The Patriots’ injury questions for Week 2 will linger into the weekend
Will the New England Patriots will be shorthanded on Sunday night when the host the Miami Dolphins for a Week 2 matchup? That question will linger into the weekend.
Despite having multiple players miss multiple days of practice this week, the Patriots didn’t rule any players out for Sunday’s game on Friday’s injury report. Offensive linemen Trent Brown (concussion) and Sidy Sow (concussion) missed practice all three days this week, and are listed as questionable.
READ MORE:
—Patriots Week 2 Mailbag
— Key matchups in Sunday’s Patriots-Dolphins game
— Final questions ahead of Patriots Dolphins
So is cornerback Jonathan Jones (ankle), who was added to the injury report as limited on Thursday and then didn’t practice on Friday. Jones is generally a key part of the Patriots’ coverage plan against Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill, making his status one to monitor.
In addition, guards Mike Onwenu (ankle) and Cole Strange (knee), and wide receiver DeVante Parker (knee) are questionable for Sunday. The three were limited all week.
There was good news for the Patriots injury-wise on Friday. Both center David Andrews (hamstring) and wide receiver Kayshon Boutte (hamstring) were removed from the injury report after being limited Wednesday and Thursday.
The Dolphins have four players listed as questionable for Sunday – tackle Terron Armstead (back/ankle/knee), tight end Julian Hill (ankle), linebacker Jaelan Phillips (back), and defensive back Elijah Campbell (knee). Six players were removed from Miami’s injury report on Friday, including running back Raheem Mostert (knee), wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (oblique), and cornerback Xavien Howard (thumb).
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Slowing down the NFL's fastest offense: Patriots vs. Dolphins What To Watch For
Look, there really isn’t such a thing as a ‘must-win’ game in Week 2 of any NFL season. But for the New England Patriots this week, they enter the week on the verge of ending up in a very tough spot.
After dropping their season opener 25-20 to the Philadelphia Eagles last week, the Patriots welcome the Miami Dolphins to Gillette Stadium this Sunday night. In what will be their first matchup against an AFC East team – and AFC Wild Card contender – this season, the Patriots are trying to avoid falling into the often-discussed, always-dreaded 0-2 hole.
READ MORE:
—Patriots Week 2 Mailbag
— The Patriots have a new practice squad quarterback
— The Patriots’ Week 2 injury report keeps growing
When it comes to making the playoffs, an 0-2 start is often viewed as a line of demarcation. Last year, the Cincinnati Bengals became the first NFL team in five years to make the playoffs after dropping their first two games – a team with a tremendous margin of error given their outstanding natural talent. The other four 0-2 teams from last year (Falcons, Panthers, Raiders, Titans) finished with an average of 6.75, with that average dropping down to 5.6 wins when included the Texas and Colts who both started winless at 0-1-1.
In order to avoid that dubious 0-2 record the Patriots will need to do something they’ve never done before – beat Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. The Patriots are 0-4 facing Tagovailoa since the Dolphins drafted him fifth overall in 2020. Many have pointed to Tagovailoa as being the difference-maker between the Patriots and Dolphins in recent years – after all, the Patriots are 2-0 against Miami since 2020 when he doesn’t play. But it goes a little deeper than that.
It’s not like Tagovailoa has been lighting up the box score against Bill Belichick’s defenses. In those four games, Tagovailoa has completed 68.5 percent of his passes, while averaging 181.5 yards per game. He’s thrown three total touchdowns in those matchups (while adding three more on the ground), with two interceptions. The Dolphins’ point total in those four games have been 22, 17, 33, and 20 (chronologically).
Obviously, things changed last year when the Dolphins added All-Pro wide receiver Tyreek Hill to the picture. Yet with Tagovailoa throwing to both Hill and Jaylen Waddle in his lone matchup against the Patriots in last year’s season opener (he was hurt for the late-season matchup in Foxborough), the Dolphins scored just 20 points – with seven of those coming as a result of a scoop-and-score defensive touchdown.
Instead, it’s been the Patriots’ offense that has struggled most in the matchups against the Tagovailoa-led Dolphins. The Patriots’ scoring totals in those same four games have been 12, 16, 24, and 7. That came facing mostly defenses led by former Patriots assistant coach Brian Flores, who was the head coach of the Dolphins from 2019-2021. Last year Flores was replaced by current Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel, although McDaniel retained another former Patriots assistant – Josh Boyer – as his defensive coordinator.
This offseason the Dolphins fired Boyer, and replaced him with veteran defensive guru Vic Fangio. That means that this will be the first time in the Dolphins’ Tua era that the Patriots aren’t facing one of their own former coaches designing Miami’s defense.
Can the Patriots finally crack a Miami defense under new leadership this year? If they do, can the defense continue to play at the level it has against the Dolphins with Tagovailoa under center? Let’s start there with this week’s What To Watch For…
Stopping RPOs
INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 10: Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins drops back to pass behind Raheem Mostert #31 during a 36-34 Dolphins win over the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium on September 10, 2023 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
The Patriots’ defense hasn’t given up monster numbers to the Dolphins’ offense in recent years, but that doesn’t mean they haven’t had their issues. In particular, they’ve struggled with RPOs.
For those unfamiliar with the RPO concept as a whole, we covered it in-depth last year here. Basically, they’re offensive plays designed to put a single defender in conflict, with the quarterback reading that defender to create an opening on either a run or a pass (hence the name ‘Run-Pass Option’).
It’s not just the Patriots who struggle against Miami’s RPO package. Given Tagovailoa’s quick release and the speed of the Dolphins’ skill position players, they’re built ideally to maximize on those concepts. Unsurprisingly, the Dolphins led the NFL last year in yards per play on RPOs among teams with at least 100 RPO calls.
That success on RPOs was apparent in the lone game Tagovailoa played against the Patriots last year. The Dolphins ran six RPOs in that game – four runs going for 20 yards (including one first down) and two passes for 40 yards (both first downs). In total, the Dolphins gained 60 yards on their six RPO calls – accounting for 22.1 percent of their total yardage in the game on 11.5 percent of their total plays.
The good news here is the Patriots seemed to have a beat on defending RPOs last week. Notice the Eagles are also on the above chart? In last week’s game the Eagles ran five RPOs, picking up just 23 total yards.
What changed? It was a combination of things working in tandem, from the increased athleticism of the Patriots’ defense, to different structuring, to their ability to get to the quarterback quickly and disrupt things at the mesh point.
If the Patriots can have similar success against RPOs this week, they should once again be able to limit the Dolphins’ offense. Given the talent at their disposal, it’s not an unreasonable expectation.
Coverage matchups
INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 10: Tyreek Hill #10 talks with Jaylen Waddle #17 of the Miami Dolphins after a touchdown in the fourth quarter of a game against the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium on September 10, 2023 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
For the past few years, one of the easiest projections for coverage matchups for the Patriots each year has been the Dolphins. While the Patriots’ lack of size at cornerback creates conflict against some opponents, the speed and quickness of their defensive backfield has them uniquely set up to match up with Miami.
Although the Dolphins’ offense became more explosive with the addition of Tyreek Hill last year, that actually didn’t complicate the Patriots’ coverage plan. When Hill was with the Kansas City Chiefs, the Patriots regularly used Jonathan Jones in coverage on Hill with positive success.
With Jones, the coverage plan likely remains relatively unchanged from last year. Jones will take Hill with safety help over the top, with the other boundary cornerbacks (Christian Gonzalez, Marcus Jones) rotating on Jaylen Waddle situationally.
However, Jones was listed on Thursday’s injury report as limited with an ankle issue. If he isn’t 100 percent for the game, that completely complicates the Patriots’ defensive plans. Does Marcus Jones take Hill in a speed-on-speed matchup? Or does the rookie Gonzalez face another incredibly tough test? Either way, both players will need help over the top, taking assets away from stopping the run. In this scenario the Patriots would probably run a coverage-heavy defense and dare Miami to run the ball, putting the onus on their front to limit Miami’s ground attack without much help.
One other, smaller note on the Dolphins’ skill-position players involves the tight end position. Last week, the Dolphins rotated their skill position players pretty regularly with Hill leading all receivers with a 65.7 percent usage rate, followed by Jaylen Waddle at 64.2 percent. However, there was one skill position player with a 100 percent usage rate – tight end Durham Smythe. He caught three passes for 44 yards in the game.
Last year, the Patriots had issues covering tight ends, even less-impactful ones at times. They were better last week against Dallas Goedert, so we’ll see if they can keep that up. But Smythe is a big part of Miami’s offense, so don’t be surprised if the Dolphins try to get him going early.
Generating a push up front
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – SEPTEMBER 10: David Andrews #60 of the New England Patriots looks on during the third quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles at Gillette Stadium on September 10, 2023 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
On offense, it looks like the Patriots will be shorthanded again on the offensive line. Trent Brown and Sidy Sow have both missed the first two practices of the week withconcussions, which is generally a sign players aren’t going to play on Sunday. Meanwhile, Cole Strange and Mike Onwenu are still limited and David Andrews was added to the injury report this week as well.
Let’s start with the worst-case scenario and build from there. Andrews spoke to the media this week, which is generally a good sign a player is going to play. Assuming the other four linemen are out, the Patriots’ starting offensive line would probably look something like this…
LT: Calvin Anderson
LG: Atonio Mafi
C: David Andrews
RG: James Ferentz (practice squad elevation)
RT: Vederian LoweIf one of Strange or Onwenu can return, they’d plug back into their regular spot with Mafi taking the other. If both return, Mafi goes to the bench.
While the first thought when looking at this configuration is pass blocking, that actually may not be as much of an issue. Mac Jones and Bill O’Brien did a good job last week with the scheme and execution of turning Jones into his own best pass protector. It may not be pretty, but they should be able to get by.
The real concern is in the running game. Part of the Patriots’ issues late in last weeks game were not being able to convert in short-yardage when needed. Despite having two power running backs in Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott, the Patriots couldn’t get any push up front – especially on the interior.
Running between the tackles last week the Patriots totaled just 17 yards on 13 carries – for 1.3 yards per carry – before abandoning conventional runs for the most part late in the game. This showed up in a crucial moment late in the game, when Elliott was stopped on a 3rd & 3 up the middle for no gain on the second-to-last play of the second-to-last drive.
Can the Patriots make the run game a factor again this week? They’ll need to find a way to do so to move the ball consistently.
Throwback week
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – OCTOBER 09: The New England Patriots run onto the field before the game against the Detroit Lions at Gillette Stadium on October 09, 2022 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Getty Images)
Not a schematic thing to watch, but it will still be cool to see. The Patriots will be wearing their red ‘Pat Patriot’ throwbacks for the first of two throwback games on Sunday night (with the other coming against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 13).
While the uniform and ‘Pat Patriot’ logo is associated with the dark days of the franchise by certain fans, they’ve been the opposite since the team brought it back as a throwback look in 2002. Since then the Patriots are 8-2 while wearing red, with a 1-1 record last year.
