Thanksgiving Trends & Discussion
There are 3 games on the NFL Slate for Thanksgiving day. The public favorites have done very well on Thanksgiving over the years hitting at 76% since 2005 according to Bet Labs. The over is 26-26 during that same time frame. Unders have been a hit this season in general winning at 61%.Check out Scaz’s article as he ranks the 3 games on Thanksgiving
12:30PM Kickoff Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-7.5)
- Dan Campbell is 34-22 ATS in his career, the best mark of any coach with at least 15 games to begin his career in the Super Bowl era.
- The Lions have only been 7-point favorites against the Packers twice in the last 40 seasons (-7.5 in 2017, -10 in 1992).
- Detroit has covered four straight meetings and is 11-2 ATS against the Packers since 2017.
- The Lions are 11-1 ATS in their past 12 division games (did not cover vs. Bears last week).
- The Lions are 7-3 ATS this season, tied for the best record in the NFL.
- The Packers are 17-8 ATS as underdogs under Matt LaFleur (14-11 outright).
- Unders are 5-1 in the Packers’ past six games.
Trends Per ESPN
4:30PM Kickoff Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys (-11)
- The Commanders are 6-1 ATS as underdogs, including 5-0 ATS as road underdogs –
- The Commanders are 5-1 ATS on the road.
- The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS at home and 7-1 ATS as favorites.
- The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their past five games.
Trends Per ESPN
8:20PM Kickoff San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (+7)
- The 49ers are 1-4 ATS in their past five games.
- Brock Purdy will be favored in his 16th straight regular-season start to begin his career, one game shy of Roger Staubach for the longest streak to begin a career in the Super Bowl era.
- Home underdogs of at least 6.5 points are 9-1-1 ATS and 6-5 outright this season.
- Home underdogs of at least seven points are 8-1-1 ATS this season (5-5 outright).
- Pete Carroll is 17-9 ATS against the 49ers, and 19-8 ATS as a home underdog –
- Prime-time unders are 27-8 this season (.771). They are 150-93-4 in the past five seasons (.617).j
Listen to the OverUnder Podcast for Thanksgiving Game discussion
Joe Murray has worked behind the scenes and on-air in New England since 2007. Murray was born and raised in Boston (Hyde Park) and is now living on the North Shore in Peabody. A graduate of CSB School of Broadcasting, Joe was hired at 98.5 The Sports Hub in 2011 and is the host of Patriots Postgame and the Over/Under Podcast with Dan Lifshatz. Joe was hired as the full-time night show host in 2023, and a featured guest for “The Weekly Spread” on NBC Sports Boston during football season. Joe writes about all New England sports from Patriots football to Boston Celtics and Boston Bruins.