pick 193 (from JAX):
TE Tip Reiman, Illinois
Nov 25, 2023; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini tight end Tip Reiman (89) is tackled by Northwestern Wildcats linebacker Bryce Gallagher (32) during the first half at Memorial Stadium. Credit: Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
The Patriots have a couple of mainly pass-catching tight ends in Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper, but adding a blocker to that group to round out the room would make sense. Enter Reiman, who is a mauler at 6-foot-5, 271 pounds. A former walk-on who became a team captain, Reiman may be the best run-blocking tight end in the draft, and is a plus player in that regard.
Reiman likely will never be a leading receiving option, but he’s not incapable as a pass catcher either. He caught 19 passes for 203 yards and three touchdowns last year. Nobody is going to mistake him for Travis Kelce or George Kittle but he moves well for his size (he ran a 4.64-second 40 at the Combine), suggesting he has the chance to be capable enough that defenses can’t totally ignore him when he’s running routes.
Round 6, Pick 196 (from LAR):
RB Tyrone Tracy Jr., Purdue
LINCOLN, NEBRASKA – OCTOBER 28: Running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. #3 of the Purdue Boilermakers runs against the Nebraska Cornhuskers in the second quarter at Memorial Stadium on October 28, 2023 in Lincoln, Nebraska. (Photo by Steven Branscombe/Getty Images)
Based on moves they’ve made over the past few years, and going off of Alex Van Pelt’s tendencies in Cleveland, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Patriots go from subbing their running backs situationally (ex. early down, passing down backs) taking their now well-rounded backfield and subbing them by drive, with guys playing in all situations. Both Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson have the skillset for that kind of setup.
Working off of that, adding another well-rounded back would make sense. That brings us to Tracy, who was a wide receiver for the first four years of his college career (all at Iowa). In 2022 he transferred to Purdue and started to carry the ball more, then became a full-time running back last year. He’s still working on getting better at the intricacies of running the ball, but for a guy a year and a half into the change he’s made good progress.
A strong Combine performance certainly helped Tracy’s stock. The Patriots sent running backs coach Taylor Embree to Tracy’s pro day, so he’s likely on their radar at least to some extent.
Round 6, Pick 213 (from LAR):
WR Bub Means, Pitt
PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA – NOVEMBER 4: Bub Means #0 of the Pittsburgh Panthers makes a catch in front of Renardo Green #8 of the Florida State Seminoles for a 9-yard touchdown reception in the second quarter during the game at Acrisure Stadium on November 4, 2023 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images)
Based on his overall makeup, Means looks like a very logical Patriots draft choice. He ran a 4.43 40 with a 39.5-inch vertical and put up 19 reps on the bench press at 6-foot-1, 212 pounds – all of which lines up with the wide receivers drafted during Eliot Wolf’s tenure with the Packers and Browns. Plus, Means’ positional coach at Pitt was Tiquan Underwood, who was just hired by the Patriots as an assistant wide receivers coach.
As for Means as a player, he was used as an intermediate and deep threat in college, using his speed and contested catch ability to make plays down the field. He’s also shown he can be tough to tackle after the catch. Still, it’s tough to get a full picture of Means’ skillset after he played in a dysfunctional Pitt offense the last two years. Before joining the Panthers he spent one year at Louisiana Tech, and averaged 19.5 yards per catch on 22 catches as a redshirt freshman. Means spent his true freshman year at Tennessee, where he saw limited action as a defensive back.
Round 7, Pick 231 (from CHI):
OT Tylan Grable, UCF
Oct 13, 2022; Orlando, Florida, USA; UCF Knights offensive lineman Tylan Grable (71) carries the ball during the second quarter against the Temple Owls at FBC Mortgage Stadium. Credit: Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports
At this point in the draft we’re just talking about project players. In this range there are few better projects than Grable, who has flown significantly under the radar during the pre-draft process.
A three-year starter between Jacksonville State and UCF, Grable went from being an high school quarterback to an all-conference tackle in his first year as a starter at Jax State, to a standout blindside protector for the Knights. In 414 pass blocking snaps last year he allowed just 10 pressures without a sack, although he was penalized eight times in 841 total snaps.
Grable’s overall Combine testing was excellent – he ran a 4.95-second 40 with a 1.69 10-yard split and had a 36.5-inch vertical at 6-foot-6, 305 pounds. Again, he fits the athletic profile Eliot Wolf’s teams have traditionally looked for.
As a former quarterback and tight end, Grable moves very well for his size, he just needs to be better about cutting down on penalties. He may not be a Day 1 starting left tackle as he hones his technique and adds muscle as a rookie, but in the sixth round his upside represents a good longer-term investment.
