Is Triston Casas turning into one of the best first basemen in the sport? He’s on that trajectory after finishing 3rd in AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2023 with a 129 wRC+ and .856 OPS that led the entire Red Sox lineup (minimum 90 plate appearances). Matching Matt Olson’s production is no small task, but when diving into how the two first baseman performed in the second half, it’s hard to ignore the similarities.

In 54 games after the All-Star break, Casas turned himself into one of the most dangerous hitters in the big leagues with an insane .317/.417/.617/1.034 slash line. His OPS was the 4th-best mark amongst all hitters, only trailing the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Matt Olson, and Ronald Acuna Jr. Not to mention, his 176 wRC+ ranked him 6th in the entire game and his .433 wOBA was 5th-best.

Olson totaled 73 games over that stretch since he didn’t get shut down with a shoulder injury and that led to a monster .321/.428/.649/1.077 performance at the plate. From a batting average and on-base perspective, it’s kind of scary how similar his numbers were to Casas. Yet, Olson launching 25 homers over that stretch took his stat line to a different level and was the reason he only trailed Shohei Ohtani in wRC+ and OPS.

Still, it feels like nothing short of an accomplishment for Casas to be keeping up with Olson, who will be appearing in his ninth big league season in 5 weeks. A major test for Casas in 2024 will be trying to replicate that second half production over the course of a full season. If he does, it won’t be long before he has a bunch of MVP votes like Olson (2019, 2021, 2023).

Even with Casas having a miserable April in 2023, it’s easy to see the similarities with Olson’s Statcast data. Both obliterate the baseball (Average Exit Velo, 77th percentile vs. 99th percentile), aren’t big batting average guys (xBA, 47th percentile vs. 67th percentile), rack up their fair share of strikeouts (K%, 29th percentile vs. 40th percentile) and whiffs (Whiff%, 33rd percentile vs. 30th percentile), but also walk a ton (BB%, 93rd percentile vs. 95th percentile). That also includes Casas finishing in the 92nd percentile for wOBA and Olson being in the 96th percentile, with strong xSLG (88th percentile vs. 97th percentile) and Barrel% (86th percentile vs. 96th percentile) marks.

• Tyler Milliken ⚾️ on Twitter: "Final Triston Casas (left) and Matt Olson (right) comp for 2023. pic.twitter.com/0AKvb1TCsG / Twitter"

  Final Triston Casas (left) and Matt Olson (right) comp for 2023. pic.twitter.com/0AKvb1TCsG

  It’s clear that a majority of Olson’s data resembles a fully realized version of the player Casas was in 2023. That’s not shocking at all, especially when you examine what Olson’s metrics looked like in his first full season. In 2018, Olson finished in the same percentile in terms of xBA and xSLG, with an almost identical chase rate.

  Olson has always had ridiculous exit velocities, but Casas made a point to work on that this offseason. It’s not like Casas was struggling in that department, but his makeup was always applauded throughout the minors because he wanted to be great. If he can improve on that front, it should only lead to more power than can put him in the same realm as Olson.

  Now, that’s a big jump for Casas to go from 24 homers in 132 games to Olson’s total of 54 in 162. But in 2018, 2021, and 2022, Olson ended up smoking between 29 to 39 homers. There have been some ridiculous power outliers like 2017 and 2024 for Olson, but there’s no reason to believe Casas won’t regularly club 30 homers a season moving forward.

  Defensively, Casas has his fair share of work to do. He finished in the 2nd percentile for Outs Above Average last season at -10. Defensive runs saved didn’t like him too much either, pegging him at -4, but Alex Cora has been very adamant about the strides he made late last season.

• Tyler Milliken ⚾️ on Twitter: "WHAT A PLAY BY RAFAEL DEVERS YO SAVE A RUN! AND HELL OF A PICK BY TRISTON CASAS! pic.twitter.com/VOLHqhRj8C / Twitter"

  WHAT A PLAY BY RAFAEL DEVERS YO SAVE A RUN! AND HELL OF A PICK BY TRISTON CASAS! pic.twitter.com/VOLHqhRj8C

  Now, Matt Olson is a 2-time Gold Glove winner and despite Outs Above Average not loving him in 2023, he’s one of the best at the position. Last season, he was tied for his second-best mark in defensive runs saved with 8 total. Since debuting in 2016, Olson has never posted a negative DRS total in any season, with his career-high being 12 in 2019.

  It’s fair to wonder if Casas can reach that type of ceiling, but I push back heavily against those who think he’s going to be a massive liability for years to come. After struggling early in 2023, he admitted that his offensive struggles impacted him defensively as well, which was only worsened by Kike Hernandez being the worst glove in baseball. The belief was always that he could at least be average at that position, so I expect him to reach that ceiling sooner rather than later.

  One portion of Olson’s game that stood out to me was his durability. He’s only 29, but has played 4 seasons where he appeared in EVERY single game. That doesn’t include a 156-game season in there as well, which is huge when helping anchor a team’s infield defense.

  Red Sox fans know better than anyone what a revolving door at first base can do to a team. Now, Casas isn’t injury prone by any means but he’s been banged up a few times the last couple of seasons. Dating back to 2022, a high-ankle sprain delayed his big league debut by at least a few months, then a knee injury kept him out of winter ball following his first taste of big league action, before he went down with right-shoulder inflammation in September.

• Tyler Milliken ⚾️ on Twitter: "All 24 homers hit by Triston Casas in 2023.Looking forward to 30+ next season. pic.twitter.com/Wz44kf6V0e / Twitter"

  All 24 homers hit by Triston Casas in 2023.Looking forward to 30+ next season. pic.twitter.com/Wz44kf6V0e

  If anything, it’s just essential for the Red Sox to keep Casas as healthy as possible. That should be a focus with some at-bats now opening up at DH. Can’t afford to have arguably your best hitter missing chunks of time with the current state of the roster.

  So, does this mean Casas will immediately be Olson starting in 2024? Not quite, but he’s showing a similar skillset that was able to reach Olson heights down the stretch in 2023. That’s exactly why the Red Sox are trying to lock into an extension, because they know he’s going to be terrorizing pitchers for the next decade.

  While I do think extending Casas should be a priority, it won’t be an easy task. He carries a ton of confidence and won’t settle out of fear of falling off or not being able to replicate his rookie season. The scary thing is, while it won’t be cheap to lock down some free agent years right now, it’s only going to get worse if his second-half was just a preview of his 2024.

  Of course there is risk in any deal and only so much projection for a first baseman, but the Red Sox waited for years on Casas because they believed in his bat. It’s clear 2023 only strengthened that belief and beyond all the on the field stuff, he’s blossoming into a leader and arguably the next face of the franchise. He attended every offseason camp the Red Sox held, along with a number of events for fans and the community.

• Tyler Milliken ⚾️ on Twitter: "One year from now, Triston Casas will be talked about as one of the best hitters in the sport and you're going to be wishing you paid him.Most predictable thing ever.Even off the field, he's constantly stepping up as one of the leaders this team needs.pic.twitter.com/Wz44kf6V0e / Twitter"

  One year from now, Triston Casas will be talked about as one of the best hitters in the sport and you're going to be wishing you paid him.Most predictable thing ever.Even off the field, he's constantly stepping up as one of the leaders this team needs.pic.twitter.com/Wz44kf6V0e

  Cora said it himself, these are the type of guys you want to keep around in Boston. So, what would that look like? There isn’t an easy comp for Casas like Bello and Spencer Strider or Hunter Greene, but based on his comments about wanting to be in Boston forever, I feel like he’s looking for some real length with this deal.

  Olson signed an 8-year, $168 MM deal with the Braves just 2 years out of free agency in 2022. That topped Freddie Freeman’s extension with the organization in 2014, which was 8-years, $135 MM back in 2014. Keep in mind, Freeman had already played 3 full seasons at that point, was 3 years away from free agency, and had a 5th-place finish in MVP voting.

  Casas won’t be a free agent until 2029, so he’s not in the same position. MLB Trade Rumors proposed the Ke’Bryan Hayes (8 years, $70 MM) extension as a potential starting point, but I think he’d come in above that. I wonder if something like 9 years, $118 MM would get it done, but that would leave him hitting free agency at 33, instead of 31 like Freeman did.

  Either way, the Red Sox should be going back and forth with him until Opening Day starts. Not only is he performing already at the highest level, but his path already resembles one of the best first baseman in today’s game. If you want to be like the Braves and lock up young stars early, it takes some risk on your end as well, and that’s where the Red Sox need to show the conviction they’ve been lacking in recent years.

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