Zolak & Bertrand: The Football Card – Week 18
The crew owns a record of 35-33-2 after Week 17 as they continue to scuffle down the stretch.
Beetle got back on track with a win after betting on the Ravens (-3) to handle the Jaguars. Zo wasn’t as lucky after throwing his money on the Steelers (-1.5) to take care of business against the Colts. Hardy just missed out on a win after the Patriots (+8.5) couldn’t keep it that close against the Chiefs. T-Bone swung and missed for the fourth week in a row after betting on the Cowboys-Bills game to surpass the OVER (50.5). Lastly, Milliken pushed after taking the Bengals (-3) against the Vikings.
One of the biggest questions we get each week is what betting lines do we make our picks from. In past years, sports betting wasn’t allowed in Massachusetts, but that barrier has finally been broken down. Check out Bet MGM to see the exact same lines the guys are looking at.
Beetle (11-3): Texans @ Colts – Texans (-1)
HOUSTON, TEXAS – OCTOBER 15: C.J. Stroud #7 of the Houston Texans throws a pass during the game against the New Orleans Saints at NRG Stadium on October 15, 2023 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)
Beetle is all about the Texans. He thinks C.J. Stroud shows up with a chance to win the AFC South, especially with Gardner Minshew as QB1 for the Colts. It also doesn’t help that Colts have been mediocre at home this season with a 4-4 record.
Zolak (7-7): Bengals @ Browns – UNDER 37.5
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – JANUARY 29: Ja’Marr Chase #1 of the Cincinnati Bengals catches a pass against the Kansas City Chiefs during the fourth quarter in the AFC Championship Game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on January 29, 2023 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Zo is all about the under in this matchup because the Browns are resting their players. Throw in Jake Browning as the QB for the Bengals and neither side should be putting up a lot of points. It also doesn’t look like Tee Higgins will be on the field for the season finale before hitting free agency.
Hardy (6-7-1): Bills @ Dolphins – Dolphins (+2.5)
Sep 17, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) passes the ball during the first half against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Credit: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports
In Ryan Johnston’s first attempt at The Football Card, he was confident in going with the Dolphins over the Bills on Sunday. Despite the Bills getting hot with 4 straight wins, they’ve been inconsistent all season long with the Stefon Diggs drama filling headlines. This feels like a spot where the Dolphins assert their dominance at home and clinch the AFC East.
T-Bone (7-7): Bills @ Dolphins – UNDER 48.5
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – DECEMBER 06: Head coach Sean McDermott of the Buffalo Bills looks on during pregame warm-ups prior to the game against the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium on December 06, 2021 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)
T-Bone hasn’t had to much luck with overs lately, so he’s rolling with an under this time around. This should be a tight game either way, with big playoff implications for both teams. Hard to see the Bills putting up 48 points again with their recent offensive struggles.
Milliken (4-9-1): Jets @ Patriots – Patriots (-1.5)
Dec 24, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Bailey Zappe (4) calls out in the first half against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
It’s been a rough season for the Patriots, but Milliken is all in on them beating the Jets for the 16th time in a row. This should be a sloppy game as snow rolls into the area the night before, which will limit both Bailey Zappe and Trevor Semien. That puts a lot of attention on the defenses and run game, which is exactly the type of football Bill Belichick likes to play.
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Flurries to the finish: Patriots vs. Jets What To Watch For
The quarterback matchup
CLEVELAND, OHIO – DECEMBER 28: Trevor Siemian #14 throws the ball prior to playing the Cleveland Browns at Cleveland Browns Stadium on December 28, 2023 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images)
The first meeting between these two teams – a 15-10 Patriots win in Week 3 – wasn’t exactly an offensive shootout. Mac Jones led the Patriots to just 201 passing yards for the game, while Zach Wilson had the Jets at 157.
Neither of those quarterbacks will play this Sunday. Jones was benched for Bailey Zappe midseason, and Wilson is out with a concussion. Trevor Siemian will start for the Jets in what will be his third start of the year.
Siemian has made one previous career start against the Patriots, when he was with the Denver Broncos late in the 2016 season. He completed 25 of his 40 pass attempts in that game for 282 yards with no touchdowns and a pick.
Meanwhile, both defenses come in playing well. The Patriots have forced at least one turnover in five of six games going back to the bye, and in only one of those games (Week 15 against the Kansas City Chiefs) did the opposing team get over 300 total yards. On the other side, the Jets’ defense has been a takeaway machine with six turnovers forced over the last two games.
This likely isn’t a game that will be won at the quarterback position. Rather, it may come down to which quarterback makes fewer mistakes. That being said, the level of quarterbacking won’t be the only thing holding back these offenses…
Let it snow?
FOXBOROUGH, MA – JANUARY 03: A general view as snow falls during a game between the New England Patriots and the New York Jets at Gillette Stadium on January 3, 2021 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Billie Weiss/Getty Images)
It’s been a while since the Patriots played in a really good snow game. That’s expected to change this week.
Currently, the forecast for Foxborough includes three to five inches of snow on Saturday night, with another three to five on Sunday accompanied by winds in the mid-teens. Winter football may finally be back in Foxborough (speaking of, check out our podcast on the top snow games in Patriots history).
What does that mean for the game? If the footing isn’t great on the field, running the ball becomes very difficult. It could result in both teams putting the ball in their quarterbacks’ hands and emphasizing screens or other short passes.
Bill Belichick’s last game
DENVER, COLORADO – DECEMBER 24: Head coach Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots watches from the sidelines during the 2nd quarter of the game against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field At Mile High on December 24, 2023 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)
Finally, there’s the overarching question about whether or not this will be Bill Belichick’s last game with the Patriots. The rumors and speculation about Belichick’s future with the team that have been building over the past few months will come to a head next week – but first, this game. While this game may have no playoff significance this year it certainly has historical significance if it ends up Belichick’s final one with the franchise.
The question is, will there be any sort of recognition of that possibility? It’s unlikely the team will do anything official, but will fans chant for Belichick? Bring signs? Will Belichick himself acknowledge the crowd in any new way at the end of the game?
Some of that is probably dependent on the way the game goes. We won’t truly know the historical context of this game until after it’s over, but it’s still something to keep in mind as it’s going on.
