Patriots no longer control their division destiny after loss to Bills
The Patriots were sitting pretty three weeks ago. At 9-4 and atop the AFC entering their bye week, the Pats held key tiebreakers over the top conference contenders. They just needed to keep winning, and they’d secure home field in the playoffs.
But continuing to win was a tall order against some good teams. And after two tough in-conference defeats, their playoff picture looks a lot different.
Assuming the Patriots (9-6) win their last two games of the regular season, they’ll almost certainly still make the playoffs, so they “control” their destiny in that sense. But after losing 33-21 to the Bills, they’ve lost their grip on the AFC East. That is now in the hands of Buffalo, who simply need to take care of business the rest of the way to capture their second straight AFC East crown.
The Bills are also 9-6, but they hold the tiebreaker over the Pats. They are 4-1 against the AFC East, while the Patriots are now 3-2. Buffalo plays the Jets in Week 18, so if both teams win out, the standings would stay the same.
New England still has a 7-3 record against the conference, which is tied for the best with the Bengals and Colts. Indy, obviously, holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over them after a 27-17 win in Week 15. But that conference record still gives the Patriots a key advantage over other wild card contenders like the Ravens, Chargers, and Raiders. L.A. lost a bad one on Sunday to the Houston Texans to drop to 8-7. That was a huge help for the Patriots, who beat the Chargers in Week 8.
Nonetheless, the Patriots still plummeted to the No. 6 seed in the AFC after Sunday’s loss to the Bills. The Chiefs (10-4) are in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 seed, while the Titans won on Thursday night to improve to 10-5.
MORE: Patriots-Bills Ups & Downs After 33-21 Loss
If the Patriots can win out and get some help from the Bills to overtake the AFC East again, they would still need late Christmas gifts from the Chiefs and Titans to get back to the No. 1 seed. But they could overtake the Bengals for the third seed, since Cincy has been worse in common games (they’ve lost to the Chargers, Browns, and Jets).
Overall, the Patriots are still in good shape to get back to the playoffs, which ultimately should have been the expectation for this year’s team to begin with. But if they want to win the division or climb back to one of the top seeds in the conference? They’ve lost control of that.
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Matt Dolloff is a writer and podcaster for 985TheSportsHub.com. Any opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of 98.5 The Sports Hub, Beasley Media Group, or any subsidiaries. Have a news tip, question, or comment for Matt? Yell at him on Twitter @mattdolloff and follow him on Instagram @mattydsays. You can also email him at mdolloff@985thesportshub.com.
