Zolak & Bertrand: The Football Card – Week 10
The crew owns a record of 26-19 after Week 9 with Beetle, Zo, T-Bone, and Hardy all winning last week. Unfortunately, Milliken was the only loser once again.
Zo took the under (50.5) for Dolphins-Chiefs in Germany and nailed it. Beetle bet on the Bengals (-1) to handle the Bills and won his 7th straight. Hardy bounced back by putting his faith in the Chiefs (-1.5) to handle Mike McDaniel and company. T-Bone was right about the Raiders (-1.5) responding after firing Josh McDaniels, as they put a beatdown on the Giants. Lastly, Milliken fumbled the parlay again by taking the Patriots (-3) over the Commanders.
One of the biggest questions we get each week is what betting lines do we make our picks from. In past years, sports betting wasn’t allowed in Massachusetts, but that barrier has finally been broken down. Check out Bet MGM to see the exact same lines the guys are looking at.
Scott Zolak/Joe Murray (5-4): Commanders @ Seahawks – Seahawks (-6.5)
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – SEPTEMBER 12: Geno Smith #7 of the Seattle Seahawks celebrates during the first quarter against the Denver Broncos at Lumen Field on September 12, 2022 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
Zo is out, which means Joe Murray is in. After taking a beating against the Ravens last week, the Seahawks are due to bounce back against a Commanders team that barely survived the Patriots last week. Murray has been in on this trend all season, with it bringing home money when the Cowboys and Rams were in similar spots.
Beetle (8-1): 49ers @ Jaguars – 49ers (-3)
SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 22: Brock Purdy #13 of the San Francisco 49ers looks to pass against the Dallas Cowboys during the first quarter in the NFC Divisional Playoff game at Levi’s Stadium on January 22, 2023 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
The 49ers had lost 3 straight heading into their bye, but Beetle is betting on them bouncing back in a big way after their bye. Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams are likely to return on Sunday and speculation about Brock Purdy not being healthy should be in the rearview mirror after a week of rest. Feels like the Jaguars are due for a letdown at home.
Hardy (4-4): Lions @ Chargers – Lions (-3)
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – OCTOBER 22: Quarterback Jared Goff #16 of the Detroit Lions reacts against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium on October 22, 2023 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
Hardy is betting on his hometown Lions to take care of business against the Chargers. Even with the Chargers coming off one of their better wins of the season, the Lions are finally healthy with 3 starters returning to the lineup. Nice spot for Dan Campbell’s crew coming off the bye.
T-Bone (6-3): Lions @ Chargers – OVER 48.5
JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA – JANUARY 14: Austin Ekeler #30 of the Los Angeles Chargers carries the ball against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the first half of the game in the AFC Wild Card playoff game at TIAA Bank Field on January 14, 2023 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images)
T-Bone is joining Hardy on betting this game, but he’s not picking anything with the spread. He’s all about the over, with both offenses currently in the top 10 for points per game.
Milliken (2-7): 49ers @ Jaguars – OVER 45
INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 25: Trevor Lawrence #16 of the Jacksonville Jaguars attempts a pass during the second half against the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium on September 25, 2022 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
Milliken is betting on the 49ers offense doing some damage in this one, especially considering the strength of the Jaguars run defense. Trevor Lawrence’s knee should be in better shape coming off the bye. Both teams should put points on the board in a game that will come down to the final minutes.
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Check out R.J. Bell’s thoughts on our picks!
Another country, another matchup: Patriots vs. Colts What To Watch For
Stop the run
CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – NOVEMBER 05: Jonathan Taylor #28 of the Indianapolis Colts carries the ball during the second quarter of the game against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium on November 05, 2023 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Eakin Howard/Getty Images)
The Colts’ plan to win the game is simply, run the ball. It’s been there identity all year – they’re averaging 134 rushing yards per game in their wins, and 114.8 in their losses. For the season, their 4.3 yards per attempt rank 11th in the league. Since the return of all-pro running back Jonathan Taylor in Week 5 they rank ninth in that category.
Taylor was a problem for the Patriots in that 2021 matchup rushing for 170 yards on 29 carries, including a 67-yard run to ice the game in the fourth quarter. Last year Taylor missed the Patriots matchup, and without him the Colts ran for just 78 yards on 22 carries.
With Taylor, the key it to hit him early and not let him build steam. This year he’s averaging more yards after first contact per carry (2.3) than before (1.8). He’s also breaking a tackle on average every 7.8 carries – a career best.
For the Patriots to get to Taylor early, they’ll need to win at the line of scrimmage. That puts defensive tackles Christian Barmore and Davon Godchaux in the spotlight.
As much as the Patriots’ defense struggled last week, Barmore and Godchaux were the lone bright spots. Barmore, in particular, has been arguably the Patriots’ best player for the last month. Meanwhile, they’ll be going against a Colts interior offensive line that has struggled this year. In particular, four-time All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson hasn’t been himself this year – especially against the run. His 56.3 PFF run blocking grade to this point is a career low.
If the Patriots can win up front and slow down the running game it will force the Colts to put the ball in the hands of backup quarterback Gardner Minshew (starter Anthony Richardson is out for the season). While Minshew is one of the league’s best backups, he hasn’t been able to consistently win games throwing the ball in his career.
Minshew has thrown for over 300 yards eight times in his career, and is 0-8 in those games. When throwing for over 250 yards, he’s 3-11. Even with their banged-up secondary, it would benefit the Patriots to have Minshew and the passing game decide this game for the Colts, not Taylor and the running game.
What will the wide receiver rotation look like?
Aug 10, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots wide receiver Tyquan Thornton (11) during the first half against the Houston Texans at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
Another week, another chance to see how the Patriots view their wide receiver room. Which players will get more or less of a chance compared to how much they played last week?
Just as a refresher, Demario Douglas played the most snaps of any Patriots wide receiver last week at 83 percent. Jalen Reagor was next at 77 percent, followed by JuJu Smith-Schuster at 36 percent. Tyquan Thornton played 19 percent of the snaps but those all came early in the game – he was benched four minutes into the second quarter. Additionally tight end Mike Gesicki, who Bill Belichick called the team’s “fourth receiver,” played 86 percent of the snaps as the team relied heavily on ’12’ personnel.
With DeVante Parker ruled out for the second week in a row, the personnel available is the same as last week. Will anything change though? Will Thornton’s benching carry over to another week? If it does, the Patriots may not have any choice but to finally activate rookie Kayshon Boutte. If both Thornton and Boutte don’t play the Patriots are leaving themselves very thin in terms of personnel at the position, and will have to ask for a lot from Gesicki.
A clean game from the special teams units
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – NOVEMBER 05: Brenden Schooler #41 of the New England Patriots reacts during the second half in the game against the Washington Commanders at Gillette Stadium on November 05, 2023 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
The Patriots’ special teams units have struggled all season, but last week their mistakes were magnified. While the defense was able to work around a 37-yard kickoff return to open the game, penalties on punts late in the game proved costly.
In what is likely to be a low-scoring, ball-control, field position battle against the Colts, the Patriots can’t afford to make similar special teams mistakes. This is a week the Patriots need the kicking units to be a positive, not a negative.
One other thing to watch on special teams – the scoreboard. Last week’s game in Frankfurt between the Chiefs and Dolphins saw punters hitting the suspended scoreboard at Deutsche Bank Park during warm-ups. Prior to the Patriots’ Week 4 game in Dallas we highlighted the challenges a low scoreboard can pose on special teams – those will all be in play again this week.
