Zolak & Bertrand: Should we be excited about Theo Epstein joining FSG?
On today’s Zolak & Bertrand, Zo was joined by Ryan Johnston and Tim McKone. In the wake of the news that Theo Epstein is joining the Fenway Sports Group as an adviser, the question becomes just how much (if at all) will this help the Boston Red Sox?
Light at the end of the tunnel?
RJ: This is this is why I’m excited about this. It’s not because I think Theo is going to come in and turn around the Red Sox, and help Craig Breslow, because this press release does not indicate that he has anything to do with the daily operations or helping to fine players or anything like that. What excites me about this is that this may be the light at the end of the tunnel, that John Henry’s ownership is coming to an end. That this starts the process here, that Theo comes in as a minority owner. Right. He kind of gets that on his resume and that he and Sam Kennedy, now they don’t have the money to buy the Red Sox. You would have to have, you know, mega billions to even consider buying buying the Fenway Sports Group.
Zolak: Yeah. You’re baseball teams at a critical juncture right now. There’s massive problems. And last thing you want to hear when you reintroduce Theo Epstein’s name back into the tale to the Boston market, is talk about your other sports that you’re invested in. I don’t want to hear about Liverpool. I don’t want to hear about the hockey team. I don’t want to hear about F1. I don’t wanna hear about Roush racing. I don’t want to hear about any of that. I don’t want to hear about LeBron.
LISTEN: Zolak & Bertrand react to Theo Epstein joining FSG as an adviser
Milliken: My Top 10 Red Sox Prospects
If one thing has become clear about the Red Sox this offseason, it’s that their eyes are set on the future and not the present. The likes of Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, and Kyle Teel represent the next wave for an organization that is seemingly okay with sitting in competitive purgatory until then. It’s another head-scratching public relations disaster for John Henry, Tom Werner, and Sam Kennedy, as they call the fanbase and countless journalists “liars” for questioning their commitment to winning.
Truth is, when you decide to cut payroll for the upcoming season and reiterate over and over again that you plan to spend down the line, that puts the spotlight on the farm system to accelerate that clock. The Big 3 of Mayer, Anthony, and Teel are forced to carry that torch more than anyone, but the need for an impact pipeline spreads well beyond that. Fortunately for the Red Sox, they’ve heavily emphasized building up prospect capital the last 4 years and it’s left them with a strong pool of position players.
At the end of 2023, Baseball America had a ton of praise for what the Red Sox had cooked up in the minor leagues. They ranked them the 5th-best organization in terms of minor league talent, even after Triston Casas graduated early in the season. Big shoutout to Roman Anthony for having the biggest year amongst minor leaguers outside of Jackson Holiday.
There were mixed reviews on how great the Red Sox farm system really was though, with MLB Pipeline ranking them the 16th-best in the game following the trade deadline. Fangraphs on the other hand seemed to match up a lot closer with Baseball America’s outlook, as they penciled them into their #3 spot. Since then, the Red Sox have moved up to #2 and are now sandwiched between the Cubs and Nationals.
Heading into 2024, the Red Sox have seen the same 4 names land on different Top 100 prospects lists, with the 3 names mentioned above leading the way. Ceddanne Rafaela has continued to bring up the caboose in that department. Miguel Bleis has even been shown some love as a name sitting right outside the Top 100 after missing most of 2023 due to shoulder surgery.
Just last week, former Red Sox Assistant GM Zack Scott gave a fascinating breakdown of the organization’s minor league talent. He labeled the Red Sox as having the 3rd-best group of positional players, but was much harsher on the pitching side of things with them being 29th-best. That somewhat explains the wide range of opinions on Boston’s farm system that have come out in the last year.
So, with the Red Sox farm system being the focus of the conversation right now, it feels like a good time to give my thoughts on the 10 best prospects in the system. Also, a huge thanks to SoxProspects.com, BaseballAmerica.com, and Hunter Noll for being great resources in this research.
1. Roman Anthony – OF
Tyler Milliken ⚾️ on Twitter: "5 minutes and 59 seconds of Roman Anthony turning himself into the #19 prospect in all of baseball.106 Games - 491 PA - A, A+, AA.272/.403/.466/.86914 HR, 27 2B, 4 3B24.2 K%17.5 BB%143 wRC+16/23 SB pic.twitter.com/tCuoFcH9Tf / Twitter"
5 minutes and 59 seconds of Roman Anthony turning himself into the #19 prospect in all of baseball.106 Games - 491 PA - A, A+, AA.272/.403/.466/.86914 HR, 27 2B, 4 3B24.2 K%17.5 BB%143 wRC+16/23 SB pic.twitter.com/tCuoFcH9Tf
Height: 6’2″ | Weight: 200 | B-T: L-R | Entering age-20 season
Nobody had a bigger year in the Red Sox system than Anthony in 2023 . He soared from Single-A to AA as a teenager, slashing .272/.403/.446/.869 with 14 homers, 27 doubles, and 4 triples in 106 games. You have to go back to Xander Bogaerts in 2012 to find the last Red Sox farmhand to do that.
It was special to see a high school draftee with such an advanced approach in his first full year of pro ball. Even during a slow start in Salem to start the season (.285 BABIP), he found a way to consistently reach base that resulted in a 17.5% BB% between each level. He also exceeded expectations in center field with some surprising speed, despite many envisioning him holding down a corner spot like Kyle Tucker one day.
Looking under the hood, it’s hard to look at Anthony and his 110 MPH Max Exit Velo and not see the highest offensive ceiling in the system. Just last night, Jim Callis was saying he sees a .280 bat that could smack 30 homers, which is a lethal combo considering his other tools. Even if he doesn’t reach his 90th percentile outcome, his floor is high enough that he could be an impact piece for years.
2. Marcelo Mayer – SS
Tyler Milliken ⚾️ on Twitter: "Since we found out Marcelo Mayer is fully healthy going into 2024, here's 4 minutes of highlights from him this past season. pic.twitter.com/FP4ft1H9Rm / Twitter"
Since we found out Marcelo Mayer is fully healthy going into 2024, here's 4 minutes of highlights from him this past season. pic.twitter.com/FP4ft1H9Rm
Height: 6’2″ | Weight: 188 | B-T: L-R | Entering age-21 season
For some, seeing Marcelo Mayer not holding down the #1 spot sends them into a fit about how he’s going to be a bust, but that’s not me. Mayer is coming off an up-and-down season that saw him reach new heights in the prospect world before a shoulder injury suffered on May 7th derailed his year. Still, he tore up High-A as he mashed .290/.366/.524/.890 (139 wRC+) before reaching Double-A and hitting a wall with a .189/.254/.355/.709 (63 wRC+) line over 43 games.
Mayer has his warts like any prospect, as he’s struggled against advanced breaking stuff. That includes a bit more swing-and-miss than some expected with a 25.8% K%. But between his injury and being one of the youngest players at the level, it’s hard to draw too many conclusions until we see him fully healthy again.
While some wondered if Mayer would move off of shortstop as his body filled out, he continues to look fluid over there. He was voted the Eastern League’s best defensive player at the position by opposing managers. His speed won’t shock you, but his first-step consistently makes up for it in the range department.
The injury Mayer played through was a left shoulder impingement, but he’s finally back to swinging and claims that he’ll be “full go” for spring training. There will be lots of eyes on him as looks to show he can handle Double-A pitching. Right now, I see him as Brandon Crawford with a higher ceiling at the plate, which might not fulfill those who dreamed of Corey Seager 2.0, but that would still make him a key part of this core for years to come.
3. Kyle Teel – C
Tyler Milliken ⚾️ on Twitter: "Kyle Teel. Athlete. pic.twitter.com/UrufvdNppO / Twitter"
Kyle Teel. Athlete. pic.twitter.com/UrufvdNppO
Height: 6’1″ | Weight: 190 | B-T: L-R | Entering age-22 season
Teel exploded onto the scene in 2023 after getting drafted 14th overall by the Red Sox, as he climbed from the Florida Complex League to AA. He tore up everything he saw at the plate, slashing .363/.483/.495/.977 across 26 games with 2 homers, 6 doubles, and 3 steals. Defensively, he looked the part as well, showing off a 1.9 second pop time to second base with plenty of arm.
Similar to what we’ve heard about Mayer’s leadership and ability to connect with teammates, Teel has received plenty of love in that department. Calling games is still a work in progress since he didn’t do that at Virginia, but it’s hard to envision that holding him back with his defensive skillset. In the power department, he’s never going to be a bopper, but I could see him putting up similar offensive numbers to a guy like Jason Kendall.
Despite Teel consistently coming behind Anthony and Mayer in the rankings, some believe he could beat both to the big leagues with all 3 slated for AA to start the season. It’s an intriguing blend of tools and athleticism, which isn’t easy to find with the benchmark for catching in the big leagues being so low. Feels like a guy made for Boston with the level of intensity he’s shown between college and pro ball.
4. Ceddanne Rafaela – OF/SS/2B
Tyler Milliken ⚾️ on Twitter: "Ceddanne Rafaela's first homer dinging off the coke bottles would've gone so hard.pic.twitter.com/FGI0qJIgxe / Twitter"
Ceddanne Rafaela's first homer dinging off the coke bottles would've gone so hard.pic.twitter.com/FGI0qJIgxe
Ht: 5’9″ | Wt: 152 | B-T: R-R | Entering age-23 season
Rafaela feels like one of the most controversial prospects in recent memory amongst Red Sox fans, with some thinking he could be a superstar because of his freaky athleticism and others seeing something that resembles Kevin Kiermaier. He started the year back in Double-A with a focus on changing his approach at the plate, but it left him caught in-between at the plate and he eventually resorted to his old ways. That led to a promotion to Triple-A where he went nuclear for 48 games, registering a .312/.370/.618/.988 line with 14 homers, 13 doubles, 3 triples, and 6 SB.
This paved the way for a brief stint in the big leagues in September that revealed each part of the Rafaela experience. While his quick-twitch athleticism flashed here and there, he still struggled while chasing pitches out of the zone (41.6% O-Swing%) and it resulted in plenty of weak contact. I don’t think there’s any doubt Rafaela could compete for a Gold Glove in center field right now, but he also blew a win against the Blue Jays with a bad read in the final weeks of the season.
While Rafaela will have the chance to compete for a spot on the 26-man roster at the start of spring training, it feels like they believe his development at the plate isn’t done. It wouldn’t shock me one bit to see him get a little more time in Worcester with the current logjam on the big league roster. At the end of 2023, he was spending some time working at second base as well, so it might be smart to get him some more reps there.
For a Red Sox team that badly needs to improve their defense, Rafaela could be at the center of that. Plus with so many left-handed bats being in the mix, he offers a nice change of pace. I know many fans want to compare him to Mookie Betts because they look similar from a swing perspective and glide in the outfield, but the comparisons end there.
Moving forward, Rafaela needs to focus on attacking the right pitches. If he can improve on that front, there’s a potential 20/20 player that will be making Spiderman catches in the outfield on a nightly basis. Otherwise, it’s much closer to a utility profile where the bat will consistently be streaky.
5. Miguel Bleis – OF
Tyler Milliken ⚾️ on Twitter: "Miguel Bleis getting some swings in after missing most of 2023 due to shoulder surgery.He's currently ranked as the #5 prospect in the Red Sox system, per @SoxProspects.Back in spring training, Bleis said his goal is to become a similar player to Ronald Acuna Jr. pic.twitter.com/88kAD2HRCB / Twitter"
Miguel Bleis getting some swings in after missing most of 2023 due to shoulder surgery.He's currently ranked as the #5 prospect in the Red Sox system, per @SoxProspects.Back in spring training, Bleis said his goal is to become a similar player to Ronald Acuna Jr. pic.twitter.com/88kAD2HRCB
Height: 6’0″ | Weight: 170 | B-T: R-R | Entering age-20 season
Last spring training, Miguel Bleis felt like one of those prospects who had a rocket attached to him. He was landing on different Top 100 lists with his highest ranking coming in at #20 on Fangraph’s big board. MLB Pipeline had him as their breakout prospect for the Red Sox farm system and doubled down on it again this past year.
Bleis played a total of 19 games in Salem and it wasn’t pretty. He initially scuffled and then suffered a left shoulder strain at the end of May that resulted in season-ending surgery to fix a subluxation. Not much to learn from a .230/.282/.325/.607 line and just 1 homer in his first taste of affiliated ball.
Still, Bleis’ ceiling is as high as any prospect in the system, with his sights set on being Ronald Acuna Jr. 2.0. Yet, he doesn’t carry the same floor as someone like Roman Anthony and is now coming off a serious shoulder surgery. Just hard to ignore 5-tool potential with electric bat speed and unrivaled athleticism on this list.
I thought hard about putting Bleis in the #4 spot because I think we finally see him breakout in 2024. If he makes the jump many expected a year ago, he’ll easily be viewed in the Top 50 prospect stratosphere without hesitation. It already looks like he’s taking steps toward that with the swings he’s been posting on Instagram.
6. Wilyer Abreu – OF
Tyler Milliken ⚾️ on Twitter: "WILYER ABREU WITH HIS FIRST FENWAY HOMER!Need him in the lineup every single day. pic.twitter.com/QEQJqe2FDo / Twitter"
WILYER ABREU WITH HIS FIRST FENWAY HOMER!Need him in the lineup every single day. pic.twitter.com/QEQJqe2FDo
Height: 5’10” | Weight: 217 | B-T: L-L | Entering age-25 season
If you’ve followed my Twitter/X over the last 12 months, you’ll see I’m at the front of the Abreu fan club. His stock skyrocketed after making his big league debut at the end of August with an advanced plate approach and some impressive power from the left side. It led to him accumulating a batting line of .316/.388/.474/.862 with 2 homers, 6 doubles, and a 135 wRC+.
Abreu also appeared in all 3 outfield spots in the big leagues. It was definitely pushing it a bit in center field, but he posted 2 defensive runs saved over that stretch. (3 in LF, -1 CF, 0 RF). Alex Cora made it clear that he was impressed by the former Astros’ prospect and Tom Werner recently said that he expects him to get 400+ at-bats in 2024.
It wouldn’t shock me if Abreu can be more valuable to the Red Sox than Alex Verdugo was in 2023. He’s shown more upside with the bat thanks to a 49% hard-hit rate that ranked second amongst Red Sox big leaguers (minimum 50 at-bats) last season. Replicating Verdugo’s Gold Glove nomination in his first full year won’t be a small task, but the lefty slugger has a cannon out there with Baseball America grading his arm as a 70 on the 20-80 scale.
Nobody is looking at Abreu like he has the ceiling of Anthony or Bleis, but it’s a profile that has a chance to be a strong platoon bat with some everyday outfielder upside. Maybe a Jay Bruce type profile with a little less power. There’s a real chance for him to establish himself as a part of this core with a big 2024.
7. Yoeilin Cespedes – SS
Tyler Milliken ⚾️ on Twitter: "Yoeilin Cespedes is the next Red Sox prospect to soar through the rankings.He's crushed the DSL this year. 46 Games - .346/.392/.560/.953 - 6 HR - 15 2B - 4 3B - 24/14 K/BB.Currently ranked #15 by @SoxProspects. pic.twitter.com/DZeT6Brx1Q / Twitter"
Yoeilin Cespedes is the next Red Sox prospect to soar through the rankings.He's crushed the DSL this year. 46 Games - .346/.392/.560/.953 - 6 HR - 15 2B - 4 3B - 24/14 K/BB.Currently ranked #15 by @SoxProspects. pic.twitter.com/DZeT6Brx1Q
Height: 5’9″ | Weight: 181 | B-T: R-R | Entering age-18 season
Probably my most aggressive ranking on this list, but I’m confident Cespedes will be the latest international signing ($1.4 MM, 2023) to surge to the top of the Red Sox farm system. Especially with Alex Speier dropping this line on him last summer, “Cespedes looks like one of the top-hitting prospects to come through the organization’s academy since Rafael Devers a decade ago.” That’s what happens when you’re posting 90th percentile exit velocities and maxing out at 107 MPH.
Across 46 games in the Dominican Summer League, Cespedes slashed .346/.392/.560/.953 with 6 homers for a 145 wRC+. That left him third in batting average, fifth in slugging percentage, and first in line-drive rate at 28.1% (minimum 200 PAs). He was also tough to strike out with a measly 11.6% K%.
Cespedes’ defensive home is definitely a question because of his lack of range, but he held his own at shortstop with 7 errors in 139 chances (294 innings). Third base or second base might make more sense as he works his way up through the minors. Still, the Red Sox are going to let the 2023 Latin Program Position Player of the Year stick there as long as he keeps progressing.
Cespedes has mentioned looking up to Xander Bogaerts and idolizing him as a kid. He’s expected to start 2024 in the Florida Complex League, but could reach affiliated ball in his age-18 season just like Bogaerts did with a promotion. Something to keep an eye on as the next wave after Mayer, Teel, and Anthony starts to form.
8. Wikelman Gonzalez – SP
Tyler Milliken ⚾️ on Twitter: "Wikelman Gonzalez dating back to May 1st: 10 Starts - 49.1 IP2.55 ERA/2.96 FIP15.1 K/94.4 BB/90.7 HR/9.175 BAAGetting those walks down is going to be big, but he's been carving up High-A for the last 2 months. Ridiculous K/9. pic.twitter.com/ZP3ZpIGr4z / Twitter"
Wikelman Gonzalez dating back to May 1st: 10 Starts - 49.1 IP2.55 ERA/2.96 FIP15.1 K/94.4 BB/90.7 HR/9.175 BAAGetting those walks down is going to be big, but he's been carving up High-A for the last 2 months. Ridiculous K/9. pic.twitter.com/ZP3ZpIGr4z
Height: 6’0″ | Weight: 167 | B-T: R-R | Entering age-22 season
Gonzalez has to be smiling ear to ear with the new pitching pipeline being brought in. He led all of the minors last season with a 35.2% K% (minimum 100 IP), as he really found himself after a rough start to 2023. Throwing strikes became a major problem for him, so the Red Sox approached him about changing the way he went about his work between starts.
It had become clear the mental rigors of baseball were catching up to him. So, they worked with him to help eliminate the sleep and eating issues he was having between starts. That lit the match for a strong finish to the year, as he posted a 2.98 ERA/3.10 FIP across 11 starts at High-A and then 10 more at Double-A.
There is one clear concern for Gonzalez and it comes down to improving his command/control. While his stuff is nasty and lasts deep into his starts, he needs to cut down on the 12.7% BB% over that stretch. At the bare minimum, he projects to be a late-inning reliever, but with the potential for 3 average or better pitches between his fastball, curveball, and changeup, this is a big chance to develop another starting pitcher.
Even after a strong finish to AA in 2023, Gonzalez is set to start 2024 there. It’s hard to see him having the same type of success in Triple-A unless he starts attacking the strike zone more. But he was added to the 40-man roster this offseason, which means he’ll be at the doorsteps of making his debut sooner rather than later.
Last season, Gonzalez implemented a cutter that helped him against lefties. I’m curious to see what the plan is for him this spring with a massive year in his development coming up. Another intriguing project for the likes of Justin Willard, Andrew Bailey, Kyle Boddy, and Craig Breslow to work with.
9. Nick Yorke – 2B
Tyler Milliken ⚾️ on Twitter: "Nick Yorke in the month of August:19 Games - 78 PA.321/.393/.526/.9193 HR7 2B16 RBI150 wRC+June and July were tough months, but he's been been on a heater the last few weeks. Huge for his stock going into the offseason.pic.twitter.com/YZ0t1wQyEf / Twitter"
Nick Yorke in the month of August:19 Games - 78 PA.321/.393/.526/.9193 HR7 2B16 RBI150 wRC+June and July were tough months, but he's been been on a heater the last few weeks. Huge for his stock going into the offseason.pic.twitter.com/YZ0t1wQyEf
Height: 5’11” | Weight: 200 | B-T: R-R | Entering age-22 season
For the past 12 months, Yorke has been in roughly 98% of potential trade proposals made by Red Sox fans. That isn’t changing anytime soon with Vaughn Grissom now set to take over second base in 2024 with an extremely similar profile. While 2023 was a bounce back year for the 2020 first-rounder, he didn’t reach the heights of his breakout 2021 campaign.
Yorke didn’t look overmatched at AA, as he put together a respectable line of .268/.350/.435/.784 with 13 long balls, 15 doubles, and 18 stolen bases. From an offensive standpoint, the 116 wRC+ was solid, but he was still battling his mechanics quite a bit. At the start of the year, his pre-pitch set-up had featured his hands at the top of his head before switching to a more conventional style midway through the season.
Defensively, it’s hard to not give Yorke his dues for improving defensively. He entered professional baseball with anchors in his shoulder that made many nervous about his ability to play the field down the line. Since then, he’s steadily improved at the position and now makes all the routine plays despite limited range.
Yorke received a non-roster invite to spring training, so with a strong build-up to the season, he could start the year in Worcester. He doesn’t offer the most exciting set of tools, but he’s shown the ability to have an average hit tool and can field his position. It’s not like the bar for second base is particularly high in the big leagues either.
10. Luis Perales – SP
Tyler Milliken ⚾️ on Twitter: "Luis Perales over his last 2 starts:11 IP2 Hits0.00 ERA/1.43 FIP14 K1 BB.057 BAAJust brought home Carolina League Pitcher of the Week. Some exciting arms are making noise in the lower minors for the Red Sox.pic.twitter.com/MnTTvPgG6k / Twitter"
Luis Perales over his last 2 starts:11 IP2 Hits0.00 ERA/1.43 FIP14 K1 BB.057 BAAJust brought home Carolina League Pitcher of the Week. Some exciting arms are making noise in the lower minors for the Red Sox.pic.twitter.com/MnTTvPgG6k
Height: 6’1″ | Weight: 160 | B-T: R-R | Entering age-21 season
Set to open 2024 in High-A, it’s fair to argue Perales has the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the Red Sox system. He returned to Single-A this season and was promoted after 13 starts, where he configured a 3.21 ERA/3.16 FIP with a 12.0 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9. His fastball continued to be his bread and butter, as it sat between 95-99 MPH with 21 inches of vertical ride and 6.7 feet of extension (Per Baseball America).
Perales hit a wall once he reached High-A though, as he started walking more batters and becoming prone to homers. That led to a rough 4.95 ERA/6.07 FIP in 8 starts to finish the year, where he still missed bats but saw his BB/9 settle in at 5.5 and his HR/9 spike to 2.0. He did carry his heaviest workload yet, which might have caught up to him as the season winded down.
Further developing his repertoire will make it a lot easier to project his future after this season. Entering 2023, he was mostly known for just his fastball, but saw his slider and changeup open some eyes. Both flash some devastating movement and have the potential to be average to plus offerings.
There’s a reason the Red Sox didn’t risk leaving Perales unprotected in the Rule 5 Draft. It’s easy to see how his timeline resembles how Brayan Bello climbed through the minors a few years back. While Teel, Mayer, and Anthony are allegedly the key to the Red Sox spending again, the pitching pipeline starting to turn out more names will be just as important.
