Spring training kicks off in less than two weeks for the Red Sox, which means it’s time to dive into the 2024 lineup. It’s not the easiest sight right now, especially with the club’s best right-handed bat in Justin Turner departing for the Blue Jays this week. But clearly this lineup is going to need to produce with the current state of the starting rotation.
In 2023, the Red Sox lineup finished 8th in runs (772), 6th in batting average (.258), and 18th in home runs (182). That led to a wRC+ of 99, which sandwiched them right between the Mets and Reds for the 16th-best mark in the sport. Overall, a pretty solid performance for a group that fell through the floor in the final weeks of the season.
September was miserable as injuries, falling out of the playoff race, and playing younger guys tanked the offense across the boards. It led to a 72 wRC+ over that stretch, which was the second-worst mark in baseball. The only team worse was the White Sox at 65, who had been in the cellar for months and sold heavily at the trade deadline.
So, I think it’s fair to look at those first 5 months where the Red Sox were 12th-best in OPS as a better indication of their talent level. That would usually provide some hope for 2024, but I can’t look at Turner leaving and not see a major loss without a proper replacement. He was second on the team in RBI, third in homers, and third in wRC+ (minimum 400 PAs).
Add in the fact that the Red Sox are already lefty heavy, and it was clear how much Turner balanced the group. Just looking deeper into his 2023 season, his numbers were even better (124 wRC+) before suffering a bad heel bruise on August 1st. There was a reason Alex Cora trusted him as Rafael Devers’ protection in the lineup.
Even with how frustrating this offseason has been, I expect another right-handed bat to be added to the mix. I’d love to dream on the likes of Jorge Soler coming to Fenway Park and smoking 30-40 homers over the Green Monster, but recent reports are pointing to Adam Duvall, Tommy Pham, or Garrett Cooper being more their speed. Duvall or Pham give Craig Breslow another outfield option to meet his vision of a rotating DH, with Cooper offering another pathway of spelling Casas at 1B and crushing lefties.
Truth is, if there’s one thing this offseason has taught Red Sox fans, it’s not to bank on any potential move happening. Even if they make all the sense in the world (hello, Jordan Montgomery). So, let’s dive into bats Cora currently has at his disposal and how they fit together.
FYI: All projections come from Steamer.
1. Jarren Duran
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – JUNE 19: Jarren Duran #16 of the Boston Red Sox hits a double in the first inning against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field on June 19, 2023 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)
125 Games – 563 PA – .257/.322/.422/.744 – 14 HR – 32 2B – 57 RBI – 98 wRC
I don’t love the idea of two lefties back-to-back at the top of the lineup, but it feels like Duran slots in best with the current group of guys. From June 18th until August 10th last season, he filled that role before being moved down due to a cold streak in the middle of August. His injured toe didn’t give him a chance to get back on track, but considering the Red Sox were at their best last season with him in the leadoff spot, it should be his job to lose.
It’s hard to expect him to accumulate a .319/.356/.567/.923 slash line again while batting first, but he doesn’t need to be an alien to be a serviceable leadoff guy. His athleticism alone allows him to turn singles and walks into doubles in the blink of an eye. If he can do that on a regular basis, it should create plenty of opportunities early in games for the best bats in the lineup.
2. Rafael Devers
BOSTON, MA – OCTOBER 3: Rafael Devers #11 of the Boston Red Sox follows through on the go ahead RBI sacrifice fly during the seventh inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Fenway Park on October 3, 2022 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo By Winslow Townson/Getty Images)
150 Games – 672 PA – .285/.359/.532/.892 – 36 HR – 38 2B – 103 RBI – 134 wRC+
In 2023, the #2 spot in the lineup was the most productive part of the batting order for the first time in the Live Ball era. For a majority of teams, their best hitter is often penciled into that slot, whether you’re talking about Freddie Freeman and the Dodgers or Aaron Judge and the Yankees. From that point alone, Devers makes the most sense for the Red Sox to fill that role.
Beyond that, Devers has spent a majority of his career batting second, where he’s slashed .293/.353/.548/.900. Last season, Alex Cora was a bit back and forth with where Devers hit on a daily basis, bouncing him between hitting second and cleanup for different stretches. But in late August, Devers settled back into the #2 role and caught on fire in September with a 130 wRC+, so there’s no reason to fix something that isn’t broken.
3. Trevor Story
Trevor Story of the Boston Red Sox drives in a run against the Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards on Sept. 10, 2022. (Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
146 Games – 623 PA – .233/.304/.406/.710 – 21 HR – 32 2B – 74 RBI – 88 wRC+
I’ll make it simple, Trevor Story batting third for the Red Sox is a scary place to be. That’s no disrespect to him either, but considering Turner held down this role for a majority of 2023, it’s unfair to put those types of expectations on him. He was a mess offensively last season after returning from his internal bracing procedure, where he put together a miserable batting line of .203/.250/.316/.566 with a 48 wRC+.
That type of production wouldn’t be enough to fill the 9th spot in the lineup, but here we are hoping Story is ready for a massive bounce back (Pete Fatse thinks so). At the bare minimum, I expect him to be the league-average bat he was in 2022, but the Red Sox will need more production from him if they hope to make some noise this season. I expect whatever outside addition they bring in will help fill this spot at least on a part-time basis, but it’s clear this team has a real hole in the lineup right now.
4. Triston Casas
BOSTON, MA – JULY 26: Triston Casas #36 of the Boston Red Sox celebrates his home run against the Atlanta Braves during the seventh inning at Fenway Park on July 26, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo By Winslow Townson/Getty Images)
143 Games – 614 PA – .259/.370/.488/.858 – 29 HR – 27 2B – 88 RBI – 130 wRC+
All aboard the Casas hype train. Even after a miserable start to his rookie season, he showed all of baseball he’s going to be a middle of the order threat for years to come. From May 1st through the end of 2023, he registered the 11th-best wRC+ (145) in all of baseball (minimum 400 PAs).
Hard not to be excited about a 24-year-old first baseman that is hitting at a similar pace to Bryce Harper and Luis Robert for 5 months. Wouldn’t shock me one bit if we’re talking about Casas as the best hitter on the Red Sox in a few months. It might even be a fair question now with his 131 wRC+ and .850 OPS leading the team last year.
5. Tyler O’Neill
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – APRIL 23: Tyler O’Neill #27 of the St. Louis Cardinals at bat against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on April 23, 2023 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
126 Games – 522 PA – .247/.327/.433/.760 – 21 HR – 23 2B – 67 RBI – 105 wRC+
If O’Neill can resemble anything close to his 2021 form (8th in NL MVP voting), the Red Sox offense will have nothing to worry about. Problem is, he hasn’t done that the last two seasons and this lineup needs an impact bat from the right side. Feels like he has a chance to fulfill a similar role to 2021 Hunter Renfroe and 2023 Adam Duvall.
Something to keep in mind with O’Neill in 2024 is the trade deadline. Unless the Red Sox are surprising people in a big way, he’ll likely be shipped out to get value back before he walks. Seeing him return to his peak form has a chance to help the team this season and possibly in the future.
6. Masataka Yoshida
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – MAY 14: Masataka Yoshida #7 of the Boston Red Sox hits the ball in the 5th inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Fenway Park on May 14, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Gaelen Morse/Getty Images)
131 Games – 557 PA – .291/.361/.460/.822 – 17 HR – 28 2B – 73 RBI – 120 wRC+
I put some thought into Yoshida in the leadoff spot, but after Cora avoided it completely in his rookie season, this felt like a safer bet. It was a fine first season for him in the big leagues as he posted a 109 wRC+, but his drastic falloff in the second half has some believing it’s only downhill from here. I just have a hard time believing his first half was a fluke after he hit .316/.382/.492/.874 against pitching he had never seen before.
Surprise, he wore down just like the Red Sox predicted after playing in the World Baseball Classic and adjusting to a new playing/traveling schedule. One fair concern is his habit of not lifting the ball, which was obvious with the 6th-highest ground ball percentage and 3rd-lowest launch angle in the game. If Fatse can help him keep the ball off the ground a bit more, he has a chance to be a 120 wRC+ type of bat, but if he can’t those 2023 numbers will likely become the norm.
7. Vaughn Grissom
Aug 10, 2022; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Atlanta Braves shortstop Vaughn Grissom (18) hits a two run home run against the Boston Red Sox in the seventh inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
123 Games – 479 PA – .285/.354/.424/.728 – 9 HR – 26 2B – 54 RBI – 110 wRC+
Grissom has been handed the keys to an everyday role in the big leagues after tearing up Triple-A in 2023. He was lighting up box scores in Gwinnett with a slash line of .330/.419/.501/.921 in 102 games, which included 45 doubles (Stripers record) and 8 homers. It’s hard to expect a ton of offensive production from him right off the bat, but hitting this low in the lineup should let him get his feet wet at the highest level again.
During the short stretches Grissom was in the big leagues last season, he hit for average (.280) but failed to offer anything in terms of on-base skills and power. That wasn’t the case when he debuted in 2022 though, when he put together a .291/.353/.440/.792 line with 5 homers in 41 games after jumping directly from Double-A. If Grissom looks anything like that in 2024, he’ll have a chance to be the best right-handed bat on the team.
8. Wilyer Abreu
HOUSTON, TEXAS – AUGUST 24: Wilyer Abreu #52 of the Boston Red Sox hits a one run single in the eighth inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park on August 24, 2023 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images)
105 Games – 421 PA – .244/.343/.415/.758 – 13 HR – 19 2B – 49 RBI – 105 wRC+
Don’t count me in the camp of being worried about replacing Alex Verdugo’s production. Abreu’s stock skyrocketed after he mashed to a .316/.388/.474/.862 tune in 28 games for the Red Sox down the stretch. That included a mature feel for the strike zone (10.6% BB%) that seemed to catch the eyes of a lot of people in the organization, including Cora.
Tom Werner spewed plenty of crap during Winter Weekend, but he made it clear that he expects Abreu to get 400 at-bats. Considering the way the Red Sox are operating right now, this is a perfect chance to see if he can establish himself as part of the long-term core. His power and patience fits perfectly behind Grissom and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see him eventually flipped with Yoshida.
9. Connor Wong
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – MAY 02: Connor Wong #12 of the Boston Red Sox celebrates in front of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. #27 of the Toronto Blue Jays after hitting a home run during the sixth inning at Fenway Park on May 02, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
75 Games – 286 PA – .235/.290/.393/.683 – 8 HR – 15 2B – 32 RBI – 80 wRC+
Wong just makes too much sense in the #9 spot with his bat projected to be the weakest in the lineup and some sneaky speed. The bar is so low at catcher that a 78 wRC+ is passable at this point, especially with Wong’s cannon behind the plate (5 caught stealing above average). Cutting down on strikeouts will be a major task for him in 2024 after posting a 33.3% K% last season.
In all reality, Wong is playing to prove he’s the back-up catcher of the future. The Red Sox have made it clear they love his receiving skills and how he works with the pitchers, so he just needs to show enough life with the bat. Feels like he has a chance to be the perfect partner for Kyle Teel once he finally reaches majors.
