An early sign of how the Patriots’ player evaluation strategy will change post-Bill Belichick
When projecting for the New England Patriots in the draft the past few years, we’ve had over two decades of context and trends from the Bill Belichick era to go off of. With Belichick now gone and a new-look group heading up the front office, it’s time for those of us on the outside looking in to rebuild the Patriots’ draft strategy profile from scratch.
What will that look like? One new report added some important information as to how the Patriots will approach the draft process, likely not just this year but for the foreseeable future.
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According to Jonathan Jones of CBS, the Patriots will be “transitioning” their grading system for players in the offseason, which includes NFL Draft prospects. Jones specifically names Alonzo Highsmith, who joined the team last week as a ‘senior personnel executive,’ as somebody who will help with that transition.
What will the change be? Jones expects it to look something like the early 2010’s Green Bay Packers evaluation process. Both Highsmith and new de facto GM Eliot Wolf were a part of the front office in Green Bay during that time.
“Whereas Belichick’s Patriots had stringent grading rules on specific players and their fits in organization,” Jones writes, “the Packers’ system has long been noted to emphasize traits like athleticism, versatility and explosiveness.”
Now, by the time that report was put out our Patriots Mock Draft 1.0 was pretty much done. However, a number of the players we took for the Patriots have one or more of those traits highlighting their scouting reports. Here’s a look at the full mock, and how it pairs with this new reported Patriots draft strategy…
Barth's Patriots Mock Draft 1.0: New names, new faces, new era
With the Super Bowl in the books, the NFL offseason is officially underway! With that, it’s time for our annual “Monday after the Super Bowl” Patriots mock draft (all seven rounds).
While this is the start of the offseason for the NFL, the Patriots have already been very busy in the month since their season ended. The coaching staff – now led by Jerod Mayo – is in the process of being overhauled. Bill Belichick’s departure left a void in the front office too, with Eliot Wolf and Matt Groh seemingly emerging as the new leaders of the department.
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That all makes this year’s mock drafts more challenging then most. Remember, these mocks aren’t what I would do or want to see happen. It’s using the information available to try to best guess what will happen.
In the past, we had 20-plus years of data on Belichick’s draft trends and tendencies. That’s all out the window. While some of those preferences are likely to carry over with Wolf and Groh, there is some real uncharted territory here too. Reading the tea leaves in terms of quotes from the two and other reports will be more important this year.
Jul 26, 2023; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots director of player personnel Matt Groh speaks at training camp at Gillette Stadium. Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
Meanwhile, because it’s so early in the process we’ll have to make a couple of assumptions/predictions for this mock draft. First and most simply, the NFL has not released the full draft order yet. The final four rounds won’t be finalized until comp picks are announced later this month. While the Patriots won’t have any comp picks, the overall distribution of picks by round can change the slots of the picks that follow. Given that, the exact selections in Rounds 4-7 are approximated based on the comp pick projects from OverTheCap.com.
Finally, we’re going to have to make some projections about what the Patriots do in free agency, both internally and externally. The list of the Patriots’ 24 pending free agents this offseason can be found here. We’ll touch on individual players as we go through the draft but here are some assumptions we’re going to make for the time being…
— Anfernee Jennings returns, Josh Uche signs elsewhere
— Mike Onwenu doesn’t return (it’s been reported things are trending this way)
— The Patriots sign one of the top free agent wide receivers (see Robert Kraft’s recent comments on cash spending)
— Baker Mayfield re-signs with the Buccaneers
Alright, a 400-word setup for a Patriots mock draft might be a record. Let’s get to the picks already!
Round 1, Pick 3:
QB Drake Maye, UNC
PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA – SEPTEMBER 23: Drake Maye #10 of the North Carolina Tar Heels celebrates after a North Carolina Tar Heels touchdown in the first quarter against the Pittsburgh Panthers at Acrisure Stadium on September 23, 2023 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
How does Maye get to the Patriots at No. 3? It could happen one of two ways – both of which seem to be in play. Both relate to the Washington Commanders hiring Kliff Kingsbury as their offensive coordinator. Kingsbury was previously at USC, where he worked with projected top pick Caleb Williams – a DC native. Did Kingsbury go to Washington knowing he’d be reunited with Williams in his quarterback’s hometown? If that happens it likely means the Bears want to keep Justin Fields, and would most likely take Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. second overall.
The other scenario is one in which Washington keeps the No. 2 pick. Still needing a quarterback, Jayden Daniels projects as a better fit for what Kingsbury does offensively than Maye. The building rumors in recent weeks that Daniels could jump Maye materialize. Either way, it feels like there’s a real chance that the Kingsbury hire in Washington delivers the Patriots Maye at No 3.
So why Maye, and not Harrison (if he’s still on the board) or Notre Dame tackle Joe Alt (a pick that could include a trade-down)? The Patriots are re-building their offense, and there’s very little evidence in the last 5-10 years of successful rebuilds started with a wide receiver in the draft. Instead, the Patriots build that position back up via a strong free agency class and a promising Day 2 class in the draft (something we touched on here). The tackle class as good depth as well, and it’s tough to pass on the kind of talent available at the third pick, with the goal being to not pick this high in the draft again for a long time.
Instead the Patriots end up with Maye, whose ability to throw on the run and hit deep balls would be a great fit in the offense new offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt ran in Cleveland. There are certainly areas of Maye’s game that need cleaning up, specifically learning to pick his spots taking risks with the football, but he has the upside of a player that can not just lead an offense, but elevate the players put around him.
Full Drake Maye scouting report here.
Round 2, Pick 34:
TRADE!
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – SEPTEMBER 17: A view of New England Patriots helmets on the bench prior to a game against the Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium on September 17, 2023 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
Patriots get:
— 41st overall pick (2nd round)
— 57th overall pick (2nd round)
— 2025 3rd-round pickPackers get:
— 34th overall pick (2nd round)
— 2025 2nd-round pickThere’s been a lot of talk about the Patriots moving down from the third overall pick to add additional top-100 assets in a top-heavy draft in which they have multiple needs. As mentioned above, passing on a chance to pick third overall may be too rich, but why not make that move down in the second round? Here, the Patriots borrow a top 50 pick from next year in order to add an extra one this year.
This trade is modeled after one the Cardinals and Titans made last year, with the Cardinals moving back from 33 to 41 while picking up an additional top-100 pick. On the NFL trade value chart the Patriots get 276 points worth of picks here and give up 255 (it’s common for the team trading up to slightly overpay in these kinds of deals).
Round 2, Pick 41 (from Packers):
OT Patrick Paul, Houston
Sep 30, 2023; Lubbock, Texas, USA; Houston Cougars offensive tackle Patrick Paul (76) blocks Texas Tech Red Raiders defensive end Joseph Adedire (14) in the second half at Jones AT&T Stadium and Cody Campbell Field. Credit: Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
With so much tackle talent projected to go in the top 50 this year, the Patriots can afford to move down a bit and still land a player who should be a Year 1 starter. In this scenario that’s Paul, who brings all of the natural traits to the position teams look for. Paul checked in at the Senior Bowl at 6-foot-7, 333 pounds and 36 2/8-inch arms, which gave him the longest reach of any lineman at the event.
Size isn’t all there is to Paul’s game though. He moves well for his size, and he’s not one of those bigger lineman fast edge rushers can just run around rather than going through – he can get out to the edge and get into his set. Paul also comes into the NFL with a ton of experience – he started 44 games at left tackle for the Cougars, was a full-time starter the last three years, and a team captain in 2022 and 2023.
So why does Paul fall behind some of the other tackles. For a bigger guy, he gets caught upright at times and he could be more effective by improving his hand technique. Those aren’t uncommon knocks for rookie tackles, and new Patriots offensive line coach Scott Peters just was part of a Browns staff that got 6-foot-8, 375-pound Dawand Jones up to speed last year. If Peters can have similar success with Paul, the Patriots will have themselves a plus-starter at left tackle as a rookie.
Round 2, Pick 57 (from Packers):
TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, Texas
Oct 28, 2023; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders (0) makes a catch over Brigham Young Cougars defensive back Graham Gillespie (38) during the second half at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Credit: Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports
People are probably wondering where the wide receiver is already but – one, as we said in the beginning we’re projecting the Patriots to sign a top wide receiver in free agency and – two, tight end is also a pressing need with none of the Patriots’ three tight ends from 2023 under contract for 2024.
That need becomes even more pressing when taking into account just how important the tight ends were in Alex Van Pelt’s offense in Cleveland. Last year David Njoku led the Browns in catches (81) and touchdowns (6) while finishing second in yards (882). That should have the Patriots looking for a more explosive, well-rounded tight end than the three they had in 2023.
As luck would have it there’s a tight end in this draft that projects to be a very similar player to Njoku in Sanders. At 6-foot-4, 252 pounds Sanders is an elite athlete who is explosive both as a vertical receiving threat and by getting the ball underneath and running after the catch. He has a diverse route tree that allows him to line up at multiple spots in the formation. The Patriots could pair him with a free agent veteran TE2 – perhaps Harrison Bryant or Austin Hooper who played for Van Pelt in Cleveland – to fill out their tight end room.
Round 3, Pick 68:
WR Roman Wilson, Michigan
Sep 30, 2023; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Michigan Wolverines wide receiver Roman Wilson (1) during the third quarter against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Memorial Stadium. Credit: Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports
This was a tough choice, mainly between Wilson and USC wideout Brenden Rice (Jerry’s son). The tiebreaker was style of play. With most of the top wide receivers available this offseason true ‘X’ players (ex. Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman, Mike Evans) like Rice, his skillset may end up being redundant. In Wilson, the Patriots would add a more hybrid ‘Z’ type receiver. With Kendrick Bourne a pending free agent and coming off a torn ACL, that spot is definitely a need.
Wilson wasn’t overly productive during his college career Michigan’s run-heavy offense, and comes into the league a bit on the smaller side (he checked in at 5-foot-10, 186 pounds at the Senior Bowl). That being said, the dude can flat-out get open. He put on a route-running clinic at the Senior Bowl and showed some of the vertical-threat ability he flashed at Michigan. Add in upper-level straight-line speed, and he looks like a guy that can be a multi-faceted contributor at the next level. If the Patriots could pair Wilson with a true, experienced ‘X’ and Demario Douglas in the slot, they’d certainly be giving Maye (or whoever the starting quarterback is) plenty to work with.
Round 4, Pick 104:
TRADE!
Sep 18, 2022; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; A New England Patriots helmet on the sidelines against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the fourth quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Patriots get:
— 119th overall pick (4th round)
— 151st overall pick (5th round)Seahawks get:
— 104th overall pick (4th round)
— 2025 7th round pickJust like they did at the top of Day 2, the Patriots make a move back early on Day 3 in order to add assets. To do so they part ways with one of the three seventh-round picks they have in 2025. This deal is based on a pair of trades that were made with the first two fourth-round picks last year, that saw the Bears and Texans move down to add assets. On the trade chart the Patriots get 35 points worth of picks, while giving up 34.
Round 4, Pick 119 (from Seahawks):
EDGE Mohamed Kamara, Colorado State
Nov 11, 2023; Fort Collins, Colorado, USA; San Diego State Aztecs quarterback Jalen Mayden (18) is tackled by Colorado State Rams defensive lineman Mohamed Kamara (8) during the second quarter at Sonny Lubick Field at Canvas Stadium. Credit: Andrew Wevers-USA TODAY Sports
The Patriots start off Day 3 with their first defensive player of the draft. With Josh Uche a pending free agent and Matthew Judon entering a contract year with no guaranteed money in 2024, pass-rushing linebacker is a sneaky important need for the Patriots.
To fill it they turn their attention towards one of the top Group of Five players in this draft in Kamara. The 2023 Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year, Kamara dominated the competition this year in his second full season as a starter. His 64 pressures ranked third among all draft-eligible players in 2023, and his 14 sacks ranked fourth. Kamara then went to Dallas and dominated at the Shrine Bowl.
When rushing the passer Karama plays with a relentless aggression and motor. That’s generally a positive and keeps him in every play, and he ends up around the ball in situations you wouldn’t expect an edge rusher to do so. Occasionally that aggressiveness can be used to get him, and he’ll need to hone his instincts in that regard at the NFL level. In addition to his motor and play strength Kamara also shows a good understanding of pass rush technique, and sequences moves together in order to beat blockers.
Playing in a lesser conference and being a bit undersized for his position (6-foot-1, 252 pounds) will push Kamara down the board some, but he’d be a great fit in the Patriots’ defensive system.
Round 5, Pick 136:
OT Javon Foster, Missouri
Nov 25, 2022; Columbia, Missouri, USA; Missouri Tigers offensive lineman Javon Foster (76) on the line against the Arkansas Razorbacks during the game at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
This was another tough choice, with Washington’s Roger Rosengarten also on the board. Both are good developmental tackles, but Foster’s experience, positional flexibility, and size make him the pick here. A 6-foot-5, 309-pound tackle with 35-inch arms, Foster has experience playing both left and right tackle for the Tigers, although he started the last three years on the left side.
When he’s on his game, Foster plays with a mean streak and uses his big frame to envelop direct pass rushers, and has the athleticism to move with quicker rushers. He’s also good at recognizing how pass rushers are trying to attack him. However, he’ll have to add play strength once he’s in the NFL, and needs to be more technically sound in his lower half. Still, his extensive experience and overall build should make him a solid two-way third tackle as a rookie, with a chance to grow into a starter in Year 2 or 3 on either side of the line.
Round 5, Pick 151 (from SEA):
RB Cody Schrader, Missouri
Oct 21, 2023; Columbia, Missouri, USA; Missouri Tigers running back Cody Schrader (7) runs the ball against South Carolina Gamecocks defensive tackle D’Andre Martin (99) during the first half at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
The Patriots go back-to-back Tigers in the fifth round and take Schrader here. After a four-year career at Division-II Truman State, Schrader transferred to Missouri in 2022 then broke out in 2023 for 1,627 yards and 14 touchdowns in 13 games. He was voted a consensus All-American after the season.
Schrader is a physical ball-carrier and a tough tackle at 5-foot-8, 207 pounds. He averaged 3.1 yards after contact last year, and his 51 broken tackles on 277 carries ranked fifth among draft-eligible Power Five running backs last year. He’s flashed some passing-down skills too, both as a receiver (he caught 22 passes for 191 yards last year) and pass blocker.
With Rhamondre Stevenson entering a contract year and Ezekiel Elliott a free agent, Schrader could come in and be a leading candidate for the spell back role behind Stevenson in 2024, and has enough upside to potentially become the lead back in 2025 if Stevenson doesn’t return.
Round 6, Pick 182:
DB Jaylin Simpson, Auburn
NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – NOVEMBER 04: Jaylin Simpson #36 of the Auburn Tigers recovers a fumble during the first half of the game against the Vanderbilt Commodores at FirstBank Stadium on November 04, 2023 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Johnnie Izquierdo/Getty Images)
The Patriots have a couple of lower-level needs in their secondary. They could use a third boundary corner, and a developmental free safety. In Simpson, they could be getting both.
A four-year starter for the Tigers, the 5-foot-11, 178-pound Simpson began his career playing almost exclusively boundary cornerback. In 2022 he started playing more deep safety, a spot that became his primary assignment in 2023 when he posted a career-high 87.4 PFF coverage grade, as well as four interceptions, four more pass breakups, and a 54.0 opposing passer rating. Simpson further helped his case with a strong week at the Senior Bowl. However, not having a true position, as well as his frame limiting his tackling ability, will have Simpson further down some draft boards.
In New England, the Patriots could use Simpson as a rotational cornerback while developing him as a free safety. If he develops enough he can take on a starting role there, if not he still should be able to offer depth at multiple spots on the defense. His athleticism should also allow him to contribute on special teams.
Round 7, Pick 235 (from Bears):
LB Jackson Sirmon, Cal
Sep 3, 2022; Berkeley, California, USA; California Golden Bears linebacker Jackson Sirmon (8) during the fourth quarter against the UC Davis Aggies at FTX Field at California Memorial Stadium. Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
With the pick they got in exchange for N’Keal Harry, the Patriots grab Sirmon to round out their draft. After four years at Washington, Sirmon transferred to Cal in 2022 and had a highly-productive year recording 104 tackles, 3.5 sacks, and three pass breakups in a first-team All-Pac-12 season. Voted a captain in 2023 Sirmon’s season got off to a hot start before he suffered a season-ending biceps injury in Week 6. However, he was able to return for the Senior Bowl and displayed the high-level instincts and physicality that he showcased at Cal. At 6-foot-2, 235 pounds with a knack for finding his way to the football, Sirmon would compete for a depth off-ball linebacker spot in New England, helped by his ability to feature on special teams.
