This is turning the NFL into the new NBA
The National Football League has a problem. There are few strategies to win the Super Bowl other than “Having Patrick Mahomes.”
It’s nothing new that quarterback is the most important position in sports, and that the great ones win it all, repeatedly, and that it’s hard to overcome not having that player. But more and more, the NFL is becoming more like the NBA, in that the potential champions have shrunk to no more than a tiny half-handful of teams.
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Now that Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs won back-to-back Super Bowls, it’s hard to envision anyone else stepping up to challenge them. Mahomes beat Jalen Hurts in Super Bowl LVII, then in 2023 blew through Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson before predictably outclassing Brock Purdy in Super Bowl LVIII.
Feb 11, 2024; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) celebrates after defeating the San Francisco 49ers in overtime of Super Bowl LVIII at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
The idea that a more complete team with a lesser quarterback – which the 49ers and Eagles arguably were in each game – is now laughable. The idea that you could get a 2007 Giants, a 2013 Seahawks, a 2017 Eagles, even a 2021 Rams, these days, is a foggy memory.
Joe Burrow has upstaged Mahomes in the playoffs before, and wasn’t in his way this time as he recovers from a season-ending wrist injury. But, that’s great. Anyone other than the Chiefs and Bengals can’t feel great about their Super Bowl chances. They don’t have Mahomes or Burrow. What do you want them to do?
The NFL’s quest for parity went poof as soon as Tom Brady and the Patriots took over the league. But even they won in 2001 with a balanced team and a game-managing quarterback, and Brady came up short in Super Bowls against better overall teams. It mostly felt right when they won, and when they lost.
This is a different league. And it just doesn’t feel right.
Because this article is being written from New England by a native New Englander, this column might be just dismissed in other parts of the country. But this isn’t anything against Mahomes, a transcendent athlete worthy of admiration and appreciation. It’s the idea that only the Chiefs and perhaps a very select few other teams even have a shot at the Super Bowl every year, and only because of who their quarterback is.
To quickly pivot back to the NBA: who would be surprised if the 2024 NBA Finals was Celtics-Nuggets? How many players other than Jayson Tatum and Nikola Jokić do you even give a chance to win? A few, I suppose. It’s become the same in the NFL, maybe even worse.
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – DECEMBER 17: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs and head coach Andy Reid of the Kansas City Chiefs walk onto the field prior to a game against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium on December 17, 2023 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
The Eagles and 49ers did most, if not all the right things to build a champion. Philadelphia, especially, had plenty going for them on both sides of the ball, and had Hurts playing winning football. San Fran had playmakers everywhere for Purdy, and the young, physically limited QB was making the most of it. They have arguably the two best, deepest defenses in the NFL. One would think they’d been getting good coaching.
Not good enough. None of it was good enough. Both hung around. But neither could keep up with Mahomes. That’s a terrifying thought for any team that isn’t Kansas City.
Outside of Missouri, there are other states that could feel better than most, because of their quarterbacks. There’s the aforementioned Ohio, where a healthy Burrow should have them squarely in Super Bowl contention in 2024. In New York, the Bills have Allen and the Jets could be getting Aaron Rodgers back.
California should feel pretty good, with Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh joining forces in Los Angeles. Maryland’s still got Jackson. Pennsylvania’s still got Hurts. Texas has a lot of hope in C.J. Stroud.
CINCINNATI, OHIO – NOVEMBER 12: C.J. Stroud #7 of the Houston Texans runs for a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium on November 12, 2023 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
These teams should feel fortunate to have figured out that most important piece. Even then, how many of these guys will ever do enough to beat Mahomes? But those are the guys you’d expect to be able to do it. Possibly the only ones.
And yet, once you really whittle it down, you’re looking at maybe 5-6 teams you could give a realistic shot at the Lombardi Trophy in 2024. You could make that declaration right now, and again in July, and again in September.
That’s the NFL we’ve got now. The new NBA. If you’re not one of the lucky ones, you better hope you get lucky and land an elite quarterback of your own. Otherwise, see ya never.
Ranking the top-10 free-agent wide receivers of 2024
Free-agent wide receivers are about to have a great year.
Starting off as one of the strongest receiver markets we’ve seen in years, the pool has shallowed a bit at the position, with arguably the top-2 names – Mike Evans and Tee Higgins – getting a new two-year deal and a franchise tag, respectively. But there are still some talented guys expected to cash in with receiver-needy teams.
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So, read below for our top-10 remaining free-agent wideouts. It’s still a list worth knowing…
1. Michael Pittman Jr.
INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA – DECEMBER 16: Michael Pittman Jr. #11 of the Indianapolis Colts catches a pass during the second quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Lucas Oil Stadium on December 16, 2023 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Pittman is more of an inside receiver than outside, but he’s better than that. His size and athleticism makes him more dangerous than your typical slot guy. Pittman racked up a career-best 109 catches and 1,152 yards in 2023, as he continued to be one of the league’s better separators with his route-running and footwork.
A reliable option over the middle of the field for any quarterback, Pittman would be an elite safety net with high-end production for whoever signs him.
2. Calvin Ridley
NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – JANUARY 07: Calvin Ridley #0 of the Jacksonville Jaguars celebrates a touchdown catch during the first half against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium on January 07, 2024 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Justin Ford/Getty Images)
Ridley quietly had an excellent return to the NFL after being suspended for all of 2022 for gambling violations. He played in all 17 games and amassed 76 catches, 1,016 yards, and eight touchdowns. He was productive and durable in an otherwise hit-or-miss season for Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars offense. Ridley has positioned himself to cash in and become the clear No. 1 wide receiver for a new club.
3. Gabriel Davis
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – JANUARY 23: Gabriel Davis #13 of the Buffalo Bills celebrates after scoring a 75 yard touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs during the fourth quarter in the AFC Divisional Playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium on January 23, 2022 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
Davis made just 45 catches last season, but really made a lot of them. Nobody comes up with a monster touchdown out of nowhere like Davis and Josh Allen. Davis averaged 16.6 yards per catch, which amazingly is not a career-high number.
One of the league’s best pure big-play receivers, Davis might work best as a complementary piece to a go-to No. 1 guy. But you know what you’re getting with him, which is a guy that can change the complexion of a game in an instant.
4. Marquise Brown
GLENDALE, ARIZONA – NOVEMBER 26: Marquise Brown #2 of the Arizona Cardinals catches a pass over Tre Tomlinson #6 of the Los Angeles Rams during the fourth quarter at State Farm Stadium on November 26, 2023 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)
Brown is a guy who has yet to really live up to his status as the first receiver drafted in a loaded 2019 class. But the talent’s there. Brown just hasn’t been in a great situation with either of his teams. He played with three different quarterbacks and still led all Cardinals wideouts with 51 catches and 574 yards, and led the team with five touchdowns.
The kid is explosive, and simply needs to land in a better situation. He’ll have a great chance to set himself up for success by picking his next stop.
5. Odell Beckham Jr.
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – NOVEMBER 16: Wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. #3 of the Baltimore Ravens runs with the ball after catching a pass against the Cincinnati Bengals in the fourth quarter at M&T Bank Stadium on November 16, 2023 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Amid the presence of Mark Andrews and the emergence of rookie Zay Flowers, Beckham was at best the third option for NFL MVP Lamar Jackson, who also siphons passing attempts off from himself with his running. So, Beckham was targeted only 64 times and made 35 catches on the season. But he caught them at an impressive 16.1-yard clip, an indication that OBJ is still capable of making explosive plays at age 31 after dealing with serious injuries.
Beckham may be something less than what he was in his Giants days, but he still seems to have plenty in the tank. He’ll be a fine addition for his next team, and may be able to provide great ROI.
6. D.J. Chark
CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – DECEMBER 24: DJ Chark Jr. #17 of the Carolina Panthers scores a touchdown to tie the game during the fourth quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Bank of America Stadium on December 24, 2023 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
Considering the situation he was in, with the Carolina Panthers and a struggling offense behind No. 1 pick Bryce Young, Chark had an impressive 2023. He averaged 15.0 yards per catch and caught five touchdowns, while operating as at best the No. 2 receiving option behind Adam Thielen.
Chark has proven himself as a capable outside receiver, if not a true No. 1. Anyone who wants to add a clear top-2 option at the position would do well with him.
7. Curtis Samuel
LANDOVER, MARYLAND – JANUARY 07: Curtis Samuel #4 of the Washington Commanders runs with the ball during the second quarter against the Dallas Cowboys at FedExField on January 07, 2024 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
Samuel is a slot receiver, but a pretty well-established one. He’s made 60-plus catches in two straight years for the Commanders, and he accomplished that without great quarterbacks or much of an offense going on around him. Samuel won’t make the kind of impact on a new team that the outside receivers on this list would. But if someone already has those guys and drops Samuel into the middle, that would make for a savvy signing.
8. Tyler Boyd
PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA – DECEMBER 23: Tyler Boyd #83 of the Cincinnati Bengals runs with the ball during the first quarter of a game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium on December 23, 2023 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images)
Boyd has long proven that he can be a productive inside receiver. His numbers have fluctuated a bit since the Bengals went to the Joe Burrow era, but Boyd has put together seasons with 60-plus catches and 800-plus yards both with and without him. Boyd has been at best the No. 3 option since the Bengals drafted Ja’Marr Chase, which would make him an intriguing addition to a team that could set him up to be a more prolific target.
9. Josh Reynolds
DETROIT, MICHIGAN – SEPTEMBER 17: Josh Reynolds #8 of the Detroit Lions celebrates a touchdown during the fourth quarter in the game against the Seattle Seahawks at Ford Field on September 17, 2023 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
Tough and dependable, Reynolds is unafraid to play over the middle of the field and comes up with big catches at opportune times. He caught five touchdowns for the Lions in 2023, and added one score in the playoffs. Reynolds is ultimately a complementary third or fourth receiver and is touchdown-dependent for fantasy teams. But for a team in need of a depth addition, Reynolds will make sense.
10. Kendrick Bourne
MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA – OCTOBER 29: Kendrick Bourne #84 of the New England Patriots runs after a catch for a touchdown during the first quarter against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on October 29, 2023 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
Bourne would rank higher on this list, if not for a torn ACL that cut his 2023 season short. He was on his way to another solid season, which is extra-impressive because he did it for an awful Patriots team that got bad quarterback play. Bourne made 37 catches for four touchdowns in just eight games for the league’s lowest-ranked offense. He’ll make a fine addition for a team in need of a “Z” receiver.
