Zolak & Bertrand: The Football Card – Week 15
The crew owns a record of 34-30-1 after Week 14 with Zo and Milliken coming away with wins, and Beetle, Hardy, and T-Bone not being so fortunate.
Zo picked up his second win in a row by betting on the Broncos and Charges struggling to score last week (UNDER 44). T-Bone continued to scuffle after predicting a shootout between the Eagles and Cowboys (OVER 52). Hardy put his faith in the Lions (-3) taking care of business against the Bears but they didn’t show. Beetle expected the Chiefs (+1.5) to keep it tight against the Bills, but that wasn’t the case. Lastly, Milliken won for the second week in a row as the Bengals (-3) destroy the Chiefs.
One of the biggest questions we get each week is what betting lines do we make our picks from. In past years, sports betting wasn’t allowed in Massachusetts, but that barrier has finally been broken down. Check out Bet MGM to see the exact same lines the guys are looking at.
Beetle (10-3): Ravens @ Jaguars – Ravens (-3)
PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA – OCTOBER 08: Lamar Jackson #8 of the Baltimore Ravens attempts a pass during the first half against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium on October 08, 2023 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
Beetle doesn’t trust the Jaguars in any primetime games, especially with how they’ve looked lately. So, this should be an opportunity for the Ravens to take care of business despite being on the road. Make it 4 straights wins for John Harbaugh’s squad.
Zolak (7-6): Steelers @ Colts – Steelers (+1.5)
CINCINNATI, OHIO – SEPTEMBER 11: Head coach Mike Tomlin of the Pittsburgh Steelers coaches his team against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium on September 11, 2022 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Steelers badly need a win after some ugly losses to the Cardinals and Patriots. Colts had their winning streak snapped after a beatdown from the Bengals and Jake Browning last week. Zo believes this is the type of game where Mike Tomlin’s impact really shines through with Pittsburgh’s season on life support.
T-Bone (7-6): Cowboys @ Bills – OVER (50)
TAMPA, FLORIDA – JANUARY 16: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates on the field after defeating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31-14 in the NFC Wild Card playoff game at Raymond James Stadium on January 16, 2023 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)
Despite T-Bone getting burnt by taking the over with the Cowboys a week ago, he’s not stepping down, especially with Dak Prescott dominating MVP talk right now. Bills should be able to put some points on the board after a major win against the Chiefs. Bring on the shootout.
Hardy (6-6-1): Chiefs @ Patriots – Patriots (+8.5)
PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA – DECEMBER 07: Quarterback Bailey Zappe (4) of the New England Patriots looks to pass in the first quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium on December 07, 2023 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images)
Hardy has been pumping his chest all week that the Patriots were going to upset the Chiefs. He’s not going to bet the moneyline with the entire parlay up in the air, but he’s confident Bill Belichick will find a way to keep this close. Should help that the Chiefs are looking pretty dysfunctional right after their meltdown against the Bills last week.
Milliken (4-9): Vikings @ Bengals – Bengals (-3)
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – JANUARY 29: Ja’Marr Chase #1 of the Cincinnati Bengals catches a pass against the Kansas City Chiefs during the fourth quarter in the AFC Championship Game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on January 29, 2023 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Last week the Bengals got Milliken a big win and he’s hoping it happens once again. Vikings are a mess at QB with Josh Dobbs getting benched for Nick Mullens. Seems like a great spot for Jake Browning to pick up his third straight win, even if he cramps up again.
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Not allowing a get-right game: Patriots vs. Chiefs What To Watch For
New coverage plan
Oct 12, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) and wide receiver Rashee Rice (4) line up against the Los Angeles Chargers during the game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Wide receiver Tyreek Hill burned the Patriots badly the first two times he played them, putting up seven catches for 133 yards and a touchdown in the 2017 season opener and then another seven catches for 142 yards and three touchdowns in a regular season game in 2018. In the next three matchups between the Patriots’ and the Chiefs – including that 2020 game – the Patriots chose to make Hill the greater of two evils, forcing Kansas City to run the offense through tight end Travis Kelce rather than Hill.
This Sunday will be the first time the Patriots play the Chiefs since they traded Hill to the Miami Dolphins. Kansas City hasn’t exactly done a great job of replacing Hill since, and their wide receiver group is as unthreatening as it’s been in Patrick Mahomes’ tenure. Given that, more is being asked of Kelce this year than ever before.
Through 13 games (although Kelce himself has only played 12), Kelce is the Chiefs’ leading receiver with 80 catches for 896 yards. Rookie Rashee Rice has been a bright spot at times with 59 catches for 663 yards, but after him the group’s production drops off significantly. Kadarius Toney is third among the team’s receiver with just 25 catches, while Justin Watson has the third-most yards with 350.
With Hill no longer in the picture and Mahomes struggling to elevate the receivers around him, look for the Patriots to swarm Kelce, try to take him out of the picture, and make Mahomes win by throwing elsewhere. Given Kelce’s high-level ability to get open against zone, that will probably look like a lot of man coverage with help over the top shaded to wherever Kelce lines up.
A major test for the offensive line
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – OCTOBER 12: Chris Jones #95 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates his sack against the Denver Broncos during the second quarter at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on October 12, 2023 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
Defensive tackle Chris Jones didn’t play in the last meeting between the Patriots and Chiefs. He’s certainly been busy since though and is playing some of the best football of his career this year. He has 7.5 sacks in 12 games and ranks third among all interior defenders this year with 51 pressures.
The last two weeks in particular, Jones has been a game-wrecker. He’s tied his season high for pressures with seven in each of the last two, and would have been player of the game against Buffalo last week had the Chiefs’ offense not imploded late.
Adding to the threat Jones brings is the fact that defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will move him all around the formation. He’s starting to get more snaps as a defensive end, which allows the Chiefs to pick their matchups on a play-by-play basis.
That brings us to Sunday’s matchup. Look for the Chiefs to test different members of the Patriots’ offensive line with Jones early, trying to find a spot to exploit. That could be either of the guard spots, which has struggled with line games this year, or potentially off left tackle if the Patriots rotate Trent Brown again.
Wherever he’s coming from, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Jones get in the backfield regularly. If he does, it’ll be up to Bailey Zappe to handle the pressure and not get flustered.
Which Bailey Zappe will we get?
PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA – DECEMBER 07: Quarterback Bailey Zappe (4) of the New England Patriots looks to pass in the first half against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium on December 07, 2023 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images)
Last week was a tale of two halves for Bailey Zappe. He started the game going 14-of-21 for 196 yards and three touchdowns, but came out of the locker room and threw just nine passes, completing five for 44 yards with an interception.
Given the context that made some sense, as the Patriots got careful to protect what was a 21-10 halftime lead. While that approach may have worked against a Mitch Trubisky-quarterbacked Pittsburgh Steelers team it won’t work against these Chiefs, even with the overall lack of weapons around Patrick Mahomes.
Zappe had some high points last week, but wasn’t consistent. If he can string more of those moments together in this game, the Patriots will have a chance. But, it needs to be more than flashes from the quarterback position for the Patriots to keep the game close into the second half.
