Is it officially “full throttle” season? No, I wouldn’t go that far, but at least the engine is finally starting to show some life. Especially when it comes to addressing what sunk the Red Sox most in 2023.
After months of Red Sox fans clinging to countless rumors about which starting pitchers Craig Breslow and the front office were eyeing, he finally made his first addition to the group last night by signing Lucas Giolito to a 2-year deal worth $38.5 MM ($1 MM in incentives for each season). This includes an opt-out after the first year with a $1MM buyout, along with a conditional option for 2026 that becomes a $14 MM club option if Giolito throws less than 140 innings in 2025. Although, it has the chance to be a mutual option if Giolito reaches or tops that innings benchmark for $19 MM with another buyout of $1.5 MM.
Just taking a look at Giolito’s last two seasons, it’s clear he hasn’t been anywhere close to the guy that received Cy Young votes in 3 straight seasons from 2019-2021. Still, I think it’s important to look at the context behind both years, because it paints a different picture than just a bloated ERA.
In 2022, Giolito saw his ERA spike up to an ugly 4.90 across 30 starts, as his BB/9 jumped from 2.6 to 3.4 and his H/9 worsened from 7.3 to 9.5. Still, he didn’t have trouble missing bats with a 25.4 K% and he was basically giving up homers at the same rate he did in 2021. This pointed to some bad defense costing him in a big way, with his FIP rolling in at 4.06 alongside an infuriating .340 BABIP (.278 for his career).
So, instead of 2022 just looking like a lost year if you quickly scan Giolito’s stat page, it was more of a mediocre season as you looked underneath the hood. Still, there were some clear signs of regression that ended up bleeding into his 2023 performance as well. But if this can be the floor for him next season, I think the Red Sox front office would be satisfied with a Rick Porcello type year that brings some badly needed stability to the group.
