Sep 10, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots linebacker Matthew Judon (9) prepares for a game against the Philadelphia Eagles during the warm-up period at Gillette Stadium. Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
Most of the early talk about the New England Patriots’ offseason has been about the offensive side of the ball – quarterbacks, receivers, offensive line, and on and on. That makes sense, given the Patriots ranked 31st in scoring in the NFL in 2023 and finished the season without a definitive answer at the quarterback position.
At the same time, that doesn’t mean there are no questions on defense. In fact, there’s a big offseason decision looming – involving arguably the best player on that side of the ball – that has gone almost completely undiscussed in the dialog around this upcoming offseason.
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Early in training camp last year, the Patriots adjusted linebacker Matthew Judon’s contract after he began the summer with an unofficial ‘hold-in.’ Originally due only $2 million in guaranteed money for the 2023 season, the Patriots increased that number to $14 million. Part of the way the Patriots made that work was ‘borrowing’ money, moving it up from the 2024 portion of his deal.
Now 2024 is here and Judon, who will turn 32 in August and is coming off of a season-ending biceps injury he suffered in early October, enters the final year of the four-year, $56 million contract he signed with the Patriots back in the spring of 2021 (the contract also has a $2.3 million void year in 2025, with the contract voiding the day before the franchise tag deadline next spring). However, because of the money maneuvering the Patriots did last summer, Judon’s deal does not include any guaranteed money for his upcoming contract year.
As Patriots salary cap expert Miguel Benzan pointed out when Judon’s deal was redone back in August, that move was more of a temporary measure, and Judon will likely need another contract adjustment again before the 2024 season starts. However this time there are no future years for the Patriots to borrow from, given it’s an expiring contract.
Have confirmed Matthew Judon's new deal has $500K of 2023 LTBE incentives and that a void year was indeed added to the deal.
— Patscap (@patscap) August 8, 2023
Patriots created $1,666,667 of cap space in 2023 while also creating $666,667 of space in 2024. Trade-off = $2,333,334 of 2025 dead money now scheduled. pic.twitter.com/PRltvFM2j9
On Thursday, Judon appeared on Felger & Mazz and was asked about his future with the team. “I have another year on my contract, so I’m back,” Judon started, before being asked about his contract. When that topic game up, Mike Felger asked Judon if he’s happy with his contract and “happy with where the number is.”
“I’m happy that I’m still able to play football,” Judon replied. “Numbers, I’ll let my agent and Matt [Groh] or whoever is figuring that out – and we’ll go on by that. But I think the best thing about the game is playing it and being a part of it, and that’s what that’s what I want to do.”
“This game is a business. It’s a business,” Judon continued. “I just want to play the game, but I also have to win at the business aspect.”
Asked if he’s had any conversations with the new-look coaching staff and front office yet, Judon said he has but those have mostly been about football. “They say they want me there. I want to be there, but like I said, business is business.” he replied.
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Assuming the Patriots do want to keep Judon, it sounds like they will need to take care of the business side of things before he gets back on the field. Not doing anything could create a very similar situation to the one the team dealt with cornerback Stephon Gilmore in 2021.
In 2020, the Patriots had advanced a chunk of Gilmore’s 2021 salary after his 2019 Defensive Player of the Year season. He came into 2021 due very little money, and was recovering from a quad injury he suffered the previous season. The Patriots ended up doing nothing to address his contract (in part due to salary cap constraints they had at the time).
Gilmore opened that season on PUP and in October was traded to the Carolina Panthers for a sixth-round pick. Gilmore has since continued to play at a high level, and had 13 pass breakups and two picks for the Dallas Cowboys last year at 33 years old.
So, what are the Patriots’ options to avoid a similar outcome with Judon this offseason? Let’s take a look…
Short-term deal
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – OCTOBER 09: Matthew Judon #9 of the New England Patriots sacks Jared Goff #16 of the Detroit Lions during the first half at Gillette Stadium on October 09, 2022 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Nick Grace/Getty Images)
The easiest option would be for the Patriots to either redo Judon’s 2024 deal or extend Judon’s current contract by a year or two. While that may be appealing to the team – they wouldn’t tie themselves to a 32-year-old coming off an injury for an extended period of time – it would likely cost them.
Judon has been highly productive during his time in New England. In his last full year in 2022 he had 15.5 sacks in 17 games, then had four sacks and 11 total pressures in three and a half games last year before getting hurt. At a position where more players make an impact into their 30s than average, Judon could realistically get one more ‘big’ contract if he has a solid year then hits free agency at the age of 32.
OverTheCap.com estimates Judon’s value at somewhere between $10.5 and $11.2 million, so this option would likely be towards the higher end or even above the top of that estimate. That could be adding guaranteed money in just 2024, or tacking on a year in 2025 to maintain some financial flexibility.
Long-term deal
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – SEPTEMBER 12: Matt Judon #9 of the New England Patriots reacts against the Miami Dolphins during the first half at Gillette Stadium on September 12, 2021 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
If the Patriots believe Judon will continue to be an impactful player into his mid-30s, they could be the team that gives him that long-term deal. That would allow them to keep Judon, who isn’t just a key player on defense but a leading locker room voice, in the building through their current rebuild.
What would that contact look like? At this point we’re probably talking about at least three new guaranteed years, in addition to 2024. A contract like that isn’t unhear of – the Green Bay Packers gave a 30-year-old Preston Smith a four-year extension (that didn’t kick in until his age 31 season) that was worth up to $52 million, but only $12.5 million total was guaranteed. Judon will likely command more guaranteed money than that, but the duration and maximum value would be a realistic starting spot.
That all being said, the Patriots’ next competitive window would be in the latter part of that deal, when Judon is well into his mid-30s. The Patriots may have better use for that money by then. This kind of contract would be more of a surprise.
Trade
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – DECEMBER 18: Matthew Judon #9 of the New England Patriots reacts during the fourth quarter against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium on December 18, 2022 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Getty Images)
If the Patriots and Judon can’t reach a deal, the team could look to trade him. If that’s the case, moving him in the spring would maximize the return given teams are still in the roster building phase. More teams would have the financial flexibility to add him, increasing his market.
It’s not unrealistic to think the Patriots could get at least a top-100, if not a top-50 pick for Judon. The most recent example of a similar player being traded is when Khalil Mack went from the Bears to the Chargers in 2022 heading into his age-31 season. Mack, like Judon now, was also coming off of a season-ending injury at the time. Still, the Chargers gave up a second-overall pick (48th overall) and future sixth to get Mack.
Would Judon be worth the same return? His production (32 sacks, 62 QB hits, and 33 tackles for loss in 38 games over the last three years) actually significantly out-paces Mack over the three years leading up to his trade (23.5 sacks, 34 QB hits, and 25 tackles for loss in 39 games). However, Judon doesn’t have the resume Mack does (NFL Defensive Player of the Year, four-time first-team All-Pro) and will need a new contract (Mack was signed for three more years when he was traded).
Overall, the value should be comparable. If the Patriots can’t get a deal done contract-wise with Judon, trading him should be an option. While that would create another need at a premium position (pass rusher), the team would now have an extra premium asset in the draft pick, as well as a little additional cap space (a Judon trade would open up $4.4 million in 2024) to fill that need.
Nothing
Dec 17, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots linebacker Matthew Judon (9) greets fans before a game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Gillette Stadium. Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
Definitely not the best option. But the Patriots could take a wait-and-see approach like they did with Stephon Gilmore in 2021, and see how Judon looks in camp after missing most of last year with an injury.
If they like what they see they can give Judon a new contract, but having proven himself his price may go up by that point. If they don’t feel it makes sense to keep him on the team they could trade him, but his value will most likely be lower at that point – when teams have already spent all their money and set their rosters – than it would be during the team-building portion of the calendar in the spring.
