It’s been about a month since the last time I projected the Red Sox lineup and with Opening Day less than a week away, let’s do it again.
Alex Cora has dropped plenty of nuggets about some of the options he’s considering from 1-9. Not to mention, a month of spring training games has helped paint the picture a bit as well. I’ll be the first one to raise my hand and say I’m excited about Triston Casas getting some leadoff opportunities.
But without revealing anything else, here’s my best guess at how the Red Sox will be filling out their lineup card on March 30th against the Orioles and Kyle Gibson.
FYI: All projections come from Steamer. Also, check out my Lineup Projection 1.0/2.0 from last month.
1. Triston Casas
BOSTON, MA – SEPTEMBER 4: Triston Casas #36 of the Boston Red Sox follows through on his first major league hit, a single against the Texas Rangers during the sixth inning at Fenway Park on September 4, 2022 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo By Winslow Townson/Getty Images)
123 Games – 492 PA – .247/.351/.451./801 – 19 HR – 23 2B – 62 RBI – 124 wRC+
Last week, Cora went out his way to note that Triston Casas was going to see some time in the leadoff spot this season, especially against righties. Over the offseason, I was a heavy supporter of this, but didn’t expect Cora to go that route after emphasizing the need to ease him in. Casas has mashed so far this spring, while being applauded for making pitchers work wherever he was slotted in the lineup.
Many old school baseball fans might faint at the thought of a big and burly slugger at the top of the order, but the game has changed. Just look at Kyle Schwarber’s time on the 2021 Red Sox and as the leadoff hitter for a Phillies team that reached the World Series last year. Casas’ OBP skills are exactly what you want in-front of a hitter like Rafael Devers.
2. Rafael Devers
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – AUGUST 14: Rafael Devers #11 of the Boston Red Sox watches the ball after hitting a two-run home run against the New York Yankees during the sixth inning at Fenway Park on August 14, 2022 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Brian Fluharty/Getty Images)
150 Games – 662 PA- .277/.345/.510/.855 – 32 HR – 39 2B – 100 RBI – 134 wRC+
It scared me a bit when Cora had mentioned the idea of Rafael Devers hitting anywhere but second, since that’s where the best hitter in your lineup should be slotted. But throughout spring training Devers has been penciled in right behind the leadoff hitter and has continued to do damage. He should feast on RBI opportunities with Casas right in front of him.
3. Justin Turner
Mar 2, 2023; Fort Myers, Florida, USA; Boston Red Sox third baseman Justin Turner (2) singles during the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at JetBlue Park at Fenway South. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
126 Games – 541 PA – .267/.343/.421/.765 – 14 HR – 30 2B – 66 RBI – 114 wRC+
Even before Justin Turner somehow took a baseball straight to the face and returned in two weeks, Cora made it clear that he’d be hitting behind Devers no matter what the lineup configuration was. He offers the best protection the Red Sox can put behind Devers at the moment, thanks to his ability to make pitchers work, draw walks, and put the ball in play. Not to mention, you have to break things up with a righty if you’re starting the lineup lefty-lefty against right-handed pitchers.
4. Masataka Yoshida
FORT MYERS, FLORIDA – FEBRUARY 27: Masataka Yoshida #7 of the Boston Red Sox at bat against the Minnesota Twins during the first inning at JetBlue Park at Fenway South on February 27, 2023 in Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
122 Games – 565 PA – .298/.388/.510/885 – 18 HR – 29 2B – 61 RBI – 140 wRC+
Throughout the offseason and early in spring training, everyone expected Masataka Yoshida to be the leadoff hitter the Red Sox have been looking for in recent years. Cora seemed to feed into it as well with his comments at Winter Weekend. But after Yoshida settled in at Fenway South, it became clear they viewed him as their answer in the clean-up spot.
Yoshida batted fourth a majority of the time in the NPB and his performance in the World Baseball Classic showed his ability as a run producer. Yes, there’s still a bunch of unknowns surrounding his adjustment to MLB, but the Red Sox are pretty confident he’s going to hit at this level. Having Casas, Devers, Turner, and Yoshida at the top of the lineup won’t make for many easy outs as starting pitchers try to settle into games.
5. Adam Duvall
Mar 12, 2023; Fort Myers, Florida, USA; Boston Red Sox center fielder Adam Duvall (18) round the bases after hitting a solo home run against the New York Yankees in the fifth inning during spring training at JetBlue Park at Fenway South. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
104 Games – 425 PA – .213/.272/.417/.689 – 20 HR – 17 2B – 55 RBI – 88 wRC+
I’ll be honest, I’ve been hesitant to pencil Adam Duvall into the No. 5 spot because of his strikeout tendencies and history of being streaky. But he’s been impressive this spring after a slow start with 4 homers and 6 walks in 16 games. While my leash would be short here, he offers some power behind some heavy on-base guys and stops another lefty-lefty cluster in the lineup.
6. Alex Verdugo
Oct 11, 2021; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox left fielder Alex Verdugo (99) reacts after hitting a one-run RBI double against the Tampa Bay Rays during the third inning during the third inning during game four of the 2021 ALDS at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
138 Games – 586 PA – .281/.388/.429/.767 – 14 HR – 34 2B – 113 wRC+
Alex Verdugo in the 6th spot helps lengthen this lineup a bit and offers a completely different approach following Duvall. Last season, Verdugo landed in the 92nd percentile for K%, Whiff%, and xBA. While he won’t ever bring a ton of thump, I still think he’s capable of breaking out this season and hitting around .300, especially after putting in the work this offseason.
7. Kiké Hernández
130 Games – 581 PA – .239/.310/.397/.708 – 16 HR – 31 2B – 60 RBI – 97 wRC+
It feels a bit weird to place Kike Hernandez so low in the lineup after the last few seasons, but realistically this is where his bat profiles best against righties. Cora has made it clear that the leadoff spot will fluctuate depending on matchups, with Hernandez being in the mix against lefties along with Christian Arroyo and Rob Refsnyder. The Red Sox could really use another 2021 type season from Hernandez, with him offering some pop towards the bottom of the lineup.
8. Reese McGuire/Connor Wong (Jorge Alfaro?)
Sep 13, 2022; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox catcher Reese McGuire (3) hits a home run during the third inning against the New York Yankees at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports
McGuire: 75 Games – 286 PA – .241/.294/.365/.658 – 5 HR – 15 2B – 28 RBI – 82 wRC+
Wong: 42 Games – 167 PA -.249/.300/.436/.736 – 6 HR – 9 2B – 28 RBI – 102 wRC+
Reese McGuire did nothing but hit after being traded to the Red Sox last season posting a 145 wRC+ in 36 games. While it’s impossible to expect that type of production again, he offers a lefty bat following Hernandez in the lineup and should be fine in a platoon role.
It’s fair to question who will be the back-up catcher on Opening Day, but I’m still leaning towards Connor Wong with the strides he’s made healthwise and the 40-man roster implications. When Wong is in the lineup, it’s clear the lineup construction will be shaken up with Arroyo in the mix for the leadoff spot.
9. Christian Arroyo/ Yu Chang/Adalberto Mondesi (Eventually)
BOSTON, MA – JUNE 10: Christian Arroyo #39 of the Boston Red Sox reacts as he rounds the bases after hitting a three-run home run in the fifth inning of a game against the Houston Astros at Fenway Park on June 10, 2021 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)
Arroyo: 70 Games – 283 PA – .263/.314/.419/.733 – 8 HR – 15 2B – 33 RBI – 102 wRC+
Chang: 19 Games – 78 PA – .227/.291/.377/.668 – 2 HR – 4 2B – 8 RBI – 85 wRC+
Mondesi: 107 Games – 416 PA – .232/.278/.390/.668 -12 HR – 20 2B – 28 RBI – 83 wRC+
First off, Christian Arroyo has really impressed me this spring by swinging the bat well and showing off some solid defense at second base. It’s clear the weight he dropped has made him regain some of the athleticism he lost. Over the last two seasons, he’s shown the ability to be a solid and steady bat when healthy, which is perfect as the lineup turns over.
It’s the same reason Arroyo seems heavily in the mix to leadoff against lefties. It’s not that he’s ever going to hit for an insanely high average or pop 20 homers, but it’s a professional at-bat that constantly puts the ball in play. In 2022, he lowered his K% to 16.4% after being at 24.3% in 2021.
