The Patriots and Dolphins will meet at Gillette on Sunday Night football in a divisional matchup. The Patriots are 3 point home underdogs, with the total at 46.5. There are many things to consider on which side to bet. I wanted to bring attention to the lead official in this game, Shawn Smith. The ref angle (RAngle) should numbers jump off the page. Here is the write up from Warren Sharp from Sharp Analysis regarding the refs.
INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 10: Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins takes a snap in the third quarter during a 36-34 Dolphins win over the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium on September 10, 2023 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
Shawn Smith: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting
Shawn Smith is another new referee with only 4 seasons in the NFL. Smith is solid and not intimidated by home crowds as evidenced by his ATS numbers.
Smith’s officiating style also gives the offense a chance to make plays and perhaps get assistance via a pass interference call to extend drives. This has resulted in a solid Over record.
Smith, like other newer refs, only has a small sample size of available data. However, we can only go on numbers and the numbers don’t lie:
- Home teams 26-36-2 ATS (41%)
- In Division match-ups home teams are 7-17 ATS (28%)
- 35-28-1 Over (56%) in 4 years as head referee
- 19-13-1 Over (60%) in 2020/2021 NFL seasons
- Smith tied for fewest offensive holding penalties in 2021
- Smith called 4th fewest offensive holding penalties in 2020
- In the 2020/2021 Shawn Smith called the 4th & 5th most defensive pass interference penalties
This is not good for the Patriots considering they are the home underdog in this one. And considering the Injuries they have on the offensive line and the status of Jonathan Jones. The over could be in play.
