Red Sox lock up starter Brayan Bello for the long-term
The Boston Red Sox are making a long-term commitment to talented young starting pitcher Brayan Bello.
As first reported by ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel, Bello and the Red Sox are in agreement on a six-year contract extension worth $55 million. The deal includes a team option for a seventh year worth $21 million.
At an AAV of about $9.2 million over the first six years, Bello’s new contract has a chance to be a steal for the Red Sox. The 24-year-old has flashed with his mid-90s fastball and sinker/changeup mix. His sinker helped him generate groundballs at a 56.3 percent rate, which ranked in the 92nd percentile in 2023, according to Baseball Savant.
ARLINGTON, TEXAS – SEPTEMBER 20: Brayan Bello #66 of the Boston Red Sox pitches in the first inning against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field on September 20, 2023 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tim Heitman/Getty Images)
Despite keeping the ball on the ground, Bello could stand to improve upon a hard-hit percentage of 44.3, which was only in the 13th percentile. He could also look to generate more swings and misses with his fastball and off-speed pitches after ranking in the 37th percentile in “whiff percentage” (24.4).
If Bello can up his strikeouts and generate more weak grounders with his sinker, he could become a true top-of-the-rotation force for the Red Sox. His run from May to June last year, when he posted a 2.37 ERA with 53 strikeouts in 60.2 innings, showcased his big potential.
And if he reaches that ceiling – or even if he can be a good No. 2 starter – his contract would make him a bargain.
MORE: Red Sox add another former All-Star to the mix
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Matt Dolloff is a writer and podcaster for 985TheSportsHub.com. Any opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of 98.5 The Sports Hub, Beasley Media Group, or any subsidiaries. Check out all of Matt’s content.
Milliken: 7 names making noise for the Red Sox this spring
3. Justin Slaten (8.0 OppQual)
Feb 20, 2024; Lee County, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Justin Slaten (63) poses for a photo during media day at JetBlue Park. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
Heading into spring training, it felt like there was a showdown for the last bullpen spot between Justin Slaten and Bryan Mata. Both need to be on the Opening Day roster due to Slaten being a Rule 5 pick and Mata being completely out of options. But with Mata suffering a hamstring strain, he’s fallen behind and Slaten has run with the opportunity.
In 3 outings, Slaten hasn’t given up a run and has racked up 3 strikeouts without a walk. He did allow two baserunners in his first outing thanks to a hit by pitch and a single, but since then he’s harnessed his control. Alex Cora made it a point that he wanted to see Slaten throw strikes this spring and so far he’s done a great job of that.
Another big thing for Slaten is that he’s a Breslow guy. The Red Sox were gushing over him this winter when he came over from the Mets for Ryan Ammons and cash considerations. Mata doesn’t have that working in his favor, since he’s been in the organization for nearly a decade with more injuries than anyone can remember.
4. Ceddanne Rafaela (8.3 OppQual)
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – AUGUST 30: Ceddanne Rafaela #43 of the Boston Red Sox hits an RBI double during the sixth inning against the Houston Astros at Fenway Park on August 30, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Paul Rutherford/Getty Images)
On the first day of spring training, Cora made headlines by saying Ceddanne Rafaela would have a shot at the starting center fielder job. So far, he’s showing that he deserves to be in Seattle on Opening Day. It’s not about just the numbers either, but the decisions he’s making at the plate.
Rafaela is 4-for-11 with a double, which is a nice sign, but what catches my eye is that he has walked (4) more than he’s struckout (3). Just looking at this at-bat from yesterday’s game against the Tigers, it’s clear he’s spitting on pitches that are right outside the strike zone. If he can sustain that approach, it should stop him from getting exposed like he did in September last season.
As usual, Rafaela has also impressed defensively with a couple nice plays in center field. On the basepaths, he’s been extremely aggressive with 2 steals and 1 caught stealing. He’d only have one stolen base if it wasn’t for a nifty slide against the Cardinals, which is something to keep an eye since he was getting thrown out a lot at AAA last year, but this is the type of athleticism the Red Sox have been yearning for.
Chris Murphy (OppQual 8.2)
Jul 30, 2023; San Francisco, California, USA; Boston Red Sox pitcher Chris Murphy (72) delivers a pitch against the San Francisco Giants during the sixth inning at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports
Chris Murphy has a chance to be the best lefty in the Red Sox bullpen if he gets back to the arm we saw for a majority of last summer. He’s faced good competition this spring and hasn’t given up any runs in 4 innings of work. That includes 4 strikeouts and no walks, which is what you’re hoping for with the stuff he offers from the left side.
Mark Contreras (OppQual 7.9)
If everything goes right, Mark Contreras will only be depth for the Red Sox, but he’s hit well to start the spring. He smoked a home run against Northeastern and then went deep again against the Orioles. That’s left him with an .855 OPS through 12 at-bats.
Connor Wong/Mark Kolozsvary/Tyler Heineman:
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – MAY 02: Connor Wong #12 of the Boston Red Sox celebrates in front of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. #27 of the Toronto Blue Jays after hitting a home run during the sixth inning at Fenway Park on May 02, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
I’m going to combine these three since they all factor into the catching situation. Connor Wong finally returns to the defensive side of things today after dealing with elbow soreness and a bruised knuckle. Even with those nagging issues, he’s swung the bat well going 3-for-7 with a double in 3 games.
Mark Kolozsvary and Tyler Heineman have both been red hot against solid competition, which is nice considering they’re here for their defense. Cora didn’t commit to Reese McGuire as the back-up catcher at the start of camp, but it’s clear they still like him. Roberto Perez will factor into this conversation as well, especially since he finally made his spring debut yesterday.
