What the win in Pittsburgh means for the Patriots’ draft outlook
NOTHING.
At least, nothing definitive. It’s way too soon to say.
On Thursday night, the New England Patriots beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 21-18 to snap a five-game losing streak and raise their record to 3-10. It was a win that certainly seemed cathartic for the team itself.
Meanwhile, a not insignificant portion of the fanbase took the win differently. Descriptions of the victory ranged from “bad” to “very bad” to “the most consequential thing that can happen.” And that’s all just in reply to one tweet. If you want to see more, check out the replies to the team’s final score tweet.
The dissatisfaction with the win is tied to the Patriots’ draft position. As the team struggles offensively with three elite quarterback prospects and a generational wide receiver sitting at the top of this year’s class, some have been as focused on that as much as the team itself over the past month-plus.
It’s not unfair for Patriots fans to be focused on the draft. The team needs an infusion of talent and the draft is the easiest path to that. Especially with the quarterback situation being what it is and the quarterback talent projected to be available in this draft.
However, the Patriots winning one game, and even potentially one or two more in their last four, both doesn’t and shouldn’t prevent the team from being a player for one of those top prospects. A win is no reason to panic, and it appears some fans need to be reminded of that.
First off, the win didn’t actually draft the Patriots place in the race for the top pick. They’re still slotted into the second spot if the season ended today, via the strength of schedule tiebreaker with the Arizona Cardinals. Arizona is on the bye this week.
It’s also too soon to know the true impact of moving a spot up or down the board. Last year the Houston Texans won two of their final three games, which led to them finishing 3-13-1 and knocking them from the top spot in the draft to second. At the time they were ridiculed for it.
Because of that, the Texans didn’t have a shot to draft Alabama’s Bryce Young, who the Texans reportedly preferred. Instead they ended up with Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud. Fast forward 10 months and Stroud is the favorite to win NFL Rookie of the Year while the Panthers, who ended up drafting Young, are on their way to having the league’s worst record. Despite winning games late, the Texans got the right guy.
Even if the Patriots do win another game or two, that in no way eliminates them from a top three pick either. If they identify a player that they believe can be the face of the franchise for the next 10-15 years (whoever that is), and need to pick second, third, etc. to get that player, they can still make that happen. This isn’t baseball – teams are allowed to trade draft picks and move up the board.
That’s really not an uncommon occurrence. In the last 10 years, 22 quarterbacks have been selected in the top 10. Of those 22, nine were drafted by a team trading up rather than picking in their originally assigned spot. Take out first overall picks, and it’s almost half with seven of 16 such quarterbacks being drafted after a trade. It’s the price of doing business in the NFL and allowed players like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen to end up with their current teams.
It’d be one thing if the Patriots were trying to get from the 20s into the top three to five picks. But moving up within the top 10 is not a massive undertaking.
If the Patriots feel the guy they feel can lead the organization back to being perennial contenders, they need to find a way to draft him, even if that’s not in their assigned spot. If they don’t end up taking such a player they shouldn’t be criticized for winning a game. Rather, the criticism should be pointed at their inability to move up in the draft.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the point of the games is to win. This is something Mike Felger has been hot on for a few weeks now, and he’s right. When the focus becomes losing games rather than winning them, losing can become habitual. Even in a down – what some might call a ‘lost’ – season, it’s even more important to not lose bigger picture organizational direction. Too many franchises across all sports go into tank mode and take decades to come out of it.
The experience of winning games, especially a close road game like Thursday night, is good for the younger players on the team that will be a part of building things back up. A night like that can help show them what it takes to win these sports of games moving forwards.
Maybe the Patriots will lose out, and none of this will end up mattering. It’s very possible. If they don’t win another game this year they can’t finish with anything lower than the third overall pick. But if they mix another win or two in? It’s certainly not the worst thing that could happen.
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Back in the win column: 7 takeaways from the Patriots' win over the Steelers
Player of the game
Dec 7, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; New England Patriots running back Ezekiel Elliott (15) runs on his way to scoring on a touchdown pass against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the first quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
This was a throwback performance from Ezekiel Elliott. With DeVante Parker, Demario Douglas, and Rhamondre Stevenson all out it was clear the Patriots were going to need to lean on Zeke, and lean on him they did.
Elliott finished with 68 yards rushing on 22 carries, and 72 receiving yards on seven catches with a touchdown. His 140 yards from scrimmage are the most by a Patriots player in a game this season.
Stylistically, Elliott took a physical approach to a physical Steelers defense. The body blows he delivered appeared to make an impact throughout the game, weakening an already-depleted Steelers defensive front.
Most importantly though, Elliott make things easier for Bailey Zappe, who was making his second start of the season. Elliott found hidden yardage, often got himself open as a safety valve, and even made a tackle that prevented Zappe from throwing a pick-six.
The question is, can the 28-year-old continue to provide performances like this moving forward? They’ll be needed, with Stevenson expected to miss multiple weeks.
Zappe shines
Dec 7, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Bailey Zappe (4) throws on the run against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the third quarter at Acrisure Stadium. New England won 21-18. Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Speaking of Bailey Zappe, he was much improved in his second start of the year. In a performance that was highlighted by a strong start, he completed 19 of his 28 passes for 240 yards with three touchdowns and one interception.
The biggest thing that stood out with Zappe in this game was his ball placement. When throwing the ball down the field early, Zappe repeatedly put throws in spots where only his receivers could make a play. His second touchdown pass to Hunter Henry, just before halftime, may have been the best throw by a Patriots quarterback this year. Credit goes to those guys too for making those plays (will get to them more in a bit) but this was a real display of chemistry between quarterback and pass catcher. The impact of Zappe having two weeks of practice as the full-time starter showed.
In the second half the Patriots ramped things back, and Zappe relied much more on check downs. That half also featured his biggest blemish on a near pick-six when targeting JuJu Smith-Schuster. Zappe tried to fit the ball into a tight window only to have it deflected and picked. It was the kind of throw that Zappe struggled with in the summer. While a quarterback heat check isn’t always a bad thing, we’ll keep an eye on what Zappe learned from that throw, and if he tries to test similar windows going forward.
Overall this game was a positive for Zappe, coming off of a negative this week. Two games isn’t nearly enough of a sample size to judge a quarterback one way or the other, but for now he’ll play somewhat of a ‘tiebreaker’ game next week against the Chiefs.
Pass catchers do their part
PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA – DECEMBER 07: Wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster (7) of the New England Patriots celebrates after a reception in the first quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium on December 07, 2023 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
As mentioned above, the Patriots’ veteran wide receivers made as much of an impact as they have all year. Bailey Zappe gave them chances, and they capitalized. This was all despite Zappe not having his favorite target in DeVante Parker, who was ruled out before the game.
The biggest example of this was the performance of JuJu Smith-Schuster. His highlight catch through contact on third down on the first drive was the biggest contributor to the team’s opening touchdown. He also had another long catch-and-run on his way to a four-catch, 90-yard performance. Those 90 receiving yards were the most by a Patriots player in a single game this season. In terms of his movement, Smith-Schuster looked at explosive as he has all year.
Hunter Henry did his part as well. He caught two touchdowns, with his first done a great display of climbing the ladder and high-pointing a ball Zappe left up for him.
There was also an interesting wide receiver dynamic in this game between Tyquan Thornton, who the Patriots selected 50th overall in the 2022 NFL Draft, and George Pickens of Pittsburgh who went two two picks later. Not selecting Pickens has been a common hindsight second-guess for Patriots fans.
Neither player made a big impact in this game, with both players turning in stunningly low yards per catch numbers. Thornton caught three passes for 17 yards, while Pickens had five catches for 19 yards.
Barmore creates problems
PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA – DECEMBER 07: Christian Barmore #90 and Myles Bryant #27 of the New England Patriots sack Mitch Trubisky #10 of the Pittsburgh Steelers during the second half at Acrisure Stadium on December 07, 2023 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
Another game, another note in the takeaways that Christian Barmore was the Patriots’ most dominant player. He wreaked havoc throughout the game, with his impact extending well beyond the four tackles and half sack he was credited with.
One particular area Barmore stood out in was a defensive package the Patriots used on a number of their third downs. They had just Barmore and Keion White as down linemen, then blitzed from the secondary. That look led to both Jabrill Peppers’ interception as well as a key sack late in the game. In both instances, Barmore forced pressure through multiples blockers, often setting up plays for others if he didn’t make the play himself.
The biggest beneficiaries of those sets were Peppers, Kyle Dugger, and Myles Bryant. Dugger picked up his half a sack off of one of those plays, and Bryant recorded a tackle for a loss. It was a strong game for Bryant all around – he was constantly around the ball and making tackles. He also recorded a pass breakup.
J.C. Jackson struggles again
PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA – DECEMBER 07: Diontae Johnson #18 of the Pittsburgh Steelers stiff arms J.C. Jackson #29 of the New England Patriots in the second half at Acrisure Stadium on December 07, 2023 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
This was another rough game for cornerback J.C. Jackson. He was flagged for a defensive pass interference and a hold, which were both ticky-tack but not inaccurate calls. Jackson was also in coverage on Diontae Johnson’s touchdown.
Coaching was a difference
PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA – DECEMBER 07: Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator Eddie Faulkner looks on before the game against the New England Patriots at Acrisure Stadium on December 07, 2023 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images)
Last week, we highlighted how the Patriots’ late-game coaching decisions played a big part in their loss. This week they were on the other side of things, as Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh coaching staff made some questionable decisions down the stretch. That included burning timeouts early, as well as going very conservative on some fourth-quarter fourth down calls.
The biggest question mark though was from interim offensive coordinator Eddie Faulkner on the final drive of the game. The Steelers had a 3rd & 2 from midfield with 2:05 to go in the game, and just one timeout left. The Steelers could have run the ball on third, with the clock stopping after no matter what for the two-minute warning. Either the Steelers would have picked up the first down, or had the full two-minute warning to decide on a play.
Instead the Steelers put the ball in the hands of quarterback Mitch Trubisky, who struggled all night. They went deep on that third down, and then again on 4th & short. Both passes fell incomplete, and the Steelers wouldn’t get the ball back until there were 15 seconds left in the game. Their best chance to tie the game was squandered with those two decisions.
