Phil Perry: A loss to Commanders would stick with Robert Kraft
Phil Perry of NBC Sports Boston joins Zolak and Bertrand and lays out a scenario for Sunday’s game that could spell disaster for Bill Belichick:
‘That kind of game would stick with Robert Kraft’
“Let’s put ourselves in Robert Kraft’s shoes in the owner’s box as he’s watching this. It’s a nice fall day. Looks like the weather should be pretty good. It’s a 1pm game you’re playing what is ostensibly a beatable team. 1:00 on Sunday at home. If you lose. Or you are losing to the obviously tanking after trading away two of their best players Commanders. And you’re down at halftime, maybe even double digits, which has been the case in every single one of their losses. You might be down your left tackle and your best receiver in this game. I’m not sure how you could be feeling good about this game. So say you’re down before the third quarter even ends. The seats start to empty. And you’re Robert Kraft. That’s the kind of performance that I think would really stick with you. Even if by the time of the end of the season, somehow they rattle off for their last six or seven. You know what I’m saying? I think ownership would look at that experience and that performance against the Commanders at home. “What the hell happened there?”
“I think that kind of game would stick with Robert Kraft in the same way that I think, for instance, the end to the Raiders game last year stuck with Robert Kraft for a long time. It’s the kind of thing you look back on and say, “What the hell was that?” And so I wouldn’t call it the final straw. I wouldn’t call it the straw that broke the camel’s back. But I would say if that’s what happens this weekend, and I do think that’s in play.”
LISTEN: Phil Perry on what a loss to the Commanders would mean for Belichick
Familiar spot, unfamiliar faces: Patriots vs. Commanders What To Watch For
Despite trades, Washington still poses a test up front
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – OCTOBER 22: Chase Young #99 and Montez Sweat #90 of the Washington Commanders celebrate after a fumble recovery in the fourth quarter of the game against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium on October 22, 2023 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images)
While the Patriots stood pat at this year’s trade deadline, the Commanders were the league’s biggest seller. They moved on from two of the top edge rushers in the league (both of whom were on expiring contracts), sending Montez Sweat to the Chicago Bears for a second-round pick and Chase Young to the San Francisco 49ers for a third-round pick.
So great, the Patriots’ next opponent just moved on from two great pass rushers. That’s surely a great sign for this week’s matchup, right? Right?
Well, even without Sweat and Young the Commanders still have a dominant defensive front. Their defensive tackle combination of Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne is if not the best, one of the best in the NFL. Heading into Week 9, Allen ranks fifth among all interior rushers with 28 pressures this season, while Payne ranks 27th overall with 17 – both in eight games.
Washington’s trades this week mean the Patriots’ pass protection won’t be tested as much on the edge, this will still be as tough of a game as any for the Patriots’ interior offensive line since the opener. Look for center David Andrews to play a key role working with young guards Cole Strange, Sidy Sow, and Atonio Mafi, who were all rotated through the two guard spots last week.
Which Commanders defense shows up?
LANDOVER, MARYLAND – SEPTEMBER 24: Head coach Ron Rivera of the Washington Commanders looks on during the first half of a game against the Buffalo Bills at FedExField on September 24, 2023 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
If the Patriots can manage to get things blocked up the middle though, they should have chances to move the ball. Despite all of its individual talent, the Commanders’ defense ranks towards the bottom of the league in many major categories, highlighted by them placing 29th in yards allowed and 31st in points allowed.
When this defense is on, it’s on. However, when they’re off they’re off. In eight games this year Washington has held opponents under 20 points three times, In the other five, they’ve allowed 33 points or more.
In their off games, the Commanders have given up the most through the air. Starting cornerback Kendall Fuller has been solid this season but hasn’t had much help around him, with first-round pick Emmanuel Forbes struggling out of the gate.
Yes, the Patriots will be significantly shorthanded at wide receiver. But given Washington’s secondary, there should be chances for players stepping into bigger roles (Tyquan Thornton, Jalen Reagor, Kayshon Boutte) to prove themselves. If the Patriots can give Mac Jones time to throw (admittedly a big ‘if’), there should be receivers open.
Covering everybody
DETROIT, MICHIGAN – SEPTEMBER 18: Jahan Dotson #1 of the Washington Commanders (L) is congratulated by Terry McLaurin #17 after making a catch for a two-point conversion against the Detroit Lions during the fourth quarter at Ford Field on September 18, 2022 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
The Commanders’ offense is highlighted by wide receiver Terry McLaurin, who Bill Belichick called “clearly one of the top players in the league” earlier this week. McLaurin is the Commanders’ leading receiver so far this year with 42 catches for 495 yards and two touchdowns in eight games.
However, McLaurin is hardly their only threat, which Belichick also highlighted. “McLaurin is a great player, but the tight ends, the running backs, [Jahan] Dotson, [Curtis] Samuel, the receivers – he [quarterback Sam Howell] uses all of them,” Belichick noted.
Indeed, Howell has done a fantastic job of spreading the ball around in his first season as a full-time starter. The Commanders have five players with at least 20 catches this year, and eight players with over 100 receiving yards.
The impact first-year offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy has had on Howell and the Commanders is apparent. Bieniemy joins Washington from Kansas City, where he built the offense Patrick Mahomes ran early in his career. A key concept of this offense is to stretch the defense as thin as possible by having multiple players that can catch the ball at all three levels.
Defending this sort of offense will be a tough task for a Patriots’ secondary that is dealing with a number of injuries. Cornerbacks Jonathan Jones and Myles Bryant are on the injury report this week. That leaves J.C. Jackson, Jack Jones, Shaun Wade, and recently-signed Alex Austin as the team’s healthy cornerbacks.
Will the Patriots be able to cover across the board, and will they adjust when Howell finds a matchup he likes and repeatedly exploits it? That will be a key question. Don’t be surprised if the Patriots throw multiple looks at Howell early and spin the dial on him in the back end to prevent him from finding a rhythm.
