The Final 53, Part V: Projecting the Patriots’ 53-man roster before the preseason finale
By Matt Dolloff, 985TheSportsHub.com
After the preseason dress rehearsal and a busy couple of days on the transaction wire, the Patriots’ Final 53™ is coming more into focus.
Defensive tackle Mike Pennel and wide receiver Maurice Harris, both of whom looked like near-certainties to make the Patriots’ 53-man roster earlier in the offseason, are among the notable roster casualties on Sunday and Monday. Their releases illustrate how things can change over the course of offseason workouts.
The Pats look much different at wide receiver than they looked even a week ago, now that both Josh Gordon and Demaryius Thomas are activated and presumably fully healthy. Meanwhile, the Patriots find themselves in a roster crunch amid great depth and schematic shifts on defense. That could send some talented players elsewhere via trade.
All in all, there could be as many as 15 players vying for maybe 3-4 spots, as a rough estimate. But here’s what we have for now as the NFL is just six days away from final roster cuts around the league.
Quarterbacks (2): Tom Brady, Jarrett Stidham
Tom Brady of the New England Patriots reacts to his teams first quarter touchdown while playing the Detroit Lions during a preseason game at Ford Field on August 08, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
Brian Hoyer isn’t as easy of a cut as he may seem. Tom Brady definitely values his help in game-planning and Bill Belichick likes the way he commands the scout team offense. Unfortunately, the team needs its depth at a number of other positions and in a perfect world, those extra bodies play more than the backup quarterback. Jarrett Stidham may still be raw and needs time to improve his decision-making and get more comfortable in the offense. But ideally, neither he nor Hoyer see the field outside of blowouts and garbage time anyway.
Keeping just two QBs is one of the Patriots’ best opportunities to preserve their depth elsewhere. Ultimately they gamble on Brady avoiding season-ending injuries and soldiering through everything else like he always does.
Wide Receivers (6): Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon, Phillip Dorsett, Demaryius Thomas, N’Keal Harry, Jakobi Meyers
Josh Gordon of the New England Patriots looks on during the first half against the Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium on September 30, 2018 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
Phillip Dorsett has felt like a bubble guy as the Patriots have gotten healthier and deeper at receiver in recent weeks. But it would be borderline criminal to move on from him after he proved his value to the roster in week 3 of the preseason. There’s still little certainty outside of Julian Edelman as to how well they connect with Brady in 2019. Dorsett represents a safe bet to execute the offense the way Brady and Belichick want out of their receivers.
Gordon and Thomas are in, because they’d be released by now if they were not. N’Keal Harry is in as long as he’s fully healthy right now and avoids PUP or IR to start the season. Jakobi Meyers’ poor performance with Brady shows why he won’t be a starter any time soon, but his great half with Stidham shows why he’s still making the team. He’s had too good of a summer.
Braxton Berrios and Gunner Olszewski become unfortunate casualties of the Patriots’ newfound depth at receiver. But you can give at least one of them a good chance to pass through waivers and sign to the Patriots’ practice squad. Cameron Meredith is likely headed for IR with an eye toward possibly contributing in 2020.
Running Backs (6): Sony Michel, James White, Rex Burkhead, Damien Harris, James Develin (FB), Brandon Bolden
Tom Brady hands the ball off to Sony Michel of the New England Patriots in the first quarter against the Los Angeles Rams during Super Bowl LIII at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on February 03, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
No surprises here. It’s still Rex Burkhead that would likely be the odd man out if anyone, but his versatility and special teams value should help him stick around. Sony Michel looks primed for a bigger role and more looks in the passing game, which could make Burkhead more expendable. But there have been no strong indications that any of the above names are on the way out.
Tight Ends (3): Matt LaCosse, Ryan Izzo, Eric Saubert
Aug 8, 2019; Detroit, MI: New England Patriots wide receiver Dontrelle Inman celebrates after a play with tight end Ryan Izzo during the third quarter against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. (Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports)
It may seem crazy that the Patriots would keep three players at their thinnest position. But they ran some three-tight end sets with their goal line offense last Thursday, a small indication that they prefer to carry three into the season. Just because the talent is down at the position doesn’t mean the Patriots only want to have one or two at their disposal, especially considering their lack of depth at tackle.
Saubert can contribute on special teams and hopefully be a competent depth replacement while Ben Watson sits out the first four weeks of the season. Izzo has shown he could be a starter when the Patriots come out running the ball, while LaCosse is in as long as he avoids PUP to start the season.
If LaCosse is out, perhaps Stephen Anderson makes the cut. Lance Kendricks has always had a reasonable chance to make the team, but injuries and now a one-game suspension for violating the league’s policy on substances of abuse mean he’s probably on the outside looking in.
Offensive Line (8): Isaiah Wynn, Joe Thuney, David Andrews, Shaq Mason, Marcus Cannon, Ted Karras, Cole Croston, Hjalte Froholdt
Jun 5, 2019; Foxborough, MA: New England Patriots tackle Isaiah Wynn walks on to the field before mandatory minicamp at the Gillette Stadium practice field. (Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports)
Through little fault of his own, Froholdt is contributing to the crunching at the end of the roster. The Patriots aren’t going to move on from him, so if he stays healthy he’s in – but he’ll likely be inactive on most Sundays. The starters are locked in, including Isaiah Wynn at left tackle. Dan Skipper hasn’t set himself apart from Cole Croston, potentially giving the latter the upper hand on the swing tackle spot due to his experience in the organization.
Unfortunately, rookie tackle Yodny Cajuste never made it on the field in camp. He’s looking at a redshirt rookie season, but will have enough upside to push for a roster spot in 2020.
Defensive Line (7): Michael Bennett, Lawrence Guy, Danny Shelton, Adam Butler, John Simon, Chase Winovich, Byron Cowart
Will Grier of the Carolina Panthers runs against Byron Cowart of the New England Patriots in the third quarter of a preseason game at Gillette Stadium on August 22, 2019 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Kathryn Riley/Getty Images)
John Simon and Chase Winovich are listed as a defensive linemen at Patriots.com, but they are outside linebacker types in the Patriots’ 3-4 looks that they’ve shown over the summer. The rest are bigger interior defenders, and that group includes Michael Bennett, who has gotten looks over the middle. Lawrence Guy and Danny Shelton are locked in, as Shelton outperformed the released Mike Pennel for his role as the top nose guard. Butler appears safe as an interior pass rusher.
Rookie Byron Cowart, meanwhile, has looked surprisingly good in the preseason. He got run with the starters in the dress rehearsal and blew up a Panthers run on their first play of scrimmage. He could be rising quicker than anticipated as a fifth-round pick, but Cowart is a former five-star recruit. Perhaps Bill Belichick has unlocked something within the former Maryland product, who originally committed to Auburn’s elite program.
On the outside looking in are 2017 draft picks Deatrich Wise and Derek Rivers. But either of them could actually have trade value, particularly to the Lions where Matt Patricia could find a role for them in his 4-3 schemes. It wouldn’t be terribly surprising if at least one of them got traded instead of released.
Linebackers (5): Dont’a Hightower, Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins, Ja’Whaun Bentley, Calvin Munson
Cam Newton of the Carolina Panthers is sacked by Kyle Van Noy of the New England Patriots during the preseason game between the Carolina Panthers and the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium on August 22, 2019 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
Schematically, John Simon and Chase Winovich could be considered part of this group. Elandon Roberts is the odd man out here because he no longer appears to be a fit as more of a 4-3 inside linebacker. But the aforementioned Lions have been rumored as a possible trade partner for his services. The Seahawks could also be a fit.
The first four names above are virtual locks and all possess a certain level of versatility for their positions, which should help confuse opposing offenses as to who’s doing what on any given play. Munson, meanwhile, sneaks in on this projection as a depth linebacker and replacement for special teams mainstay Brandon King, who went on injured reserve after suffering a torn quad.
Safeties (5): Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, Duron Harmon, Terrence Brooks, Nate Ebner
Cam Newton of the Carolina Panthers runs with the ball in the first quarter of a preseason game against Terrence Brooks of the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium on August 22, 2019 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Kathryn Riley/Getty Images)
Patrick Chung’s spot should not be in jeopardy, despite his legal issues. He’s highly unlikely to face any discipline from the league until next season at the earliest, as well. Duron Harmon’s spot felt a little tenuous recently, but he’s likely to stick around as a top-3 option in the Patriots’ “big nickel” packages.
Brooks is expected to contribute heavily on special teams but has gotten plenty of snaps on defense. That was likely to get him up to speed in the event that Chung isn’t ready for the start of the season. Ebner has become more important for special teams stability in the wake of the loss of King. Missing the cut is Obi Melifonwu, who appeared to be pushing Harmon or Brooks for a spot but hasn’t set himself apart despite his physical gifts.
Cornerbacks (7): Stephon Gilmore, Jason McCourty, Jonathan Jones, J.C. Jackson, Keion Crossen, Duke Dawson, Joejuan Williams
Aug 22, 2019; Foxborough, MA: Carolina Panthers wide receiver D.J. Moore is tackled by New England Patriots strong safety Duron Harmon and defensive back Jonathan Jones during the first half at Gillette Stadium. (Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports)
It may take a move to safety for Duke Dawson to find a place on this roster. But wherever he ends up, it’s never been terribly likely that Belichick would move on from him before the start of his second season. That would essentially be an admission that he completely whiffed on Dawson and made the worst second-round pick of his career, because those guys always make it through at least two seasons.
If the Pats don’t want to carry seven corners or 12 total defensive backs, then they’d have to make a tough decision on someone other than Dawson. Despite playing well and ostensibly earning the starting slot corner role, Jonathan Jones has always been an easy player to move in theory. His contract is non-guaranteed and he’d be a viable starter in the slot for another team at $3.095 million. That would open up an opportunity for Dawson and Keion Crossen to play that role.
But that’s just speculation. It’s quite possible that the Patriots go with this deep of a cornerback group, because no one has done enough to deserve to lose their spot here. Crossen and Jones also contribute on special teams, but Dawson has also gotten looks in that department recently.
Specialists (4): Matthew Slater, K Stephen Gostkowski, P Jake Bailey, LS Joe Cardona
Tom Brady and Matthew Slater take the field before practice at Patriots mandatory minicamp on June 5, 2019. (Matt Dolloff/WBZ-FM)
No surprises here. Bailey won the punting job over Ryan Allen and doesn’t appear to be getting any last-minute competition.
The plan is to take one last stab at The Final 53™ before final cutdowns come on Sunday, Sept. 1. It’s likely the Patriots make more moves over the course of the next six days and perhaps a player or two makes a strong case to make the team in the preseason finale.
Matt Dolloff is a digital producer for 985TheSportsHub.com. Any opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of 98.5 The Sports Hub, Beasley Media Group, or any subsidiaries. Have a news tip, question, or comment for Matt? Follow him on Twitter @mattdolloff or email him at matthew.dolloff@bbgi.com.
